Modal-split effects of climate change: The effect of low water levels on the competitive position of inland waterway transport in the river Rhine area

Future climate change is expected to affect inland waterway transport in most main natural waterways in Europe. For the river Rhine it is expected that, in summer, more and longer periods with low water levels will occur. In periods of low water levels inland waterway vessels have to reduce their load factors and, as a result, transport prices per tonne will increase. One possible consequence of these higher transport prices is a deterioration of the competitive position of inland waterway transport compared with rail and road transport, and thus a change in modal split. We study this issue using a GIS-based software model called NODUS which provides a tool for the detailed analysis of freight transportation over extensive multimodal networks. We assess the effect of low water levels on the costs of transport operations for inland waterway transport in North West Europe under several climate scenarios. It turns out, that the effect on the modal split is limited. Under the most extreme climate scenario, inland waterway transport would lose about 5.4% of the quantity that is currently being transported annually in the part of the European inland waterway transport market considered. The very dry year of 2003 can be seen as an analogue for this scenario.     

Forecasting the impacts of climate change on inland waterways

Inland waterways are vulnerable to climate change as river navigation depends on water levels. Droughts can severely disrupt inland navigation services by reducing water levels either to completely non-navigable ones or to levels that oblige operators to reduce vessel load. We analyse the impacts of droughts induced by climate change using projections of river discharge data provided by eleven different climate model runs. We consider location specific characteristics by focusing the analysis on four specific locations of the Rhine and the Danube where a substantial part of the total freight activity in the European Union (EU) takes place. For the majority of the cases and scenarios considered, a decrease of the number of low water level days is projected, leading to fewer drought related disruptions in the operation of the inland waterway transport system. Although the uncertainties from the climate projections should not be neglected, the navigation sector could benefit from global warming which means that European inland waterways might be one of the few sectors where climate change can have negligible, or even positive, impact. The average economic benefit, for the cases considered, from the decrease of low water levels by the end of the century is projected to be almost €8million annually.     

Modeling the cost sensitivity of intermodal inland waterway terminals: A scenario based approach

Cost characteristics of differently sized inland waterway terminals (IWTs) have not received much scientific attention. This observation is remarkable given the importance of costs in transportation decision-making. Classification of differently sized IWTs and their cost structure will lead to more insight into the container cost per terminal. Therefore, the goal of our research was to determine both the characteristics of the cost structure associated with different inland waterway (IWW) container terminal types and the sensitivity of the system to cost/TEU changes in input and operational conditions. We show that terminals with a higher container throughput encounter fewer costs, and can therefore charge a lower price. Assumed delays of 2 h per day on the waterside cause a 4.7–6.6% cost increase per container, mainly caused by extra labor costs. It is also assumed that the changing climate will influence terminal operations and results in extreme water levels (lasting two weeks occurring four times a year) causing a cost increase of 1.0–3.4%. Subsidies can cause cost reductions of 0.3–10.4% depending on the exact form, with the smaller terminals benefiting more because their investment costs are higher relative to operational costs. A subsidy can lower costs by up to 10.4%, but it is questionable whether small and medium terminals will have a lower cost price than the market price, showing that it is important for small and medium terminals to quickly grow in size.     

Inland waterway transport in the federal Republic of Germany: Situation and problems

Inland waterway transport in the Federal Republic of Germany, interconnecting 54 out of the 80 big cities, is mainly structured into small-scale enterprises. Organisation of transport, however, is mainly accommodated by a few large shipping firms. The increasing interest in inland waterway transport is due to increasing infrastructural bottlenecks in rail and road transport caused by integration, whereas waterways still have high capacity reserves. Furthermore, they are environmentally beneficial. Future problems, on the one hand, will arise from fundamental market and relating changes inland waterway transport has to adapt to within the scope of transport chain optimisation. On the other hand, the abolishment of fare regulation and the commercialisation of the railway companies will change the internal and external competitive conditions. An additional problem arises from future competition of inland vessels from Eastern European countries.     

