Short-term planning and policy interventions to promote cycling in urban centers: Findings from a commute mode choice analysis in Barcelona,Spain

BackgroundCycling for transportation has become an increasingly important component of strategies to address public health, climate change, and air quality concerns in urban centers. Within this context, planners and policy makers would benefit from an improved understanding of available interventions and their relative effectiveness for cycling promotion. We examined predictors of bicycle commuting that are relevant to planning and policy intervention, particularly those amenable to short- and medium-term action.MethodsWe estimated a travel mode choice model using data from a survey of 765 commuters who live and work within the municipality of Barcelona. We considered how the decision to commute by bicycle was associated with cycling infrastructure, bike share availability, travel demand incentives, and other environmental attributes (e.g., public transport availability). Self-reported and objective (GIS-based) measures were compared. Point elasticities and marginal effects were calculated to assess the relative explanatory power of the independent variables considered.ResultsWhile both self-reported and objective measures of access to cycling infrastructure were associated with bicycle commuting, self-reported measures had stronger associations. Bicycle commuting had positive associations with access to bike share stations but inverse associations with access to public transport stops. Point elasticities suggested that bicycle commuting has a mild negative correlation with public transport availability (−0.136), bike share availability is more important at the work location (0.077) than at home (0.034), and bicycle lane presence has a relatively small association with bicycle commuting (0.039). Marginal effects suggested that provision of an employer-based incentive not to commute by private vehicle would be associated with an 11.3% decrease in the probability of commuting by bicycle, likely reflecting the typical emphasis of such incentives on public transport.ConclusionsThe results provide evidence of modal competition between cycling and public transport, through the presence of public transport stops and the provision of public transport-oriented travel demand incentives. Education and awareness campaigns that influence perceptions of cycling infrastructure availability, travel demand incentives that encourage cycling, and policies that integrate public transport and cycling may be promising and cost-effective strategies to promote cycling in the short to medium term.     

Costs and benefits of a bicycle helmet law for Germany

This study presents a cost–benefit analysis of a law requiring cyclists to wear a helmet when riding a bicycle in Germany. The cost benefit-analysis takes into account the benefit of increased security when cyclists wear a helmet or use a transport mode that is less risky than cycling. The analysis also considers the cost of purchasing helmets, reduced fitness when cycling is replaced by a motorized transport mode, the discomfort of wearing helmets and environmental externalities. The benefits of a helmet law are estimated at about 0.7 of the costs. A bicycle helmet law for Germany is found to be a waste of resources.     

Modelling the potential for cycling in access trips to bus,train and metro in Rio de Janeiro

Most studies that address the integration of cycling and public transport (PT) focus on developed countries and deal with multi-modal bicycle-train trips. Little is known about the integration of cycling and other main modes such as bus and metro, especially in developing countries, where entirely different socio-economic and trip making conditions prevail. The aim of this study is to model the propensity of current PT users to shift to the bicycle in access trips to bus stops, train and metro stations in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Interviews were conducted to collect data on the socio-economic characteristics of the interviewee, trip and spatial characteristics and self-reported barriers and motivators for bicycle use. Two binary logit models were estimated to predict the main factors affecting the propensity to use a bicycle as feeder mode to PT. The results show that socio-economic characteristics as well as barriers and motivators are important factors to explain propensity for bike and ride. The barriers’ model reveals that personal constraints, living too close to the PT boarding point, current parking conditions and public safety play a role. For the motivators’ model, changing home location, owning a bicycle, implementation of cycle ways and improvement in parking conditions are explanatory. Policy recommendations are formulated to increase bicycle ownership and improve cycling infrastructure.     

Bicycle mode share in China: a city-level analysis of long term trends

In the past 15 years, cities in China have experienced big changes in socioeconomic and traffic conditions, resulting in a long term change in bicycle use. This study aims to quantify the changes in bicycle mode share in Chinese cities and explore the potential causes. Based on data from 51 cities, it is found that bicycle mode share at the city level decreased gradually in the past. Conventional bicycle mode share decreased with a rate of 3 % per year, but electric bicycle mode share increased with a rate of 2 % per year. The correlations between city features such as demographics and built environments and bicycle mode share at different city sizes are compared. The generalized linear models are estimated to relate the changes in the share of different trip modes to various city-level factors. The results show that the bicycle mode share in a city is impacted by factors including city area size, population density, number of cars, percentage of local road mileage among all roads, and trip purpose. Possible reasons for the changes in bicycle uses in Chinese cities are explored and policy implications are discussed.     

