太平洋航线集装箱货流量GM（1，1）-马尔可夫链预测方法探讨

运用灰色系统理论对太平洋航线集装箱货流量进行定量预测，并结合马尔可夫预测方法对航线运量进行定性分析，达到定量与定性预测相结合的目的，使预测结果更加合理。采用马尔可夫链划分系统的状态，得出状态转移概率矩阵，分析了太平洋航线集装箱货流量的发展变化区间并预测集装箱航运市场的发展前景。     

太平洋航线集装箱运输量预测及超大型集装箱船的发展前景探讨

通过收集大量太平洋航线集装箱运输信息，利用GM（1，1）灰色系统模型，并运用马尔可夫方法得出太平洋航线集装箱运输的定量预测结果。通过超大型集装箱船与普通集装箱船经济效益的比较，及超大型集装箱船的航运形势及其市场供需状况分析，得到8000～10000TEU集装箱船具有良好的发展前景。     

主要东西航线集装箱货量分析

2002．年底美国经济处于衰退之中，但亚洲至美国航线的集装箱货量增长率达20％，大大超过分析人士预测的6％。到2003年底和2004年初，美国经济经历着据说是近20年来最为景气的时刻，但太平洋东行货量的增长却差强人意。据美国PIERS的统计数据，亚洲到美国的集装箱货量在2003年第三季度比2002年同期仅增长3．4％。尽管2003年前9个月的总体增长率达9．5％，远洋班轮公司仍     

环球航运

亚洲海运货量居世界第一，全球20大集装箱班轮公司最新排名，美国至亚洲贸易航线明年调升运费，美要求国际航空和海运公司提供乘客名单，太平洋航线货量不平衡加剧，欧洲—地中海航线承运人向以港征收THC，欧盟正式成立航运安全代理机构，美伊若战苏伊士运河将减收10％，5家班轮公司达成舱位共享协议。     

媒体

由于对运力过剩的担忧，闲置船舶增加，在太平洋航线上已经出现了一些舱位紧张的迹象。美国一家物流企业／无船承运人Transplace称，很多客户抱怨，从中国出口的集装箱货获得舱位开始变得困难了。东方海外美国公司总裁ErxinYao称，9月份以来，跨太平洋航线上已经裁撤了10％的运力。德鲁里（Drewry）统计，     

媒体

由于对运力过剩的担忧，闲置船舶增加，在太平洋航线上已经出现了一些舱位紧张的迹象。美国一家物流企业／无船承运人Transplace称，很多客户抱怨，从中国出口的集装箱货获得舱位开始变得困难了。东方海外美国公司总裁ErxinYao称，9月份以来，跨太平洋航线上已经裁撤了10％的运力。德鲁里（Drewry）统计，     

马士基下调其全球集装箱贸易预期

由于经济形势不振．亚欧航线2012年出口集装箱箱量预计将下滑3％，据此，马士基航运发布预测称，公司今年将遭遇全球集装箱贸易下行的巨大压力。最令市场恐慌的莫过于货量快速萎缩的亚欧航线。     

运价费收

加拿大太平洋航线稳定协议(CTSA)的12家成员公司日前决定,将从8月1日开始在亚洲/加拿大东行航线增收空箱调运附加费,以期解决航线日趋严重的双向货载失衡问题。CTSA新的收费标准为:每40英尺集装箱货物加收200美元,其它类型箱货的空箱调运附加费将视比例征收。     

国际集装箱班轮运输市场的集中度算法与实证分析

针对传统的市场集中度算法不能适应国际集装箱班轮运输市场的问题,对该市场的特殊性进行分析并在此基础上对传统算法进行尝试性的修正,利用修正后的方法进行实证分析,将其应用于远东—北欧、环太平洋、远东—地中海和远东—澳洲等4条航线,采用定量与定性相结合的方法判断这4条航线的集中度。     

国际

世界主要国家、地区集装箱吞吐量；国际多式联运可大大节约燃料；集装箱检验员资格考试12月2日举行；IICL集装箱检验员名录1995年版发行；北亚与地中游航运明年5月起在欧洲航线共同配船；日本往南非各港集装箱提高运价；日本、远东／澳大利亚东南航线上半年南航货流量3．7％；北美西航运价协定提高码头建设费。     

基于灰色马尔科夫模型的重庆市水运货运量的预测*

通过对重庆水运发展现状的研究,根据马尔科夫理论及灰色预测模型,将灰色GM模型与马尔科夫状态转移矩阵相结合,建立了预测重庆水运货运量的灰色马尔科夫模型,并通过实际预测发现,该模型的预测精度明显高于灰色预测模型的预测结果,并预测了2011—2012年重庆市水运货运量。     

