The geographical foundations of tanker (dirty) shipping

A simulation model of individual ship movements demonstrates that distance-weighted regional imbalances of tonnage supply and demand are powerful estimators of tanker rates that are converted to approximate time charter equivalents. Statistical fit is acceptable to good when cargo cycles (ballast–load–cargo–discharge) are the units of observation, either individually or aggregated by region. Up to 30–40% higher average time charter equivalent is possible in an outstanding year, such as in 2004, when consistent use is made of this feature.     

定期租船合同中租金的确定

船舶营运中,船舶经营人以期租方式将船租给承运人时,运价的确定是租船合同中一项重要的内容。从船舶经营人的角度出发,通过分析船舶营运成本,将上述复杂的计算编制成简明的EXCEL计算程序,以期对船舶经营人有所裨益。     

期租合同中的租期计算与相关条款之影响

期租合同的租期应是一个确定的时段,但航运实践中的租期却很难精确计算。这其中有租期条款本身措辞的问题,也有合同中其他条款的影响。通过对TheKritiAkti一案的案情和判决的研究,阐述期租合同下租期计算中存在的一些问题及对策。     

-statistic is the ratio between a normal (0,1) distributed variable and the square root of a centrally distributed chi-square variable divided by its expected value, i.e., its degree of freedom.

This paper evaluates empirically some very common theories of the freight rate generating process in the time charter markets. After a review of the most common assumptions made of the way time charter rates are set, the hypotheses are identified as follows: (a) the Zannetos Hypothesis, (b), the Lagged Zannetos Hypothesis, (c) the Koyck Lag Hypothesis, (d) the Rational Expectation Hypothesis, and (e) the Conventional Wisdom Hypothesis. These hypotheses are tested using statistical cointegration analysis that includes both an Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), and a Johansen likelihood ratio test. Confronted with the data, hypotheses (a) and (b) are rejected outrightly. In the Koyck Lag case, the ADF statistic seem to confirm the hypothesis. A closer look at the numbers reveals that all of the impact on the time charter rates comes from the lagged dependent variable. Hence, the Koyck Lag Hypothesis is rejected. In the Rational Expectation case, the two tests conflicted. Based on the fact that the Rational Expectation Hypothesis includes the lagged dependent variable and that the Johansen test has been found to be a more robust test than the ADF test, the Rational Expectation Hypothesis is rejected. The fifth hypothesis is a reflection of the general bulk industry perception that the time charter rate is impacted by changes in the comparable spot rate and not much by the spot rate levels. In this case both the ADF and the Johansen test accepted the hypothesis for all markets. Thus, the paper concludes that the conventional market explanation of the time charter freight rate setting process is essentially correct-spot rate changes matter spot rate levels do not.     

Price formation of dry bulk carriers in the Chinese shipbuilding industry

In this paper, we present, for the first time, the price formation of Chinese dry bulk carriers based on the historical shipbuilding contract prices. Price determinants include generic market factors as well as Chinese elements. Principal component regression analysis is employed as the solution for the multicollinearity problem among explanatory variables. The result indicates that the time charter rate has the most significant positive impact on shipbuilding price; increases in three other factors, namely the cost of shipbuilding, the price-cost margin and the shipbuilding capacity utilisation, have positive influences in the descending order. Unlike the traditional perception of newbuilding price that shipbuilding cost has the most significant effect, we assert that the most important role the time charter rate plays is attributed mainly to the ‘China Factor’ in the bulk carrier sector. In addition, simulations are performed to investigate what would happen to the Chinese dry bulk carrier prices under changes in the time charter rate and shipbuilding cost. The findings are useful for Chinese shipyards, shipowners and emerging shipbuilders.     

期租合约下的航速计算和索赔

期租下的履约航速计算结果涉及到航速索赔和燃油索赔,关系到船舶的营运成效,因而航速计算显得很重要。航速计算和索赔涉及期租合约及相关条款的订立和良好天气的定义、根据租约相关条款采用的计算方法、良好天气下的航速计算、气象导航公司的评估报告。     

Recreational Leasing of Alaska Commercial Halibut Quota: The Early Years of the GAF Program in Alaska

The Pacific Halibut Catch Sharing Plan formalized the process for allocating halibut between the Alaska commercial and recreational charter sectors. It included a new program intended to allow for “flexibility” through inter-sectoral trading, permitting charter operators to lease commercial halibut pounds to relax client harvest restrictions. Here we evaluate the first two years of lease market activity and participation. Participation from some commercial quota holders in the lease market suggests that the program provided beneficial flexibility; in fact, the number of transfers to the charter sector was greater than transfers within the commercial sector for some quota types. We also identified a high proportion of self-leasers. However, transfers to the charter sector were on average smaller than within-sector commercial transfers, and total poundage leased by the charter sector was low compared with commercial transfers. Usage of leased quota by the recreational charter sector enables the harvest of larger fish or additional fish, and provides flexibility in catch composition on halibut closure days. Finally, the value-per-pound may be higher in the charter sector, as commercial-to-charter transfer prices approached the commercial ex-vessel price.     