Climate change impacts on transport on the Rhine and Danube: A multimodal approach

This paper measures the potential effects of low water levels on the Rhine and Danube navigation in the context of weather variability and a number of climate change scenarios. A long-term multimodal network transport analysis over the period 2005–2050 is presented; it analyzes the impact of changes on the water depth conditions on transport costs and the modal splits between three competing modes. The results indicate that the impact of climate change until 2050 should be limited.     

Through the storm: Transit agency management in response to climate change

The increase in extreme weather events due to climate change poses serious challenges to public transit systems. These events disrupt transit operations, impair service quality, increase threats to public safety, and damage infrastructure. Despite the growing risk of extreme weather and climate change, little is known about how public managers recognize, experience and address these risks. Using data from a national study of public transit agencies we investigate the types of extreme weather events transit agencies are experiencing, the associated risks, and how agencies are preparing for them. We find that while extreme events are commonly experienced by transit agencies across states and transit managers perceive increased risks from these events, most agencies rely on the traditional emergency management approach to address extreme weather ex post rather than taking a proactive approach to mitigating the adverse weather impact on transit assets and infrastructure ex ante. Managers report that a lack of access to financial resources is the greatest challenge for undertaking adaptation and preparation. We conclude with a discussion of what these findings mean for understanding organizational adaptation behavior as well as climate adaptation policy making.     

Weather,transport mode choices and emotional travel experiences

With climate change high on the political agenda, weather has emerged as an important issue in travel behavioural research and urban planning. While various studies demonstrate profound effects of weather on travel behaviours, limited attention has been paid to subjective weather experiences and the psychological mechanisms that may (partially) underlie these effects. This paper integrates theoretical insights on outdoor thermal comfort, weather perceptions and emotional experiences in the context of travel behaviour. Drawing on unique panel travel diary data for 945 Greater Rotterdam respondents (The Netherlands), this paper aims to investigate how and to what extent weather conditions affect transport mode choices, outdoor thermal perceptions and emotional travel experiences. Our findings point out that observed dry, calm, sunny and warm but not too hot weather conditions stimulate cycling over other transport modes and – via mechanisms of thermal and mechanical comfort – lead to more pleasant emotions during travel. Overall, public transport users have less pleasant emotional experiences than users of other transport modes, while active mode users appear most weather sensitive. The theoretical contributions and empirical findings are discussed in the context of climate change and climate-sensitive urban planning.     

Estimating changes in transport CO2 emissions due to changes in weather and climate in Sweden

There is a considerable body of studies on the relationship between daily transport activities and CO₂ emissions. However, how these emissions vary in different weather conditions within and between the seasons of the year is largely unknown. Because individual activity–travel patterns are not static but vary in different weather conditions, it is immensely important to understand how CO₂ emissions vary due to the change of weather. Using Swedish National Travel Survey data, with emission factors calculated through the European emission factor model ARTEMIS, this study is a first attempt to derive the amount of CO₂ emission changes subject to the change of weather conditions. A series of econometric models was used to model travel behaviour variables that are crucial for influencing individual CO₂ emissions. The marginal effects of weather variables on travel behaviour variables were derived. The results show an increase of individual CO₂ emissions in a warmer climate and in more extreme temperature conditions, whereas increasing precipitation amounts and snow depths show limited effects on individual CO₂ emissions. It is worth noting that the change in CO₂ emissions in the scenario of a warmer climate and a more extreme temperature tends to be greater than the sum of changes in CO₂ emissions in each individual scenario. Given that a warmer climate and more extreme weather could co-occur more frequently in the future, this result suggests even greater individual CO₂ emissions than expected in such a future climate.     

