Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices

A large body of transport sector-focused research recognizes the complexity of human behavior in relation to mobility. Yet, global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which are widely used to evaluate the costs, potentials, and consequences of different greenhouse gas emission trajectories over the medium-to-long term, typically represent behavior and the end use of energy as a simple rational choice between available alternatives, even though abundant empirical evidence shows that real-world decision making is more complex and less routinely rational. This paper demonstrates the value of incorporating certain features of consumer behavior in IAMs, focusing on light-duty vehicle (LDV) purchase decisions. An innovative model formulation is developed to represent heterogeneous consumer groups with varying preferences for vehicle novelty, range, refueling/recharging availability, and variety. The formulation is then implemented in the transport module of MESSAGE-Transport, a global IAM, although it also has the generic flexibility to be applied in energy-economy models with varying set-ups. Comparison of conventional and ‘behaviorally-realistic’ model runs with respect to vehicle purchase decisions shows that consumer preferences may slow down the transition to alternative fuel (low-carbon) vehicles. Consequently, stronger price-based incentives and/or non-price based measures may be needed to transform the global fleet of passenger vehicles, at least in the initial market phases of novel alternatives. Otherwise, the mitigation burden borne by other transport sub-sectors and other energy sectors could be higher than previously estimated. More generally, capturing behavioral features of energy consumers in global IAMs increases their usefulness to policy makers by allowing a more realistic assessment of a more diverse suite of policies.     

A modeling framework for impact assessment of urban transport systems

An integrated software tool environment is presented, and a methodology is proposed for the operational support of the local authority, for analysis of the impact of transport measures in terms of network energy consumption and pollutant emissions. It is based on work done by the European Union within the save program (specific actions for vigorous energy efficiency)—Slam project (supporting local authorities methodology). As background, the Slam project is described, with the principal aspects and needs of environmental and traffic network management. The central section defines a methodology able to support technicians in recognizing the traffic asset and decision makers in evaluating interventions on urban transport infrastructures or technological systems. The role of the different models and their interactions with the transport telematics services currently active on the Florence (Italy) network is discussed. Finally, the procedure for calculating the traffic impacts on energy consumption is described with the help of a test case, the evaluation of a dedicated bus corridor in Florence.     

Integrated analysis of land-use and transport policy interventions

Analysing the impact of urban policy interventions on urban growth, land use and transport (LUT) is crucial for urban planners, transport planners and policy-makers, especially in rapidly growing cities. This paper presents a cellular automata-based land-use/transport interaction model – Metronamica-LUTI – for Jeddah that is used to analyse the impact of different proposed policy interventions under two urban growth scenarios for the period 2011–2031. Used as an integrated policy impact assessment tool, the model demonstrates a strong reciprocal relationship between LUT in Jeddah. This study shows that relevant spatial information and integrated policy impact assessment can provide rich insights into the interaction between LUT, the appropriate policy to consider in place and time which traditional planning practice and typical static urban models cannot do.     

基于LEAP模型的佛山市交通碳排放研究

随着城市化的发展,珠三角城市交通能源消耗和碳排放迅速增长。为了探讨珠三角城市低碳交通的发展方向,本文采用LEAP模型,以珠三角的佛山市为例,模拟了不同情景下交通总量、陆运和水运的能源消耗、能源结构和碳排放由2011至2030年的变化情况;并据此提出了珠三角城市低碳交通发展对策。结果表明:水运在交通运输中所占份额逐渐被陆运替代,将形成陆运为主、水运为辅的交通模式;在交通总量、陆运和水运等的交通能耗及碳排放方面,低碳情景均小于基准情景,且呈水运小于陆运的态势;而清洁能源使用比重的增加则有利于交通领域的低碳发展。珠三角城市低碳交通发展需关注陆运交通,提高清洁能源在陆运中的使用比重,优化陆运与水运的交通布局,提高运输及能源利用效率。     

Sustainability Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects: A Review of Existing Tools and Methods

Abstract

Attempts to integrate sustainability in the decision-making process for transport infrastructure projects continue to gain momentum. A number of tools and methodological frameworks are available — such as rating systems, traditional decision-making techniques, checklists, and different evaluation frameworks and models. While these tools are highly valuable, some practical issues remain unsolved. There is also a need for more standardized tools to appraise the sustainability of transport projects. This paper is a presentation of a review on the current assessment tools of sustainability applied to transport infrastructure projects. The preliminary part of the paper is an explanatory and comparative analysis of the tools and methods in terms of their effectiveness to appraise sustainability. The analysis is a critical evaluation of the current state of the art to identify the limitations of existing approaches, point out new areas of research, and propose a sustainability appraisal agenda for the future.     

