Evaluation of political risk in a shipping project

Shipping projects, as land-based ones, are evaluated by using different measures of merit based on discounted cash flows. The bulk carrying industry, where costs are known better than revenues, adopted the required freight rate (RFR) and its derivative the economic cost of transport (ECT) as its major measures of merit. Shipping is a business exposed to many unforeseen risks. Although many of these risks are beyond the control of the shipowners/operators, they should all be carefully weighed during the process of project selection designed for investment decisions. One such risk is the expropriation of shore-based facilities built by the shipping operator at one or more termini of the maritime distribution channel. The operator has to assess the value and probability of risk and translate them into a premium which he will levy on each unit of goods transported. Adding this premium to the required freight rate together with the inventory holding costs and marine insurance charges will produce the real economic cost of transport.     

港口危机困扰全球航运

2007年，世界经济高速增长，困扰航运业的港口危机不仅仍在持续，且愈演愈烈。在世界贸易不断加速增长的趋势下，港口与航运之间的矛盾甚至不再仅仅局限于某一地区，而是具有了全球化特征。同时，由于欧洲、美国西海岸、亚洲及其它地区部分港口综合系统的限制，港口服务已成为攸关航运业发展的重要因素。[编者按]     

港航企业聚焦物流

发展现代物流业，贯彻科学发展观，有利于流通及运输领域的产业结构调整和技术升级，提高运输效率，缓解交通压力，实现可持续发展。近年来．港口和航运企业对现代物流的认识，不断普及和深化，走出了一条务实之路。在取得一定成绩的同时也存在一些问题。     

国际航运中心建设中的港口物流信息平台——洋山综合信息服务平台的实践应用

现代物流是建立在电子信息平台基础上的产业,港口是连接国内外市场的最为重要的物流节点。在建设国际航运中心的过程中,面对周边港口的激烈竞争,必须加快港口物流信息平台的建设和应用,不断提高现代港口的服务能力和综合竞争力。     

Evaluation of risk attitude in the shipping freight market under uncertainty

ABSTRACT

The main purpose of this study is to examine how market participants take risks, in other words, what their risk attitude/preference is, and how their risk attitude could be related to the shipping freight and other markets. To address them, we calibrated the risk attitude of participants in shipping freight markets from 2007 to 2013, and provided an example of the application of risk attitude. For market participants, risk attitude/preference has an important role in understanding shipping freight markets and managing risks under uncertainty. However, risk attitude is not directly observable. To achieve this, we applied a framework that consists of structural model and calibration with market data. We interpreted risk attitude and confirmed that a structural break occurred around 2008 for the calibrated risk attitude parameter. The average risk attitude of market participants tended to be more risk-averse after 2010. We conducted an additional analysis to provide an example of the application of calibrated risk attitude, using structural equation modeling to calculate a latent variable that reflected other commodity markets. We compared the risk attitude parameter and the latent variable, and clarified the relationship between the risk attitude parameter and commodity markets.     

广州港集装箱运输竞争策略

介绍广州港集团发展集装箱运输业务的现状,提出广州港在发展集装箱运输中机遇与挑战并存的观点,运用SWOT分析模型进一步总结归纳其发展的有利因素与不利因素,并在此基础上提出广州港今后发展集装箱运输业务的竞争策略和建议方案。     

洋山港爆破工程与地基处理项目安全风险评价模型

进行爆破工程和地基处理的施工中,人、物和环境等因素均可能在施工过程中诱发安全事故。在洋山港工程实践中,为了从根本上减少安全事故的发生,减少事故造成的损失,从整个系统综合管理的角度考虑,建立一套能对安全事故诱因进行监测、诊断的安全风险评价模型,从而为政府和企业采取相应的预防控制措施规避爆破工程和地基处理中的风险提供技术支持。     

基于TOPSIS法的航运企业竞争力评价研究

随着经济全球化步伐的加快,航运市场不断夸张,竞争也日趋激烈,航运企业只有正确评价并发展其竞争力,才能持续的发展。本文运用TOPSIS的决策方法对航运企业竞争力的量化指标进行综合评价,具有重要意义。     

在新起点上绘就"水上海南"

岁末年初,一件件接踵而来的大事、喜事让海南港航建设者为之振奋. 第一艘以"海南皇后"命名的豪华邮轮试航环海南岛航线,开启了海南发展海洋旅游的破冰之旅;两艘航道维护疏浚船在琼州海峡航道开工作业,结束了海南本土多年以来没有沿海航道维护疏浚船舶的历史,国家发改委、铁道部、交通部、广东省、海南省共商加快推进琼州海峡跨海通道建设,海南人民千百年来的梦想指日可待,琼粤两省签署战略合作框架协议,携手打造泛珠三角区域合作典范……     

National-flag shipping: An appraisal of policy options from a Canadian perspective

In this paper the author reviews recent developments in Canadian government policy with regard to national-flag shipping. In response to criticism from various marine interest groups that successive governments have done little to encourage the development of national-flag shipping, federal administrations have taken a more active part in the debate. This has been manifest in several reports produced under the auspices of Transport Canada, which discuss the desirability of using selective tax or fiscal incentives to promote investment in Canadian shipping. The author outlines the arguments for expanding national-flag shipping, relating these to the greater question of what effect these proposed financial measures might have on the use of capital and other resources. He concludes that selective preferential taxation may be justified by the repatriation of shipping activities now offshore and avoidance of further shifts of manpower and capital offshore.     