Exploring the link between the neighborhood typologies,bicycle infrastructure and commuting cycling over time and the potential impact on commuter GHG emissions

This paper investigates the evolution of urban cycling in Montreal, Canada and its link to both built environment indicators and bicycle infrastructure accessibility. The effect of new cycling infrastructure on transport-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is then explored. More specifically, we aim at investigating how commuting cycling modal share has evolved across neighborhood built-environment typologies and over time in Montreal, Canada. For this purpose, automobile and bicycle trip information from origin–destination surveys for the years 1998, 2003 and 2008 are used. Neighborhood typologies are generated from different built environment indicators (population and employment density, land use diversity, etc.). Furthermore, to represent the commuter mode choice (bicycle vs automobile), a standard binary logit and simultaneous equation modeling approach are adopted to represent the mode choice and the household location. Among other things, we observe an important increase in the likelihood to cycle across built environment types and over time in the study region. In particular, urban and urban-suburb neighborhoods have experienced an important growth over the 10 years, going from a modal split of 2.8–5.3% and 1.4–3.0%, respectively. After controlling for other factors, the model regression analysis also confirms the important increase across years as well as the significant differences of bicycle ridership across neighborhoods. A statistically significant association is also found between the index of bicycle infrastructure accessibility and bike mode choice – an increase of 10% in the accessibility index results in a 3.7% increase in the ridership. Based on the estimated models and in combination with a GHG inventory at the trip level, the potential impact of planned cycling infrastructure is explored using a basic scenario. A reduction of close to 2% in GHG emissions is observed for an increase of 7% in the length of the bicycle network. Results show the important benefits of bicycle infrastructure to reduce commuting automobile usage and GHG emissions.     

Travel mode attitudes,urban context,and demographics: do they interact differently for bicycle commuting and cycling for other purposes?

This study examined whether interactions between travel mode attitudes, urbanization level, and socio-demographics were different for bicycle commuting and cycling for other purposes. Data were obtained from the 2014 wave of the Netherlands mobility panel (MPN). In total, 2673 respondents (18?+?years) who had recorded at least one trip on the days covered by the survey were included in the sample. Four outcomes were constructed, two of which concerned commuting-related cycling: any commuting-related bicycle usage (yes vs. no) and average cycling duration (in hours per weekday). Likewise, two similar outcome variables concerning cycling for other proposes were constructed. These outcomes were analyzed by means of Tobit regression models (cycling duration) and binary logistic models (any bicycle usage). Attitudinal factors concerning different travel modes, namely bus, car, cycling, and train, were constructed by means of factor analysis. The results showed that a positive attitude toward cycling was positively related to bicycle commuting duration, but this association was less strong among those with a positive attitude toward bus use. Having a positive cycling attitude had a weaker association with both bicycle commuting usage and duration in those who do not always have a car available. Regarding cycling for other purposes, cycling attitude had a stronger positive association with cycling duration among residents of very highly urbanized area, compared to residents of less urbanized areas. The available evidence, though limited, suggests that targeting attitudes can have a measurable impact on bicycling, but not to the same extend among all people.

     

Improving the resolution of gridded-hourly mobile emissions: incorporating spatial variability and handling missing data

To more accurately predict hourly running stabilized link volumes for emissions modeling, a new method was recently developed that disaggregates the period-based model link volumes into hourly volumes using observed traffic count data and multivariate multiple regression (MMR). This paper extends the MMR methodology with clustering and classification analyses to account for spatial variability and to accommodate model links that do not have matching observed traffic count data. The methodology was applied to data collected in the South Air Basin. The spatial analysis resulted in identifying five clusters (or 24-h profiles) for San Diego and two clusters for Los Angeles. The MMR models were then estimated with and without clustering. For San Diego, the disaggregated model volumes with clustering were much closer to the observed volumes than those without clustering, with the exception of the a.m. period. For most hours in Los Angeles, the predicted volumes with clustering were only slightly closer to the observed volumes than those predicted without clustering, suggesting that spatial effects are minimal in Los Angeles (i.e., that 24-h volume profiles are fairly similar throughout the region) and clustering is not necessary. Finally, two classification models, one for San Diego and one for Los Angeles were developed and tested for network link data that does not have matching observed count data. The results indicate the procedure is relatively good at predicting a cluster assignment for the unmatched location for Los Angeles but less accurate for San Diego.     