An integrated assessment of alternative land-based passenger transport policies: A case study in Tenerife

Over recent decades, there have been numerous cases of land-based transport policies that have lacked clear and coherent strategies. This has not only hampered the resolution of issues like road congestion, but has also created new ones (e.g. strong social opposition to new train infrastructures). The absence of such strategies highlights the need for long-term transport policies with a wider vision of the issues, since land-based transport cannot be considered from just a technical perspective.The main objective of this article is to implement a participatory integrated approach to facilitate the understanding of land-based passenger transport governance issues on Tenerife, in the Canary Islands. Relevant policy issues and alternatives are identified by the stakeholders involved. The inclusion of stakeholders in the assessment process is crucial to frame transport governance issues appropriately and to define and assess plausible policy alternatives. This assessment process even included a final step of validation of the results by stakeholders to foster discussion among them about transport issues and policy alternatives.Finally, due to the obstructive role played by some stakeholders in influencing past transport policies, an analysis of possible coalitions among stakeholders is also discussed.     

Modelling the resilience of rail passenger transport networks affected by large-scale disruptive events: the case of HSR (high speed rail)

This paper deals with modelling the dynamic resilience of rail passenger transport networks affected by large-scale disruptive events whose impacts deteriorate the networks’ planned infrastructural, operational, economic, and social-economic performances represented by the selected indicators. The indicators of infrastructural performances refer to the physical and operational conditions of the networks’ lines and stations, and supportive facilities and equipment. Those of the operational performances include transport services scheduled along particular routes, their seating capacity, and corresponding transport work/capacity. The indicators of economic performances include the costs of cancelled and long-delayed transport services imposed on the main actors/stakeholder involved—the rail operator(s) and users/passengers. The indicators of social-economic performances reflect the compromised accessibility and consequent prevention of the user/passenger trips and their contribution to the local/regional/national Gross Domestic Product. Modeling resulted in developing a methodology including two sets of analytical models for: (1) assessing the dynamic resilience of a given rail network, i.e., before, during, and after the impacts of disruptive event(s); and (2) estimation of the indicators of particular performances as the figures-of-merit for assessing the network’s resilience under the given conditions. As such, the methodology could be used for estimating the resilience of different topologies of rail passenger networks affected by past, current, and future disruptive events, the latest according to the “what-if” scenario approach and after introducing the appropriate assumptions. The methodology has been applied to a past case—the Japanese Shinkansen HSR network affected by a large-scale disruptive event—the Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March 2011.     

Comparison of road freight transport trends in Europe. Coupling and decoupling factors from an Input–Output structural decomposition analysis

Decoupling road freight transport from economic growth has been acknowledged by the European Union as a key means to improving sustainability. It is therefore important to identify both the coupling and decoupling drivers of road freight transport demand in order to determine possible factors that may contribute to reduce road transport in the future without curbing economic development. This research proposes an Input–Output (IO) structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to explain road freight transport in terms of a set of key factors that have strongly influenced road freight demand in recent decades in European countries—such as economic growth, economic structure and the evolution of road transport intensity (including improvements in both supply and transport systems). This methodological approach allows us to quantify and compare their contribution in different European countries to either increase or decrease road freight transport demand. The empirical basis for this analysis is a dataset of nine European countries which have IO tables and road transport data available from 2000 to 2007, comprising data on domestic production, imports and exports as well as tonne-kms for 11 types of commodity classes. The results show that, as a whole, aggregate road transport demand has grown—driven mainly by economic activity—but this growth has been strongly curbed in some countries by changes in road freight transport intensity and moderately by the dematerialization of the economy. International transport has been also proven to be a key factor driving road freight transport volumes. Moreover, the increased penetration of foreign operators in national haulage markets appears to have reinforced the final decoupling levels observed in some cases.     

Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA

Climate change is a global problem and across the world the transport sector is finding it difficult to break projected increases in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions; there are very few contexts where deep reductions in transport CO₂ emissions are being made. A number of research studies are now examining the potential for future lower CO₂ emissions in the transport sector. This paper develops this work to consider some of the wider sustainability impacts (economic, social and local environmental) as well as the lower CO₂ transport impacts of different policy trajectories. Hence the central argument made is for an integrated approach to transport policy making over the longer term - incorporating scenario analysis and multi-criteria assessment (MCA) - to help assess likely progress against a range of objectives.The analysis is based on work carried out in Oxfordshire, UK. Different packages of measures are selected and two scenarios developed which satisfy lower CO₂ aspirations, one of which also provides wider positive sustainability impacts. A simulation model has been produced to help explore the strategic policy choices and tensions evident for decision-makers involved in local transport planning. The paper argues for a ‘strategic conversation’ (Van der Heijden, 1996) at the sub-regional and city level, based upon future scenario analysis and MCA, discussing the priorities for intervention. Such an approach will help us examine the scale of change and trade-offs required in moving towards sustainable transport futures.     

Well-being and Transport: Taking Stock and Looking Forward

ABSTRACT

It is only recently that researchers have attempted to directly link transport to models of well-being and in turn try to map transport's linkages to well-being outcomes. This paper seeks to add to this new literature by introducing a dynamic model of well-being, which highlights the different domains that make up well-being, and in turn — through providing one of the most holistic and comprehensive discussions of the current well-being literature — provide an evaluation of our current understanding of transport's relationship to well-being. The paper also seeks to highlight the different dimensions and complexities of seeking to monitor and improve well-being through transport policy. It will in turn be argued that the varied and complex sets of outcomes that arise from transport policy interventions, and the multiple ways in which they affect well-being, make a well-being approach (that measures policy outcomes in terms of units of well-being) of particular value for policy-makers. However, due to the complexities in comparing positive well-being outcomes, it is argued that the best use of well-being evidence for the transport sector may be to try to minimise the negative effects on well-being caused by policy outcomes.     

Should I stay or should I go? Investigating route switching behavior from revealed preferences data

A large variety of factors influence the route choice decisions of road users, and modelers consider these factors within the perceived utility that road users are assumed to maximize. However, this perceived utility may be different even for the same origin–destination pair and this leads road users to choose different routes for different trips. In this study, we focus on this particular phenomenon of route switching behavior by estimating discrete choice models with the aim of understanding the key factors at its foundation. The estimated route choice models account for route characteristics, socio-economic information, activity based data, inertial mechanism and learning effects, and they are applied to revealed preference data consisting of 677 actual day by day route choices (referred to 77 road users) collected by GPS in Cagliari (Italy). Route switching models were estimated with both fixed and random coefficient models. The model estimation results show that the variables referred to habit and learning have an important relevance on explaining the route switching phenomenon. Specifically, the higher is the travel habit, the less is the propensity of the road users to switch their route. Moreover, the learning effect shows that the accumulation of past experiences has more influence on the choice than the most recent ones.

     

Improvement actions for reducing transport’s impact on climate: A shipper’s perspective

The purpose of this paper is to compare improvement actions for reducing transport’s impact on climate from the shipper’s perspective. To that end, it introduces an evaluation tool for comparing improvement actions in transport systems in terms of transport costs, impact on climate, and barriers to implementation. Within the context of five international flows involving a food producer, three actions—namely, engaging intermodal transport, increasing load factors by double-stacking pallets, and using high-capacity vehicles—were evaluated. Shipment data were collected to calculate reductions in transport costs and impact on climate, whereas interviews with the food producer were conducted to identify barriers. Results showed that reductions in transport costs and impact on climate attributed to the improvement actions differed among the five flows. Engaging intermodal transport reduced the system’s impact on climate by 27–53%, double-stacking pallets by 0–23%, and using high-capacity vehicles by 7–15%, with differences primarily due to different freight densities. Concerning barriers to implementation, the improvement actions also varied by flow. Altogether, unlike other papers, which have examined improvement actions separately, this paper offers an evaluation tool for comparing several improvement actions at once, as applied to a particular empirical case. Shippers with multiple flows and several possible improvement actions can use the evaluation tool to efficiently reduce their systems’ impact on climate.     

