The impact of low sulphur fuel requirements in shipping on the competitiveness of roro shipping in Northern Europe

Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention aims for a reduction in sulphur oxide emissions from ships. The limits applicable at sea in Emission Control Areas (ECAs) were reduced from 1.5% to 1% in 2010 and are planned to be further reduced to 0.1%, effective from 1 January 2015. This paper analyses the impact of the International Maritime Organization’s Tier II/III standards introduced by Annex VI amendments adopted in October 2008 on costs and prices of roro (roll on/roll off) traffic in the ECAs in North Europe and on the competitiveness of roro shipping in the ECAs compared to trucking. We demonstrate that the new Annex VI agreement may be quite costly for the participants in the shipping industry and will result in higher freight rates. Based on a detailed price analysis on modal competition between the roro/truck option and the ‘truck only’ option on thirty origin–destination routes linked to the ECAs, we conclude that the use of low sulphur fuel is expected to increase the transport prices particularly on the origin–destination relations with a medium or long short sea section. The paper also presents the results of a survey among leading short sea operators in the ECAs in view of providing more insight on expected modal shifts and price elasticity in the short sea market.     

Methodology for ro-ro ship and fleet sizing with application to short sea shipping

A novel methodology is developed for determining the characteristics of a cargo roll-on/roll-off (ro-ro) ship and the fleet size required for a given short sea shipping route. The ship and required fleet size to satisfy the transportation demand (for each pair of speed and freight rate) are determined using a database of existing cargo ro-ro ships to obtain the main technical characteristics of the most suitable ship. The time charter, voyage costs and revenue are then calculated considering the technical characteristics of each ship. Fuel costs are corrected for the actual ship speed and loading condition. A number of restrictions in the transportation problem are considered leading to the exclusion of unfeasible solutions. The maximum profit over the period of a year is identified among the feasible pairs of speed and freight rate. This general methodology is applied in a case study that considers the route between Leixões (Portugal) and Rotterdam (Netherlands). The study allows the identification of the most suitable ship and fleet sizes for different market penetration levels and quantifies the impact on shipping company profit of changes in parameters such as fuel costs, time charter costs, emission control area, installed propulsion power and stacking factor.     

Job satisfaction and personality of Merchant Navy officers

Until recently little research had been carried out into job satisfaction of seafarers. Wastage in the shipping industry is higher than most other industries and although some improvements have been made to working conditions and facilities the wastage is still very high.

During the last two decades shipping technology has changed drastically, necessitated by changing economic factors, resulting in the need for highly trained personnel. Training costs are high, particularly for officers, and could be reduced if efficient selection processes were employed.

The project is designed to study perceived and implied (calculated) job satisfaction of officers who have served in the Merchant Navy for five years or more. Gone are the days of high port-time/sea-time ratios due to increased port and labour costs. Consequently seafarers may be confined together for longer periods at sea such that a different type of personality may be required to survive the stresses and strains of such a way of life. The project also attempted to discover whether the personalitics of the seafaring officers differ from those of the shoreside population and whether personality is related to job satisfaction at sea.

The project took the form of a survey by applying a questionnaire to Merchant Navy deck, engineer and radio officers at nautical educational establishments between September and October 1978.

The results showed that the majority of officers have a moderately high level of perceived job satisfaction whereas implied satisfaction was comparatively low. The personality of officers was found to be significantly different from that of the shoreside population in almost 50% of the 31 personality scales measured. There were also found to be differences between the personalities of deck and engineer officers.

A correlational study indicated that the personality of the Merchant Navy officer is related to overall job satisfaction.     

Operational measures to mitigate and reverse the potential modal shifts due to environmental legislation

On 1 January 2015, the sulphur upper limit for marine fuels used within sulphur emission control areas was lowered from 1% to 0.1%, with which vessels can comply only through using pricier ultra-low-sulphur fuel, or investing in abatement technologies. A potential increase of fuel prices could lead to closures of services due to the combined effects of loss of market due to higher freight rates, and increased operational costs. This paper builds on previous work allowing the modelling of modal shifts between sea and land-based options, and assesses the potential of operational measures that ship-owners can deploy to cope with the threat of the low-sulphur requirements. The measures include speed reduction, change of service frequency, use of alternative fuels such as liquefied natural gas, investments in scrubber systems, and improved fleet assignment. The proposed measures are tested on a set of case studies for services that are part of a short sea shipping network of a leading Ro-Ro operator. The results of this work can be useful to practitioners seeking to design new strategies that improve the resilience of their network, as well as to regulatory bodies designing new regulation that could have negative implications on certain sectors.     