Characteristics of European inland ports: A statistical analysis of inland waterway port development in Dutch municipalities

Most scientific attention in port studies centers on deep-sea ports, in particular container ports. In our paper, in contrast, we focus our attention on the characteristics of inland waterway ports in a European context. This is an overlooked part in the scientific literature on inland port development, which is up to now mainly concerned with US-based understandings of inland ports. We try to broaden the application of the inland port concept by explaining the development of inland ports in terms of inland waterway bounded cargo throughput. Based on a large-scale quantitative dataset of inland port development in Dutch municipalities we perform various statistical analyses to arrive at a more detailed understanding of the question: What are the characteristics of European inland waterway ports and what transport and economic factors influence cargo throughput on the municipal level? The results in particular highlight the importance of the presence of a container terminal, the diversity in types of goods which are being handled by the inland port and the accessibility of the inland port relative to the regional motorway network as important factors in explaining the size and growth of inland ports. Interestingly, the popular claim in policy of ‘investments in inland port development leading to employment growth’ cannot be confirmed.     

Power unit ‐ Cargo space link in inland waterway navigation

This paper deals with transportation technology regarding links between power unit or motor ship and ship cargo space. These links can be divided into two groups: rigid and flexible. Rigid link, established between power unit and cargo space, is dominant in maritime and road transport (sea ships and trucks), and occasionally in transport on inland waterways (self‐propelled barges). Flexible link is used in railroad transport (between the locomotive and railroad units), partially in road transport (systems with trailers and semitrailers), and in inland waterway transport (push‐towing, pulling systems and combinations of these systems). The main goal of this research is determination of possible link types and organization of fleet for transport on inland waterways in case of flexible link.     

加大技术创新力度,提高航标维护管理质量

文章针对广西内河助航标现状,提出加大技术创新,对航标进行技改的思路。并对应用现有技术建设广西内河航标自动遥测系统进行探讨,为提高航标维护管理质量提供参考。     

Distance and time in intermodal goods transport networks in Europe: A generic approach

This paper is about distance and time as factors of competitiveness of intermodal transport. It reviews the relevance of the factors, evaluates time models in practice, compares network distances and times in alternative bundling networks with geometrically varied layouts, and points out how these networks perform in terms of vehicle scale, frequency and door-to-door time. The analysis focuses on intermodal transport in Europe, especially intermodal rail transport, but is in search for generic conclusions. The paper does not incorporate the distance and time results in cost models, and draws conclusions for transport innovation, wherever this is possible without cost modelling. For instance, the feature vehicle scale, an important factor of transport costs, is analysed and discussed.Distance and time are important factors of competitiveness of intermodal transport. They generate (direct) vehicle costs and – via transport quality – indirect costs to the customers. Clearly direct costs/prices are the most important performance of the intermodal transport system. The relevance of quality performances is less clarified. Customers emphasise the importance of a good match between the transport and the logistic system. In this framework (time) reliability is valued high. Often transport time, arrival and departure times, and frequency have a lower priority. But such conclusions can hardy be generalised. The range of valuations reflects the heterogeneity of situations. Some lack of clarity is obviously due to overlapping definitions of different performance types.The following parts of the paper are about two central fields of network design, which have a large impact on transport costs and quality, namely the design of vehicle roundtrips (and acceleration of transport speed) and the choice of bundling type: do vehicles provide direct services or run in what we call complex bundling networks? An example is the hub-and-spoke network. The objective of complex bundling is to increase vehicle scale and/or transport frequency even if network volumes are restricted. Complex bundling requires intermediate nodes for the exchange of load units. Examples of complex bundling networks are the hub-and-spoke network or the line network.Roundtrip and bundling design are interrelated policy fields: an acceleration of the roundtrip speed, often desirable from the cost point of view, can often only be carried out customer friendly, if the transport frequency is increased. But often the flow size is not sufficient for a higher frequency. Then a change of bundling model can be an outcome.Complex bundling networks are known to have longer average distances and times, the latter also due to the presence of additional intermediate exchange nodes. However, this disadvantage is – inside the limits of maximal vehicle sizes – overruled by the advantage of a restricted number of network links. Therefore generally, complex bundling networks have shorter total vehicle distances and times. This expression of economies of scale implies lower vehicle costs per load unit.The last part of the paper presents door-to-door times of load units of complex bundling networks and compares them with unimodal road transport. The times of complex bundling networks are larger than that of networks with direct connections, but nevertheless competitive with unimodal road transport, except for short distances.     