Generation of logistics networks in freight transportation models

This article analyzes the concept of logistics networks in the context of behavioral freight transport modeling. Starting from the basic definition of networks, the different perceptions of networks in transportation science and logistics are worked out. The micro?Cmacro gap, as a main challenge in freight transport modeling, is explained by the existence of logistics networks on a meso level. A taxonomy of modeling methods dealing with logistics networks is defined, based on two characteristics: the changeability of networks within models (fixed, partially variable and variable networks) and the form of cost functions mapped (economies of scale, constant average cost, and diseconomies of scale). For each category, different possible modeling methods and their application in existing freight transport models are discussed. A special focus is placed on methodologies and models that map variable networks.     

Is rail cleaner and greener than bus?

The popular consensus is that urban passenger rail is more environmentally friendly than urban passenger bus. This position is largely associated with the key energy source for each mode, respectively electricity and diesel, where electric vehicle use will typically result in local air quality improvements away from the electricity generation source. Surveys of community perceptions reflect this sentiment; however the relationship between the source of energy and its resultant emissions is not something that citizens fully understand. There is a general lack of awareness of the resource base of much of electricity generation in some countries. Where generation sources are suitably renewable or low-carbon, electricity use will offer greenhouse gas abatement potential. However, in countries which still rely heavily on coal-fired power stations, such as Australia, abatement is not as assured and estimating emission outcomes can require careful assessment. Supporters of alternatives to diesel use can focus on the future supply of fossil-fuels, an argument which has merit; however such arguments are often confounded with environmental qualities related to local air pollution and enhanced greenhouse gas emissions. This paper takes a close look at the greenhouse emissions that are associated with urban rail and bus in Australia. Estimated intensities, when presented in the context of effective service delivery (primarily in terms of emissions per passenger kilometre), raise questions about the distortions that are present in the widespread promotion in Australia (at least) of rail as a more environmentally friendly and hence a sustainable mode of urban passenger transport than bus.     

A survey of the Swiss public transport system and policy

This paper surveys Swiss public transport structure and policy. The regulatory regime is explained with the division between the two operators working under federal monopoly — the State railways (SBB) and the postbuses (PTT) — and the rest of the system. The rather complicated Swiss subsidy arrangements are described. The federal government's emphasis on introducing cheap public transport fares on environmental grounds through the federal transport measures (BTM) and the use of cheap fares in urban areas are discussed. The paper notes the Swiss people's rejection by a referendum of a federal commission's proposal for an integrated transport policy, though some of the solutions were introduced in their own right: the division of SBB into two parts, and the creation of the concept Rail 2000, later developed into Rail + Bus 2000. Finally, the paper reviews problems of the Swiss policy, including the future of cheap fares, making some comparisons with developments in Scandinavia.     

Towards integrated traveller information

Traveller information provision has become a key government priority in the UK following the publication of its Transport White Paper in July 1998. Developments are already underway for the integration of information systems across different public transport modes and between public transport information systems covering different regions. The Highways Agency (which is responsible for managing the strategic road network in the UK) is also advancing in its development of information databases and systems for the motorist. This paper considers the prospect of providing travellers with multimodal information with integration of driver information with public transport information. If such integration can be achieved then travellers, and in particular drivers, have the prospect of being presented with comparable information on travel options across modes. An integrated information service has a great potential to inform and influence travel choices. The paper considers the issue of travel choices and the role that information can play particularly in the context of mode choice. The political (UK) and technological climate for information provision is outlined. The paper identifies issues that will need to be addressed to identify the requirements from, and potential benefits of, integrated information, and the obstacles and challenges likely to be faced in moving towards it. Driver reactions, in particular, to the prospect of integrated information provision are fundamental to the assessment of its potential importance and value.