Effects of the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative on the wine import logistics of China

China’s Belt and Road (BR) initiative is expected to facilitate international trade between the countries involved. In this study, we review the special requirements of wine logistics and the market growth potential of wine consumption in China. A model minimizing generalized logistical costs is developed and applied to wine imports in China, so that the best candidate cities in which to locate transport gateways and distribution centers can be identified. Our analysis suggests that the most preferred gateways are Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong, which all have similar delivery costs. In comparison, Beijing and Chongqing have much higher delivery costs, mainly because they do not have good access to marine transport and/or efficient domestic distribution networks. For long-distance intercontinental transport of large volumes of wine, marine shipping remains the only viable delivery mode. However, wine distribution within China extensively uses air, road, and water transport. Therefore, cities with excellent multi-modal transport services are better positioned to become wine logistics gateways. Our study also highlights the importance of value-added services and good government support, which are important factors that influence distribution costs and quality.     

Investment strategies in market uncertainty

The nature of the global economy is one of dynamic change. Shipping is a service industry with its demand related to changes in international trade levels and patterns. As a consequence shipping is subject to sometimes unpredictable swings in demand so that the operator is required to make strategic planning decisions while navigating through boom or bust environments. While boom economies generate rising freight rates which are welcomed and encourage investment, ship operators may also have to face falling freight demand and declining freight rates that may have significant impact on profitability, often falling to uneconomic levels for extended periods. In such a period of uncertainty and declining profitability management will make operational decisions to reduce costs. However, shipping lines operate in a market environment so any decisions made to rationalize the trade may have significant long-term competitive implications. For example, traditional micro economic theory might suggest that the prudent strategy to adopt would be to close down the operation and reopen when the market conditions improve. In a world of certainty or when costs of taking this action are zero, this would be a valid strategy. However, because of fear of competitors taking up a line's market share if the shipping company exits, even temporarily, this strategy cannot be valued simply in terms of shut-down and start-up costs. A further consideration is the fact that standard capital budgeting techniques, such as Net Present Value (NPV), cannot incorporate the flexibility to respond to new information and strategic responses explicitly into their investment analysis. This paper will demonstrate the use of Real Option Analysis (ROA) to provide guidelines for decisions about closing operations in adverse market conditions.     

Investment strategies in market uncertainty

The nature of the global economy is one of dynamic change. Shipping is a service industry with its demand related to changes in international trade levels and patterns. As a consequence shipping is subject to sometimes unpredictable swings in demand so that the operator is required to make strategic planning decisions while navigating through boom or bust environments. While boom economies generate rising freight rates which are welcomed and encourage investment, ship operators may also have to face falling freight demand and declining freight rates that may have significant impact on profitability, often falling to uneconomic levels for extended periods. In such a period of uncertainty and declining profitability management will make operational decisions to reduce costs. However, shipping lines operate in a market environment so any decisions made to rationalize the trade may have significant long-term competitive implications. For example, traditional micro economic theory might suggest that the prudent strategy to adopt would be to close down the operation and reopen when the market conditions improve. In a world of certainty or when costs of taking this action are zero, this would be a valid strategy. However, because of fear of competitors taking up a line's market share if the shipping company exits, even temporarily, this strategy cannot be valued simply in terms of shut-down and start-up costs. A further consideration is the fact that standard capital budgeting techniques, such as Net Present Value (NPV), cannot incorporate the flexibility to respond to new information and strategic responses explicitly into their investment analysis. This paper will demonstrate the use of Real Option Analysis (ROA) to provide guidelines for decisions about closing operations in adverse market conditions.     

海上风电安装船的发展趋势研究

随着海上风力发电产业的迅速发展,风电安装船需求越来越大,并且风电安装船是高附加值工程船,因此这一市场的吸引力将越来越受到造船界重视,竞争将越来越激烈,但海上风电场施工成本高、海上作业时间长及工期长等问题的存在延缓了海力发电产业的发展。因此,本文将着重对海上风电结构物施工、安装过程的单一海工设备发展进行浅析,为探索深水化、大型化、专业化、集成化的海上风电安装船来完成深海域基础施工及风机安装问题提供设计参考。     

Multimodal route choice in maritime transportation: the case of Korean auto-parts exporters

Global offshoring has increased the need for transport of half-finished goods and components, along with finished goods. The auto-parts industry in Korea has also entered the global market as Korean car manufacturers have started to build overseas factories. Maintaining cost competitiveness by minimising total logistics costs will thus be a critical strategy for the industry. This research compares the total annual costs of four feasible transport routes from Korea to the US using the inventory-theoretic model, which encompasses direct transport costs, in-transit carrying costs, and warehouse inventory costs. We apply this model to real transport data collected from a Korean auto-parts company. A static analysis shows that inventory costs can play a decisive role in altering the cost competitiveness of different routes. In addition, sensitivity and scenario analyses with changes in variables and the market situations reveal that the cost structure of each route plays an important role in determining their relative cost competitiveness in varying market conditions.     