CO2 emissions and expansion of railway,road, airline and in-land waterway networks over the 1985–2013 period in China: A time series analysis

China, the world’s largest CO₂ emitter, is continuing its long-term strategy to use transportation investments as a tool for development. With the expectation that transportation will contribute 30–40% of the total CO₂ emissions in China in the near future, there is an imminent need to identify how the development of different transportation modes may have different long-term effects on CO₂ emissions. Using time series data over the period of 1985–2013, this paper applies the combined autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector error correction model (VECM) approach to identify short- and long-run causal relationships between CO₂ emissions and mode-specific transportation development, including railway, road, airline, and inland waterway. We find that China’s domestic expansions of road, airline, and waterway infrastructure lead to long-run increases in CO₂ emissions. Among them, waterway has the strongest positive impact on CO₂ emissions, followed by road. Despite a short-run, positive impact on CO₂ emissions, railway expansion leads to long-run decreases in CO₂ emissions. The results are especially encouraging for the central government of China given its long-standing and on-going efforts to expand railway infrastructure at the national level. Looking forward, it is recommended that China continues its national investments in railway infrastructure to achieve both environment and economy goals.     

内河电子航道图制作质量控制

文章介绍了内河电子航道图的定义及主要特点,并以柳江电子航道图制作为例,重点阐述了内河电子航道图的质量控制措施及电子航道图的发展前景。     

Investigating the impacts of weather variability on individual’s daily activity–travel patterns: A comparison between commuters and non-commuters in Sweden

Understanding travel behaviour change under various weather conditions can help analysts and policy makers incorporate the uniqueness of local weather and climate within their policy design, especially given the fact that future climate and weather will become more unpredictable and adverse. Using datasets from the Swedish National Travel Survey and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute that spans a period of thirteen years, this study explores the impacts of weather variability on individual activity–travel patterns. In doing so, this study uses an alternative representation of weather from that of directly applying observed weather parameters. Furthermore, this study employs a holistic model structure. The model structure is able to analyse the simultaneous effects of weather on a wide range of interrelated travel behavioural aspects, which has not been investigated in previous weather studies. Structural equation models (SEM) are applied for this purpose. The models for commuters and non-commuters are constructed separately. The analysis results show that the effects of weather can be even more extreme when considering indirect effects from other travel behaviour indicators involved in the decision-making processes. Commuters are shown to be much less sensitive to weather changes than non-commuters. Variation of monthly average temperature is shown to play a more important role in influencing individual travel behaviour than variation of daily temperature relative to its monthly mean, whilst in the short term, individual activity–travel choices are shown to be more sensitive to the daily variation of the relative humidity and wind speed relative to the month mean. Poor visibility and heavy rain are shown to strongly discourage the intention to travel, leading to a reduction in non-work activity duration, travel time and the number of trips on the given day. These findings depict a more comprehensive picture of weather impact compared to previous studies and highlight the importance of considering interdependencies of activity travel indicators when evaluating weather impacts.     

Automated shunting of rail container wagons in ports and terminal areas

The development of intermodal container transport is hampered in part by the cost associated with the shunting of trains in marshalling yards, inland and port railway terminals. Many new technologies have been developed in the past decade, but have still not been applied because of high capital investment costs, lack of sufficient market demand and uncertain rates of return. The key for increasing the competitiveness of intermodal container transport by rail is the operation of heavy haul container trains between port and inland railway terminals more frequently with fast, flexible and automatic transhipment, shunting and coupling of container wagons. The operation of self-driven railcars equipped with automatic centre coupling on terminal tracks, which can also be train-hauled on conventional hinterland railway lines, would enable a reduction of shunting and transhipment time and costs in intermodal container terminals by more than 30%.     