Strategic fleet size planning for maritime refrigerated containers

In the present economic climate, it is often the case that profits can only be improved, or for that matter maintained, by improving efficiency and cutting costs. This is particularly notorious in the shipping business, where it has been seen that the competition is getting tougher among carriers, thus alliances and partnerships are resulting for cost effective services in recent years. In this scenario, effective planning methods are important not only for strategic but also operating tasks, covering their entire transportation systems. Container fleet size planning is an important part of the strategy of any shipping line. This paper addresses the problem of fleet size planning for refrigerated containers, to achieve cost-effective services in a competitive maritime shipping market. An analytical model is first discussed to determine the optimal size of an own dry container fleet. Then, this is extended for an own refrigerated container fleet, which is the case when an extremely unbalanced trade represents one of the major investment decisions to be taken by liner operators. Next, a simulation model is developed for fleet sizing in a more practical situation and, by using this, various scenarios are analysed to determine the most convenient composition of refrigerated fleet between own and leased containers for the transpacific cargo trade.     

码头集卡运输线路的模型研究及设计

集装箱码头的集卡调度优化问题已经应用到生产领域，但其中有一个重要的问题就是集卡运输线路的选择还相对研究较少。运用了线性规划的RVP模型设计了一个算法，并在模拟程序中进行实现，效果较好。计划在新的集装箱码头管理系统中将该模型融合进去。     

Structure, conduct and performance on the major liner shipping routes 1

Market concentration on the major container shipping routes has the potential to reduce contestability, impede effective competition and, as a consequence, inhibit the positive relationship between trade and economic growth. This development could also hamper the ability of economic regions to realize their respective competitive and comparative advantages. Within this context, the structure-conduct-performance (SCP) framework is used to analyse liner shipping dynamics in the transpacific, Europe-Far East and transatlantic trade routes. The analysis finds no conclusive evidence that either the increased concentration of slot capacity or the attempts by shipping lines to boost potential slot capacity (mainly through collaborative arrangements) lead to improved financial performance. The paper concludes that, despite high and increasing concentration among carriers on each of the trade routes analysed, these markets remain contestable.     

Towards an ‘inland terminal centred’ value proposition

The two main value propositions in international container transport are ‘port-to-port’ services and ‘door-to-door’ services. In port-to-port services, buyers ‘just’ purchase maritime transport from a shipping line. Door-to-door services comprise the total transport chain and include land-based transport. Carriers as well as forwarders offer these door-to-door services. In this paper we provide a qualitative assessment of an emerging third value proposition that is centred around inland terminals (ILTs). Such a value proposition consists of transport up to the ILT, and may have advantages over port-to-port services, such as better leverage of scale economies, better repositioning of empty containers and better alignment with the business model of forwarders. This paper conceptually and empirically explores such a value proposition.     

柔性靠泊方式的集装箱码头马尔可夫过程研究

基于马尔可夫过程,分析柔性靠泊的生灭过程,结合实际集装箱码头,计算泊位系统状态转移概率和稳态分布概率。运用计算机仿真技术,提出基于随机过程的码头柔性靠泊通过能力的分析方法。通过仿真试验,根据实际数据,验证了方法的正确性。     

Structure,conduct and performance on the major liner shipping routes 1

Market concentration on the major container shipping routes has the potential to reduce contestability, impede effective competition and, as a consequence, inhibit the positive relationship between trade and economic growth. This development could also hamper the ability of economic regions to realize their respective competitive and comparative advantages. Within this context, the structure-conduct-performance (SCP) framework is used to analyse liner shipping dynamics in the transpacific, Europe–Far East and transatlantic trade routes. The analysis finds no conclusive evidence that either the increased concentration of slot capacity or the attempts by shipping lines to boost potential slot capacity (mainly through collaborative arrangements) lead to improved financial performance. The paper concludes that, despite high and increasing concentration among carriers on each of the trade routes analysed, these markets remain contestable.     

港口集装箱装卸作业的碳排放量计算方法

港口属于能源密集型行业,码头前方装卸生产和后方储运作业中的能源消耗量和碳排放量较高。结合港口集装箱码头的装卸作业,重点分析各装卸运输设备的能源消耗指标及其影响因素,提出计算集装箱码头碳排放量的理论公式,为定量描述集装箱港口碳排放情况提供参考。     

促进集装箱码头节能减排的新型GRID系统

环境保护是我国的基本国策,港口是我国物流综合运输体系的枢纽和重要节点,担负着节能减排的艰巨任务。GRID系统是适用于港口集装箱码头水平运输的新型设备,GRID系统的装卸设备具有自重轻、作业环节少和全电力驱动等优点,有利于集装箱码头的节能减排。     

珠江三角洲3000t内河集装箱船最佳航线探讨

珠江三角洲是我国与世界重要的制造业基地,随着珠江三角洲经济的发展,近年来通过珠江三角洲内河运输的集装箱量有了很大的增长.在实地调研珠江三角洲港口、航道及船型的基础上,提出了从南沙至三水3000t集装箱船适宜的最佳航线,旨在为开发新船型作准备,以适应珠江三角洲集装箱运输的发展需要.