从国际海运企业购并效益谈对我国的启示

购并是企业实施外部发展战略的常规策略，在进入和退出壁垒均较高的国际海运业，购并成为形成国际性经营联合体及市场领导企业的重要途径。通过购并，国际海运市场的集中度越来越高，呈现出多寡头垄断的市场格局。购并带给海运企业的最大效益是实现了规模经济，同时还提高了购并企业的融资能力，为企业提供了获取先进技术和优秀人才的渠道，并使企业可以享受税收上的优惠。国际海运业的购并历程为正处于高速发展阶段的国内海运业提供了良好的经验借鉴。     

Financial and environmental impacts of hypothetical Finnish dry port structure

One main theme of European Union’s in transport policy statements has been the increased role of railways in the reducing environmental impacts and costs of transport activity. One option to increase the modal share of rail transport is to utilize the dry port concept, particularly applicable to general cargo. At the Port of Gothenburg (Sweden) use of this concept in combination with rail transport has led to a reduction of CO₂ emissions, and lower transport energy costs. The main objective and motivation of this research work are to examine through analytical models, how this same dry port concept could be implemented in the Finnish transportation network, with estimates of the benefits being gained.The research method of this study is macro gravitational models of distribution. Main input data for the models are distances and population in the area. The approach aims to research, how relative transport costs behave by increasing the number of dry port distribution locations. For the actual computation work the authors apply linear integer programming. Based on the results, the authors argue that relative transport costs can decrease considerably by increasing the number of dry ports, up to the level of six locations. This is considerably less than what is the current situation in Sweden. The found solution also differs from Sweden as the fragmented Finnish seaport system enables using numerous seaports instead of one, which further decreases inland transportation distances and volumes considerably. At the same time forthcoming sulphur emission reduction regulation (for sea transports) might impact the transportation network structure by decreasing sea transport and the number of seaports used. This might lead to a further increase in land-based hinterland transport.     

关于进军海工装备市场的思考与对策

通过对世界和我国的海工装备市场竞争态势的分析,提出对我国造船企业进军海工装备市场的几点思考:市场进入的门槛高,决策要谨慎;船舶制造企业要与油气用户业主合作联手;科研、创新开发要更多地瞄准深海技术;海上应急救援装备要加大投入的力度;人才队伍建设是进军海工装备市场的关键。我国各海工企业在向海工市场进军的过程中必须保持清醒的头脑,做到有序发展,避免一哄而上、盲目进军。     

Stochastic modeling of long term wave induced responses of ship structures

This paper presents a procedure for evaluating the long term response distribution in ship structures. A specified travel route through given geographical areas during the lifetime of the ship is defined. The individual scatter diagrams, describing the relative occurrence of different sea states for the geographical areas, are weighted with respect to the relative time occupancy of the ship. A two-dimensional analytical distribution is fitted to the weighted scatter diagram over the lifetime.

Frequency response functions for all the sectorial forces are calculated for different ship speeds, heading angles and loading conditions, and fitted to a bi-cubic spline. The wave spectrum is defined by applying a gamma spectrum. The response spectrum is found using a linear frequency domain analysis. From the response spectrum, the peak distribution of the response in each short term period, conditioned on the loading condition, the ship speed and the wave heading direction is computed. The peak distribution over the lifetime is estimated by unconditioning with respect to sea states, maneuvering and loading condition.     

The external cost of speed at sea: An analysis based on selected short sea shipping routes

According to the mid-term review of the EU White Paper on Transport, Short Sea Shipping (SSS) is expected to grow at a rate of 59% (metric tonnes) between 2000 and 2020. If we consider that the overall expected increase in both freight exchanges and volume is 50%, sea transport is one of the most feasible alternatives to reduce traffic congestion on European roads. Maritime transportation may compete with road transport as far as certain traffics are concerned, but only when assuming external costs. This paper analyzes several intermodal transport chains involving a sea leg by comparing the effect of pollutant emissions from different ship types and road transport in terms of potential external cost savings. The translation of these emissions into environmental costs shows, for certain conditions, savings in the case of sea transport that would justify the use of an environmental bonus to promote the sea option.     