跨国航运企业财务风险管理

借鉴国内外财务风险管理理论与实践中一些比较成熟的方法,结合我国航运企业财务风险管理的实际情况,对我国跨国航运企业财务风险管理中的资金筹集风险、资金管理风险等相关问题进行研究,并对跨国航运企业财务风险管理的内部环境建设提出建议。     

科伦坡港口城一期工程设计方案优化

针对科伦坡港口城一期工程量大、施工工序多、工期要求紧的实际情况,在满足功能需求的前提下,利用数值模拟、物理模型、相关工程案例支撑等方法进行平面及结构的设计优化,并分析优化的风险及应对措施,从源头上缩短工期及节约工程造价。优化成果已获得批准并应用于工程实施,为港口城项目顺利实施提供技术支撑。     

Norwegian shipping: measuring foreign exchange risk

The primary aim here is an attempt to measure the impact of foreign exchange movements on the operating results of the shipping industry. The issue arises from the imposition of a volatile foreign exchange market on a freight market structure which fixes revenues in US dollars. Despite attempts to shift costs into dollars, some other currency liabilities still remain, making exposure to exchange rate fluctuations inevitable. The contemporary experience of the Norwegian industry is used to analyse the cost structure in terms of currency denomination, the volatility in the real Kroner/US dollar exchange rate, and the sensitivity of the operating results to these fluctuations. This serves to highlight the commercial vulnerability of shipping companies. Exposure can be seen in a positive or negative light depending on the direction of movement in the exchange rate. Operating profits can rise and fall dramatically simply because of these exchange rate movements.     

Application of probability theory to marne project appraisal

The importance of specifying and quantifying the project risks in the investment decision process cannot be overemphasized. Even more so in the context of marine project appraisal, since the shiping markets are characterized by extreme volatility and high cyclicality. The use of probability theory in investment decisions is reviewed and applications are derived for marine projects. The paper focuses on the use of Monte Carlo simulation to determine the mean and variance of the input variables. Within the Monte Carlo framework three alternative methods are used for the construction of probability distributions; the scaled halves of a normal distribution, two unscaled parts of a normal distribution and finally use of altenative distributions, such as beta, gamma and chi-square. An alternative methodology is also drawn from the literature, namely the Pearson-Turkey three point approximation, to contrast with the Monte Carlo method.     

The utility analysis of risk attitudes in shipping

Many methodologies have been developed in order to optimize business decision making. By definition, optimization is only possible when an objective, or set of objectives, has been specified. However, the presence of risk obscures the potential payoffs of a particular decision. How different decision makers react to this phenomenon is reflected in the different objectives which they adopt. One corollary of this diversity of objectives is that any generally applicable optimization method must explicitly take into account the influence of risk attitude on decision choice. Because of the magnitude of the risks involved, virtually nowhere is this requirement more relevant than in relation to shipping decisions. This paper presents and justifies a method for assessing and measuring attitudes towards market risk. The method is applied to a sample of shipowners in Britain, Norway, Hong Kong and Greece and the risk profiles that are developed have some surprising, and important, implications for decision making in shipping.     

美国航运系统全景透视

美国航运系统全称为MarineTrans-portationSystem,简称MTS。是为服务于水上客货运输和军事运输,由航道、港口和相关设施组成的一个网络,是美国运输系统的一个重要组成部分。它是美国水路与陆路运输的联接和世界联系的桥梁。涵盖水路运输、水陆联运等与水路相关的客货运输方式,涉及到航道、港口和水陆联运码头等航运设施。覆盖了美国的25000英里航道;192个地点的238个闸门;五大湖;圣罗伦斯海道;超过3700个的航运设施;无数的娱乐码头;超过174000英里的连接大陆48个州以及加拿大和墨西哥的铁路;超过45000英里的高速公路,以及超过115000英里…     

Financing of Soviet shipping companies under perestroika

This paper highlights sources of finance for Soviet shipping companies. These include the fund for the development of production, science and technology, the shipping company's foreign currency fund, loans and centralized sources. Particular attention is paid to the structure of these funds and their purposes. Activities of the commercial shipping bank (Morbank) set up in 1989 are described.     

FFA在航运市场风险管理中的应用

随着国际干散货贸易的繁荣和运价波动性的加大,在过去几年里FFA市场也得到较大发展。分析国际干散货航运市场的不确定性,介绍远期运费协议(FFA)的含义及其在国际干散货航运市场中的发展情况,探讨FFA风险管理的作用,最后,面对航运市场较大的波动性,提出中国船东和租家必须学会利用FFA这一新的工具进行风险管理的建议。     

湛江港航道会船区设置方案研究

随着航运的快速发展,大型船舶通过进出港航道占用航道时间越来越长,在进港航道设置会船区是十分必要的。现行规范中对于会船区的有关规定及计算尚不明确。针对湛江港航道里程长、规模大、通航环境复杂的客观实际,在对现状船型尺度调研的基础上,分析了拟建会船区的水深、波浪、流速条件。提出了30万、15万t不同船舶组合通航方案,并计算了统一断面与复式断面两种形式下的航道通航宽度,确定会船区长度、宽度、转弯半径、设计底高程等参数,选取了水深良好、位置恰当的会船区平面布置方案。