Methodology for ro-ro ship and fleet sizing with application to short sea shipping

A novel methodology is developed for determining the characteristics of a cargo roll-on/roll-off (ro-ro) ship and the fleet size required for a given short sea shipping route. The ship and required fleet size to satisfy the transportation demand (for each pair of speed and freight rate) are determined using a database of existing cargo ro-ro ships to obtain the main technical characteristics of the most suitable ship. The time charter, voyage costs and revenue are then calculated considering the technical characteristics of each ship. Fuel costs are corrected for the actual ship speed and loading condition. A number of restrictions in the transportation problem are considered leading to the exclusion of unfeasible solutions. The maximum profit over the period of a year is identified among the feasible pairs of speed and freight rate. This general methodology is applied in a case study that considers the route between Leixões (Portugal) and Rotterdam (Netherlands). The study allows the identification of the most suitable ship and fleet sizes for different market penetration levels and quantifies the impact on shipping company profit of changes in parameters such as fuel costs, time charter costs, emission control area, installed propulsion power and stacking factor.     

Effect of risk preference on the valuation of time charter contracts with extension options

ABSTRACT

The literature on valuation of time charter contracts and real options in shipping generally relies on the complete markets hypothesis and the risk-neutrality of agents. However, these assumptions fail completely in some shipping market segments. This study proposes a numerical approach—based on discounting the certainty equivalent payoff at the risk-free rate—which incorporates the agent’s risk preferences through an exponential utility function. The method comprises an iterative Monte Carlo nested simulation with the real probability measure. This method is applied to a case of Suezmax tankers. The stochastic evolution of the time charter rates is modelled as a geometric mean-reverting process. The case study supports the applicability of the proposed method and evidences that the effect of risk preference may be significant, mainly for more risk-averse agents. Although the method involves intensive computation, it has the benefits of theoretical ease and flexibility, which could encourage utilisation by practitioners.     

Lessons from bankruptcy of Hanjin Shipping Company in chartering

This paper aims to analyze the charter contract management of major container shipping companies in response to fluctuations in shipping market conditions in terms of contract duration using data of containerships between 2010 and 2016. Duration analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between charter duration and shipping market conditions. Moreover, this paper explores the causes of Hanjin Shipping Company’s bankruptcy, drawing managerial implications. Test results from Cox PH (Proportional Hazard) model show that most container shipping companies in Europe having net earnings purchased large vessels instead of chartering vessels, while some ocean carriers featuring poor financial performance, in particular the Hanjin Shipping Company, chartered bigger ships with higher charter rates and longer duration. Contract charter rates and duration of Hanjin Shipping Company featured greater risk compared to competitors.     

租约与战争风险

随着恐怖分子对美国的袭击及其后战争风险的加剧,战争风险问题已成为航运业的热门话题,船舶所有人除了要面对海上保险业中愈来愈苛刻的战争保险条款,更要面对租约中变化多端的战争条款。二战后,BIMCO推荐的各种标准战争条款(例如Voywar条款和Conwartime条款)已被广泛地采用;然而实践也表明,BIMCO标准的战争条款并不能涵盖所有的战争风险,作为船舶所有人若知道船舶将进入战区,对BIMCO标准战争条款的内容根据实际情况进行重新设计是必要的,但这要建立在对BIMCO标准战争条款仔细研究的基础上。本文将以BIMCO标准战争条款(Voywar1993和Conwartime1993)为基础,对几种常用的标准战争条款做一评析和比较。     

Fleet deployment optimization for liner shipping Part 2. Implementation and results

We use linear programming (LP) for solving the problem of the optimal deployment of an existing fleet of multipurpose or fully containerized ships, among a given set of routes, including information for lay-up time, if any, and type and number of extra ships to charter, based on a detailed and realistic model for the calculation of the operating costs of all the ship types in every route and on a suitable LP formulation developed in earlier work of the authors. The optimization model is also applicable to the problem of finding the best fleet compostion and deployment, in a given set of trade routes, which may be the case when a shipping company is considering new or modified services, or a renewal of the existing fleet. In addition, two promising mixed linear-integer programming formulations are suggested.     