External costs of electric vehicles

Electric vehicles (EV) are often considered a promising technology to decrease external costs of road transport. Therefore, main external cost components are estimated for EV and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV). These include costs of accidents, air pollution, climate change, noise, and congestion. All components are estimated over the product lifetime and, where appropriate, differentiated according to fuel type, vehicle size as well as emission location and time. The advantage of this differentiation is, however, compensated by high uncertainties of most cost estimates. Overall, the external costs of EV and ICEV do not differ significantly. Only for climate change, local air pollutants in congested inner-cities, and noise some advantageous effects can be observed for EV. The advantages depend strongly on the national electricity power plant portfolio and potentially also on the charging strategy. Controlled charging might allow for higher emission reductions than uncontrolled charging of EV.     

Improvement actions for reducing transport’s impact on climate: A shipper’s perspective

The purpose of this paper is to compare improvement actions for reducing transport’s impact on climate from the shipper’s perspective. To that end, it introduces an evaluation tool for comparing improvement actions in transport systems in terms of transport costs, impact on climate, and barriers to implementation. Within the context of five international flows involving a food producer, three actions—namely, engaging intermodal transport, increasing load factors by double-stacking pallets, and using high-capacity vehicles—were evaluated. Shipment data were collected to calculate reductions in transport costs and impact on climate, whereas interviews with the food producer were conducted to identify barriers. Results showed that reductions in transport costs and impact on climate attributed to the improvement actions differed among the five flows. Engaging intermodal transport reduced the system’s impact on climate by 27–53%, double-stacking pallets by 0–23%, and using high-capacity vehicles by 7–15%, with differences primarily due to different freight densities. Concerning barriers to implementation, the improvement actions also varied by flow. Altogether, unlike other papers, which have examined improvement actions separately, this paper offers an evaluation tool for comparing several improvement actions at once, as applied to a particular empirical case. Shippers with multiple flows and several possible improvement actions can use the evaluation tool to efficiently reduce their systems’ impact on climate.     

An assessment of pollutant emissions due to air traffic at Nikola Tesla International Airport,Belgrade, and the link between local air quality and weather types

The assessment of local air pollution due to air traffic is an important issue from the standpoint of human health. An advanced approach using a landing and take-off cycle method is employed to assess emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbon (HC), and sulphur oxides (SO_x). Emissions of both volatile and non-volatile particulate matter are estimated using the new First-Order Approximation methodology. As synoptic situations (weather) determine the transport of pollutants in the air as well as their scavenging, the weather type for each day is classified for the study period (2008–2015).Due to a significant increase in air traffic at Nikola Tesla International Airport, Belgrade, in the last eight years, emissions of all considered pollutants have also increased. Emissions of NO_x and CO were the highest (totals for eight years were 2976.03 and 2875.66 tons, respectively). An analysis of weather types showed that the most frequent were warm, dry, anticyclones (AWD) and cyclones (low-pressure systems) including the passage of a cold front (CCF). The frequency of occurrence of AWDs and CCFs was 28.3% and 21.6%, respectively. An AWD is very unfavourable from the viewpoint of local air pollution, especially during the cold part of year, due to a shallow temperature inversion and fog formation in the morning confining the pollutants to the emission location for a longer time span. CCFs are also adverse due to the prevailing westerly and north-westerly winds that transport pollutants toward the city.     

Impact assessment of extreme weather events on transport networks: A data-driven approach

The present paper presents a data-driven method for assessing the resilience of the European passenger transport network during extreme weather events. The method aims to fill in the gap of current research efforts regarding the quantification of impacts attributed to climate change and the identification of substitutability opportunities between transport modes in case of extreme weather events (EWE). The proposed method consists of three steps concerning the probability estimation of an EWE occurring within a transportation network, the assessment of its impacts and the passengers’ flow shift between various transport modes. A mathematical formulation for the proposed data-driven method is provided and applied in an indicative European small-scale network, in order to assess the impacts of EWE on modal choice. Results are expressed in passenger differentiated flows and the paper concludes with future research steps and directions.