Temporal trends and the effect of weather on pedestrian volumes: A case study of Montreal,Canada

This study examines the impact of weather on pedestrian activity, as well as the temporal trends of pedestrian flows in the city of Montreal, Canada. The direct and lagged effects of weather variables on hourly volumes are determined for the temperate and cold months, as well as for weekdays and weekends. Pedestrian hourly volumes are found to decrease in the winter. In downtown locations, there are three weekday pedestrian hourly peaks; a pattern distinctive from those observed in other surveys. Also, temperature, humidity, wind speed as well as direct and lagged effects of precipitation are the main factors affecting pedestrian activity. In winter, pedestrian flows are more sensitive to wind speeds and precipitation, and also during weekends than weekdays. Built environment plays a role not only in the magnitude but also in the temporal profile of pedestrian sidewalk activity. In comparison to bicycle ridership, pedestrian flows seem to be much less sensitive to weather.     

The effects of physical activity on greenhouse gas emissions for common transport modes in European countries

This paper applies a life cycle methodology to estimate activity-related contributions of transport modes to GHG emissions. The methodology uses national input–output tables, environmental accounts, household budget data and nutritional data to derive food-sector GHG coefficients of consumption for ten European countries. The food energy requirements for each mode of transport are estimated taking account of the modal activity level and energy requirements. Typical national food energy-related emissions for walking, cycling, and driving ranged from 25.6 to 77.3 gCO₂-eq/pass.km, 10.4–31.4 gCO₂-eq/pass.km and 1.7–5.2 gCO₂-eq/pass.km; passenger transport was found to result in no food-related emissions above those for a resting individual. Emissions vary between countries depending on the emissions intensities of their energy sectors as well as food prices and average body weights. A life cycle assessment of modal emissions in the UK is undertaken using the food-energy emissions intensities estimated and car travel was found to have the highest emissions intensity, followed by bus, cycling and walking.     

What’s your type: a multidimensional cyclist typology

Increasing bicycle use for utilitarian trips is a common city objective for health and environmental improvement and congestion reduction, but cyclists react heterogeneously to interventions and infrastructure. Understanding cyclist types helps in comprehending and planning for this diverse population. This study uses data from 2004 surveyed Montreal cyclists to generate a multidimensional cyclist typology based on seven factors derived from 35 variables, mostly proven determinants of the intensity of bicycle usage. The analysis revealed four distinct cyclist types: dedicated cyclists, path-using cyclists, fairweather utilitarians, and leisure cyclists. The cycling frequencies of each group respond differently to potential interventions and vary within commuting rate ranges with apparent minima and maxima. Building a network adapted to different cyclist types and emphasizing its convenience, flexibility and speed, could be an effective strategy to increase cycling mode share and frequency among the various groups. Findings from this study can be of benefit to transportation engineers, planners and policy makers as they help in better understanding the impacts of various interventions on the different groups of cyclists.     

The propensity for motorists to walk for short trips: Evidence from West Edinburgh

The trade-offs individuals make between the motor car and walking for short trips are investigated, using data from a West Edinburgh household survey. Propensity to walk discrete choice models are estimated from a stated preference experiment within the survey questionnaire. This includes segmented models using socio-economic, spatial and attitudinal variables. The relative importance of the three attributes of journey time, petrol cost and parking cost are examined; value of time estimates are also generated. With all other factors remaining constant, for short trips motorists are more likely to walk in response to an increase in parking costs than a rise in petrol prices. The use of parking as a transport policy tool is discussed.     

Designing a route planner to facilitate and promote cycling in Metro Vancouver,Canada

With increasing fuel costs, greater awareness of greenhouse gas emissions and increasing obesity levels, cycling is promoted as a health promoting and sustainable transport mode. We developed a cycling route planner (http://cyclevancouver.ubc.ca) for Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, to facilitate cycling amongst the general public and to facilitate new route location by transportation planners. The geographical information system-based planner incorporates variables that influence choices to travel by bicycle (e.g., distance, elevation gain, safety, route features, air pollution and links to transit) in selecting the preferred routing. Using a familiar and user-friendly Google Maps interface, the planner allows individuals to seek optimized cycling routes throughout the region based on their own preferences. In addition to the incorporation of multiple user preferences in route selection, the planner is unique amongst cycling route planners in its use of topology to minimize data storage redundancy, its reliance on node/vertex index tables to increase efficiency of the route selection process, and the use of web services and asynchronous technologies for quick data delivery. Use of this tool can help promote bicycle travel as a form of active transportation and help lower greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO₂) and air pollutant emissions by reducing car trips.     