Duration analysis for recurrent ship accidents

About 63% of the world’s shipping accidents are recurrent—they occur to ships that have already experienced at least one prior accident. Therefore, reducing recurrent accidents can contribute significantly to maritime safety. We study the factors affecting both first and recurrent accidents, by focusing on the duration between two accidents. Cox proportional hazard models are applied to ship accident data from 1996 to 2015, and the results identify which ships have a high risk of recurrent accidents, based on ship attributes, ship supply and market conditions, shipbuilding country, previous accident type, and ship type. The recurrent rate is high when the ship involved in the accident is old, small, flies a flag of convenience, and has no detention record. In addition, the accident risk increases when the shipping market faces a high bunker price, overcapacity in supply, a high time charter rate, or low newbuilding price. On the other hand, ships built in China and Japan have lower recurrent accident rates than those built elsewhere, although ships built in China have earlier first accidents than do others. General cargo ships have the highest recurrent accident rate, followed by dry bulkers, container ships, and tankers, in that order.     

Valuation of time charter contracts for ships

This article describes a valuation method for time charter contracts for ships, i.e. leasing contracts for ships with embedded Bermudan options for buying the ship and extending the contract. As there often are embedded foreign exchange options in the buy options on the ship, a two factor stochastic model is developed and it is shown how the price can be determined applying techniques from contingent claim analysis such as dynamic programming.     

The value of options for time charterparty extension: an artificial neural networks (ANN) approach

The most frequently associated options in the physical shipping market are options to extend the charter period on time charters and additional shipment options on contracts of affreightment. The value of freight options, in practice, is estimated mostly by referring to forward curves. An option on freight has different properties from its financial counterparts, and the straightforward adoption of theoretical models does not produce promising results. In this paper, extension options, which have the property of options on futures, were transformed into regular European options before the application of the Black-Scholes model (BSM). The efficient market hypothesis, which justifies the parity of the performance of a long-term charter to that of repetitive short-term charters, worked as the basis for the transformation. The option values determined by the BSM were compared with actual realized values. Additionally, the artificial neural networks (ANN) was employed to derive the option values. This study is meaningful as the first-time application of both the closed-form solution and the ANN to the valuation of physical freight options. The research results can contribute to the quality of chartering decisions. The results could also be used in quantifying credit risk, as extension options tend to be granted to charterers with more creditability.     

发展船舶融资租赁 引领航运事业振兴

文中对船舶融资租赁进行了概述,分析了我国船舶融资租赁业发展中存在的问题,探讨了金融危机下发展船舶融资租赁的必要性,并据此提出了对策和建议。     

Conditional modelling of tanker market risk using route specific freight rates

This paper provides statistical evidence in support of the view, widely held in the tanker industry, that there are systematic differences in the degree of risk involved in investing in tankers of different sizes, and in operating tankers in spot and time charter markets. The industry view, broadly supported by the results of this paper, is that larger vessels are 'risker' assets than smaller vessels, and operating vessels in the time-charter market is less risky than employing them on a spot basis. The results are obtained by using a method derived from the financial economics literature, which models both the conditional mean and variance of a variable, known as GARCH modelling. Only one other paper has applied this method to the tanker market, and these results provide confirmatory support of those findings.     

定期租船合同下最后航次的法律分析

结合我国《海商法》、《合同法》及英国判例,对定期租船合同下的合法最后航次和非法最后航次的含义和法律后果等做出分析,并提出了法律条文的修改建议。     

Operative strategy in tanker (dirty) shipping

Tanker (dirty) operational areas are identified with the help of itineraries and their profitability is estimated with time charter equivalent (TCE, $/day). The level is heavily influenced by the way waiting between cargo cycles is handled. Four alternatives are tried, planned (‘optimal’), simulated and two observed ones, with no or all-inclusive waiting. The choice of alternative is unlikely to upset area ranking seriously. Observed itineraries without waiting are selected. Small vessel size leads to fragmented markets and much variation in TCE. Endemic tonnage oversupply in the Far East depresses TCE in the Panamax, Aframax and Suezmax (PAS) segments. The barrier effect of canals is visible. The Worldscale system pays for port time which raises the paydays/ballastdays ratio and makes itineraries consisting of short cargo cycles attractive. Worldwide itineraries give mediocre TCEs.     

Valuation of VLCCs under income uncertainty

In this paper two alternative ways of modelling the stochastic nature of the time charter equivalent spot rate in the market for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) are presented. It has been proposed that the freight rate follows an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We follow up this approach of relating uncertainty directly to the rate process itself by suggesting a geometric mean reversion process. Empirical findings are presented. Then we address the question of valuing a VLCC. Due to the presence of uncertainty, flexibility to choose operation policy influences the value. We focus on lay up and scrapping as alternatives to spot operation. The option to lay up is relatively more important for a new vessel than for an old one, whereas the option to scrap becomes relatively more valuable as the vessel gets older.