基于灰色二次指数平滑的QAR参数关联度预测

由于QAR参数波动的后果具有潜在性和滞后性,因此分析人员容易忽视其危险性而使其发展为不利事件。针对该问题,提出运用QAR参数关联度分析的方法,建立QAR参数波动与事件之间的对应关系;并构建基于二次指数平滑-灰色关联法的关联度预测模型,进一步明确QAR参数波动与事件之间关系的动态变化趋势。运用实际数据对该模型进行验证,表明结论符合实际,该模型科学合理,可以用于QAR参数分析过程。     

Open skies and open gates

Airline alliances are a global transportation issue which is the subject of increasing attention in the literature. A simple simulation model of air carrier competition in a network is constructed to examine the economic welfare effects of different levels of alliance between the carriers serving the network. The simulations confirm that consumers derive benefits from improved access to passenger markets. However, in many cases, carriers tend to gain from a limited alliance such as code-sharing. This suggests that closer alliances may be driven by other considerations such as raising barriers to entry or the cross-subsidisation of international routes through greater control of the domestic market.     

The introduction of innovation in Urban transport

More than 200 new systems of transport have been proposed as solutions to problems of urban congestion. However, very few of these have reached even the prototype stage and practically none at all have ever actually been installed.

The author asks himself why this is so. If an invention is to be introduced into a field which is poorly receptive to innovation, it must not only bring something really new and attractive for the users on the functional level as opposed merely to the technological level, but must also consider the political, industrial, social and human context.

The author gives two examples of innovation conceived and developed at the Battelle Geneva Research Centre: one for private transport, a new system for an electric car which will include the interests of the petrol industry, and the other for public transport, the “Speedaway” sponsored by Dunlop Limited. These two systems will be put on the market shortly and will attempt to fulfill the criteria mentioned above.     

A heuristic model for frequency planning and aircraft routing in small size airlines

The flight schedule of an airline is the primary factor in finding the most effective and efficient deployment of the airline's resources. The flight schedule process aims at finding a set of routes with associated aircraft type, frequency of service and times of departures and arrivals in order to satisfy a specific objective such as profit maximization. In this paper, we develop a two‐phase heuristic model for airline frequency planning and aircraft routing for small size airlines. The first phase develops a frequency plan using an economic equilibrium model between passenger demand for flying a particular route and aircraft operating characteristics. The second phase uses a time‐of‐day model to develop an assignment algorithm for aircraft routing.     

时速200 km动车组通过隧道时空气动力学效应现场试验与研究

与常规铁路隧道不同,客运专线铁路隧道设计除了要考虑满足围岩稳定性、建筑限界等外,还必须考虑高速列车在隧道中运行时所诱发的空气动力学效应的影响。文章通过遂渝线200km/h提速综合试验中的隧道气动力及结构动力学试验,对200 km/h动车组通过隧道内和列车上瞬变压力、空气动力荷载、列车风、微气压波等进行分析与研究,从而为时速200 km/h客运专线隧道的设计提供依据。     

The airline perturbation problem: considering disrupted passengers

Abstract

When airlines are faced with some unforeseen short-term events, they have to reconstruct their flight schedules. Although aircraft recovery decisions affect passengers, these disrupted passengers and recovering them have not been explicitly considered in most previous aircraft recovery models. This paper presents an assignment model for airline schedule recovery which recovers both aircraft and disrupted passengers simultaneously, using a rolling horizon time framework. Our model examines possible flight retiming, aircraft swapping, over-flying, ferrying, utilization of reserve aircraft, cancellation and passenger reassignment to generate an efficient schedule recovery plan. The model ensures that the schedule returns to normal within a certain time and the objective is to minimize operational recovery aircraft cost, cancellation and delay cost as well as disrupted passenger cost. The model is tested using a data-set with two disruption scenarios. The computational results show that it is capable of handling the integrated aircraft and passenger recovery problem successfully.     

Competition policy and the liberalisation of European aviation

The European aviation industry is undergoing a process of liberalisation. One of the important lessons of American deregulation was that the industry is not perfectly contestable. One implication of this is that actual competition on a route is important in order to be able to secure the benefits of deregulation or liberalisation. Another is that effective competition policy is important in order to prevent anti-competitive mergers or predatory behaviour. This paper reviews the merger investigations in European aviation which have accompanied the search by carriers to secure the benefits of market power, and considers the extent of route competition within the European Community and its relationship to the different route licensing policies of different national governments. The paper considers the extent of present competition on the busiest routes, and stresses the importance of cabotage rights in opening up the European market to effective competition.     

The challenge of liberalising domestic airline competition in a less developed country

A new wave of liberalisation of domestic airline competition is taking place in less developed nations, although the initial motivation in most cases is to supplement the capacity of the government's own airline. Liberalisation tends to begin with free market entry and a strong interest in privatisation while other regulatory controls are maintained. This position is untenable and policy makers in the less developed countries are having to learn quickly without the benefit of the detailed analyses that preceded liberalisation in the developed countries. This paper explores these problems and focuses on the lessons that policy makers in the less developed countries can draw from experiences elsewhere.     

格拉管线技术改造后首次顺序输送航空煤油实践

格拉管线几年前进行了维持性技术改造,实现了由“旁接罐“流程为主向“泵到泵“密闭流程为主进行顺序输油的转变.2006年底采用“泵到泵“密闭流程方式首次顺序输送航空煤油,克服易发生静电着火、混油事故、憋压抽空事故等困难而获得了成功.文中就克服上述困难,确保输送航煤质量所采取的措施进行了阐述,对今后不断提高航空煤油输送水平的问题进行了研究.