Bicycle in Shanghai: Movement patterns,cyclist attitudes and the impact of traffic separation

Transportation demand continues to grow at an even faster rate than the economies of Chinese cities, placing increasing pressure on a limited road network. In certain cities of the more highly developed coastal plains, the bicycle assumed a dominant role in urban transport in the 1980s, a position maintained in the 1990s. In Shanghai, the bicycle continues to play a dominant role, although policies favour a switch to public transport. In the present paper, cyclist attitudes toward public transport policies were probed with a pilot questionnaire at two important central destinations. An important example of current policies with regard to bicycles involves the creation of separate networks for motorized and non-motorized modes. A pilot scheme for eventual application over a very large area was recently introduced in the central area. We report on the traffic volumes by mode and street before and after its implementation in 1999. Both bicycle and car volumes diminished in the central area, although the decrease was greater for bicycles. On the other hand, interviewed cyclists expressed resistance to various incentives to use public transport. The question raised here is whether the planned increase in public transport share of total intracity travel can be achieved without disincentives to use the bicycle.     

The use of the bicycle

The rediscovery of the bicycle by the public, by politicians and by professional urban transportation planners as a mode of transport which is perfectly in harmony with the goals of environmental protection, energy saving and personal fitness has stimulated this empirical study on the actual use of the bicycle by various population groups for obligatory and discretionary trip purposes. The influence on bicycle usage of such factors as age, education, car availability, residential density and town size, topography and time of year is analysed in this paper for selected population groups. For housewives from motorized households logit‐models were designed and calibrated to model their modal choice for shopping trips with special references to the bicycle. From the empirical results, the groups with the largest potentials for cycling are identified and the extent to which the potentials could be activated by specific policies is discussed. The research is based on a large sample held to be representative for the Federal Republic of Germany in 1976 and is supplemented by more recent surveys in selected German cities conducted by SOCIALDATA Munich.     

Estimation of the determinants of bicycle mode share for the journey to work using census data

A model is presented that relates the proportion of bicycle journeys to work for English and Welsh electoral wards to relevant socio-economic, transport and physical variables. A number of previous studies have exploited existing disaggregate data sets. This study uses UK 2001 census data, is based on a logistic regression model and provides complementary evidence based on aggregate data for the determinants of cycle choice. It suggests a saturation level for bicycle use of 43%. Smaller proportions cycle in wards with more females and higher car ownership. The physical condition of the highway, rainfall and temperature each have an effect on the proportion that cycles to work, but the most significant physical variable is hilliness. The proportion of bicycle route that is off-road is shown to be significant, although it displays a low elasticity (+0.049) and this contrasts with more significant changes usually forecast by models constructed from stated preference based data. Forecasting shows the trend in car ownership has a significant effect on cycle use and offsets the positive effect of the provision of off-road routes for cycle traffic but only in districts that are moderately hilly or hilly. The provision of infrastructure alone appears insufficient to engender higher levels of cycling.

Cycle commuting in Belgium: Spatial determinants and ‘re-cycling’ strategies

This paper attempts to explain the spatial variation of the use of a bicycle for commuting to work at the level of the 589 municipalities in Belgium. Regression techniques were used and special attention was paid to autocorrelation, heterogeneity and multicollinearity. Spatial lag models were used to correct for the presence of spatial dependence and a disaggregated modelling strategy was adopted for the northern and southern parts of the country. The results show that much of the inter-municipality variation in bicycle use is related to environmental aspects such as the relief, traffic volumes and cycling accidents. Town size, distance travelled and demographic aspects also have some effect. In addition, there are regional differences in the effects of the structural covariates on bicycle use: the impact of variables such as traffic volume and cycling accidents differs substantially between the north and the south of the country. This paper also suggests that high rates of bicycle use in one municipality stimulate cycling in neighbouring municipalities, and hence that a mass effect can be initiated, i.e. more cycle commuting encourages even more commuters in the area to cycle. These findings provide some recommendations for decision-makers wishing to promote a shift from car to bicycle use.     