海事卫星船站数据传输信道选择的优化控制

从理论上对通过国际海事卫星系统实现船舶远距离海域数据传输中,信道选择的优化问题进行探讨,进而为远洋船舶数据传输和监控系统提供一个适合于任何Inmarsat船站配置的信道选择优化控制流程。首先,对目前船舶上安装的各类Inmarsat船站的数据信道、传输速率及费率进行了分析;然后,综合传输效率和经济效益两方面因素,提出了信道选择优化原则,并通过比较分析,结合我国网络现状,给出了F船站ISDN和MPDS信道选择的数据量临界点;最后,在分析的基础上给出了适用于计算机控制的船端信道选择优化控制流程。对通过海事卫星船站实施数据传输实现通信费用与效率的最佳结合,具有很好的应用价值。     

Evaluating the long term impacts of transport policy: The case of passenger rail privatisation

Britain's national rail system was ‘privatised’ as a result of the 1993 Railways Act, with most of the organisational and ownership changes implemented by 1997. This paper examines the long term impacts of these changes. A key issue when examining long term changes is that of the counterfactual – what would have happened if the changes had not occurred? A simple econometric model of the demand for passenger rail services was developed and used in conjunction with extrapolative methods for key variables such as fares and train km to determine demand-side counterfactuals. Extrapolative methods were also used to determine counterfactual infrastructure and train operation costs. Although our results are sensitive to the assumptions we have made concerning the counterfactual they suggest a number of impacts. Since privatisation, rail demand has grown strongly but our analysis indicates that transitional disruptions suppressed demand by around 9% over a prolonged period (1992/3 to 2005/6), whilst the Hatfield accident reduced demand by about 5%, albeit over a shorter period (2000/1 to 2006/7). A welfare analysis suggests that although consumers seem to have gained as a result of privatisation, for most years this has been offset by increases in costs. An exception is provided by the two years immediately before the Hatfield accident. Overall the loss in welfare since the reforms were introduced far exceeds the net receipts from the sale of rail businesses. Thus although the reforms have had advantages in terms of lower fares and better service levels than otherwise would have been the case, this appears to have been offset by increased infrastructure and train operations costs. The source of these high costs remains an area of speculation but appear to be related to aspects of both market and regulatory failure.     

Cost Scenarios for Coastal Water Pollution in a Small Island Nation: A Case Study from the Cook Islands

This article presents scenarios of watershed pollution costs in Rarotonga, the largest of the Cook Islands in the South Pacific. The valuation method applied here estimates the market costs that would be avoided in the absence of watershed pollution. The study finds gross annual watershed pollution costs in Rarotonga between NZ$3.2 to NZ$17.7, with a best estimate of NZ$7.4, million. The best estimate results in household costs of NZ$2,900 per year and equates to 3.12% of gross domestic product. A wide error margin is placed around these estimates due to uncertain and incomplete datasets, a common situation for small island nations. They are presented as “cost scenarios” rather than definitive results. The article explores the practical, theoretical, and policy issues surrounding the valuation of water resources in the context of small island nations. It is argued that rough estimates of opportunity costs, limited to market goods and services, can supply governments with sufficient information to assess the relative importance of watershed pollution.     

An analysis of efficiency of the bulk shipping markets

This article discusses the market efficiency of bulk shipping fleets in both the short and long term perspectives. In the short term it demonstrates that shipowners are profit maximizers and that freight rates are equal to marginal cost, that evidencing allocative efficiency of resources. It assumes that the market is differentiated but the intra-marginal substitution takes place. While it is shown that the marginal cost functions of individual vessels, which are aggregated to provide the market supply schedule, are only unique for a specific voyage, provided the general pattern of trade remains more or less constant the supply function is likely to be relatively insensitive to individual changes in ships' MCs. In the long term it is argued that the market is far less efficient with many factors combining to prevent accurate matching of supply and demand for any but for a very short period of time. In recent years supply has exceeded demand by a considerable amount and it is concluded that finance for ships should be provided primarily from shipowners' accumulated reserves and that loan capital should finance a much smaller proportion of the costs of independent tonnage.     

400英尺自升式钻井平台目标海域和目标用户研究

自升式钻井平台属于海上移动式平台,是浅海大陆架海域油气资源勘探开发事业的主力装备。结合400英尺自升式钻井平台的性能特点,通过分析钻井平台市场的现状与趋势,论述全球蕴涵油气资源海域的地质特性及勘探远景,归纳国内外钻井平台用户特征及市场需求,总结出最适合该型平台工作的目标海域,明确该型平台最适合的目标用户,使400英尺自升式钻井平台的研发更具市场针对性。     

Estimating short-run costs of a barge company

By extending a methodology developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers, firm-specific short-run costs of a barge company are estimated in this paper. The estimated costs include average costs, marginal costs, and cost elasticities. These estimates led to a breakeven analysis and an analysis of financial conditions of the barge industry in general. Findings include that the breakeven ton-mile rates range from 0. 52 to 0.72 cents for a full-capacity operation and that the costs of barge services are highly inelastic. A questionnaire survey of 256 barge and towing companies has also been shown to corroborate the findings of this paper.