A discrete–continuous model of households’ vehicle choice and usage, with an application to the effects of residential density

This paper develops a new method to solve multivariate discrete–continuous problems and applies the model to measure the influence of residential density on households’ vehicle fuel efficiency and usage choices. Traditional discrete–continuous modelling of vehicle holding choice and vehicle usage becomes unwieldy with large numbers of vehicles and vehicle categories. I propose a more flexible method of modelling vehicle holdings in terms of number of vehicles in each category, using a Bayesian multivariate ordinal response system. I also combine the multivariate ordered equations with Tobit equations to jointly estimate vehicle type/usage demand in a reduced form, offering a simpler alternative to the traditional discrete/continuous analysis. Using the 2001 National Household Travel Survey data, I find that increasing residential density reduces households’ truck holdings and utilization in a statistically significant but economically insignificant way. The results are broadly consistent with those from a model derived from random utility maximization. The method developed above can be applied to other discrete–continuous problems.     

Who cycles more? Determining cycling frequency through a segmentation approach in Montreal,Canada

The decision to cycle frequently in an urban setting is a complex process and is affected by a variety of factors. This study analyzed the various factors influencing cycling frequency among 1707 cyclists from Montreal, Canada using an ordinal logistic regression. A segmentation of cyclists is used in a series of ordinal logistic models to better understand the different impacts of variables on the frequency of cycling among each group of cyclists for commute and for utilitarian purposes. Our models show a variation in the impacts of each dependent variable on frequency of cycling across the various segments of cyclists. Mainly making cyclists feel safe not only on bicycle specific infrastructure but also on regular streets, emphasizing the low cost, convenience and improving the opinion on cycling in the population are effective interventions to increase bicycle usage. Also, it was shown that women were less likely to cycle to work than men, but more likely to cycle for other utilitarian trips, pointing at the presence of specific barriers to commuting for woman. Although the findings from this study are specific to Montreal, they can be of interest to transportation planners and engineers working toward increasing cycling frequency in other regions.     

The effect of non-recreational transport cycling on use of other transport modes: A cross-sectional on-line survey

Accurate modelling of the health and environmental benefits of non-recreational transport cycling requires information about its effects on the use of other transport modes. Relevant research has not focussed on cycling for transport in a general context (as opposed to bikeshare), nor allowed for multi-modal trips. The influence of trip- and personal-characteristics on whether cycling replaces car-driving have yet to be considered. The present study aimed to address these research gaps. An on-line cross-sectional survey was completed by 1525 Australians who cycle for transport at least once per week. For the most recent trip completed (at least partly) by bicycle participants provided trip distance, and percentage travelled by car, public transport (PT), and walking. They also provided the percentage travelled by each mode for the same trip before taking up transport cycling; and a hypothetical future trip when riding is not possible. Compared to the same trip before, fifty percent of recent trips reduced car use, and around 1/3 eliminated a 100%-car trip. Reduced car use was significantly less likely for trips under 7.5 km, commuting, females, respondents under 55, and regular cyclists. Reduced car use was less likely for respondents who started riding because it is flexible, and more likely for those who started riding to avoid parking. Car-use was reduced by an average of 6.2 km per trip, and each bicycle-km cycled replaced 0.5 car-km. Participants report that since taking up cycling, even when they cannot use their bike, they use cars less and use PT more compared to before they took up cycling. Results suggest that previous studies underestimated the extent to which transport cycling replaces car travel, and highlights trip types and population groups to target with cycling promotion strategies. Information about the per-trip and per-bicycle-km replacement of car, PT and walking may be used for more accurate estimation of the benefits of transport cycling than has hitherto been possible.     

Characterisation of and reflections on the synergy of bicycles and public transport

The bicycle is often understood as a disjointed ‘feeder’ mode that provides access to public transport. We argue that combined use of the bicycle and public transport should be understood in a broader perspective, especially where bicycles link to higher speed and higher capacity public transport, such as the train. Cycling and public transport can have a symbiotic relationship forming a hybrid, distinct transport mode, which should be reflected in transport planning. The bicycle is as a way to soften the rigid nature of public transport and thus accommodate diverse individual travel needs and situations. Public transport can be seen as a means to dramatically extend cycling’s speed and spatial reach. We combine a system perspective with conceptual analysis to explore how, why and when this reconsideration is important. We use the Netherlands as illustrative case because of the relative maturity of its bicycle–train connections. The case shows that the synergy between rather opposite yet highly complementary aspects, high speed of the train, high accessibility of the bicycle and flexibility in combining both sub-modes, are the fundamental characteristics to understand the functioning of this system in a wider spatial context. In our conclusion we propose a research agenda, to further explore the relevance of this system for land-use and transport planning and distil wider implications for the international debate.