西北太平洋热带气旋活动特征

为掌握近年来西北太平洋热带气旋的活动规律,利用2006—2015年热带气旋资料,对西北太平洋热带气旋活动特征进行统计分析,结果表明:西北太平洋热带气旋主要发生在5°N～20°N的纬度带内,南海中部海面、菲律宾以东海面和关岛附近海面是主要发生源地;平均每年发生热带风暴(Tropical Strom,TS)等级以上的热带气旋23.5个,较常年平均偏少;热带气旋移动路径以西行、西北行和转向路径为主,占所有路径出现频数的80%以上,其中转向路径频数最多;热带气旋的移速与纬度关系密切,在东风带中移速较慢,进入西风带中移速加快;平均每年约有8个热带气旋在我国登陆,少于常年平均;热带气旋10级和7级以上大风圈半径平均值分别约为100 n mile和200 n mile;热带气旋最大波高与其强度关系密切,中心气压低于950 hPa的强热带气旋,平均最大波高在8 m以上,出现狂浪和狂涛的概率在95%以上。     

东中国海波浪分布特征研究

以美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)再分析气象资料作为驱动风场条件,运用第三代海浪模式WAM的第四版本(WAMC4)在西北太平洋海域建立二级嵌套波浪模型,利用连云港、冷家沙现场观测波浪资料对模型进行了验证,检验了该模型在东中国海波浪研究中的适用性针对东中国海进行了连续60年(1950—2909)的波浪后报模拟,在此基础上开展了东中国海波浪时空分布特征研究.结果表明:四季的平均有效波高等值线与岸线形状基本保持一致,且由南向北逐渐递减;有效波高分布的季节差异显著,冬季浪高最大,其次为秋季,春季、夏季最小。通过对比分析平均波浪要素和5%累积频率波浪要素的定量关系发现,在渤海范围内,5%累积频率有效波高与平均有效波高之比约为2.75,黄海与东海大部该比值则分别约为2.50和2.35,而5%累积频率平均周期与平均周期的比值在整个东中国海范围内约为1.45。     

东中国海波浪分布特征研究*

以美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)再分析气象资料作为驱动风场条件,运用第三代海浪模式WAM的第四版本(WAMC4)在西北太平洋海域建立二级嵌套波浪模型,利用连云港、冷家沙现场观测波浪资料对模型进行了验证,检验了该模型在东中国海波浪研究中的适用性.针对东中国海进行了连续60年(1950-2009)的波浪后报模拟,在此基础上开展了东中国海波浪时空分布特征研究.结果表明:四季的平均有效波高等值线与岸线形状基本保持一致,且由南向北逐渐递减;有效波高分布的季节差异显著,冬季浪高最大,其次为秋季,春季、夏季最小.通过对比分析平均波浪要素和5％累积频率波浪要素的定量关系发现,在渤海范围内,5％累积频率有效波高与平均有效波高之比约为2.75,黄海与东海大部该比值则分别约为2.50和2.35,而5％累积频率平均周期与平均周期的比值在整个东中国海范围内约为1.45.     

最大风速半径对台风浪计算效果的比较研究

依据联合台风警报中心(JTWC)发布的2001~2015年西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集,分析给出西北太平洋热带气旋最大风速半径之于地理纬度和中心低压的参数化公式。采用5种最大风速半径公式计算最大风速半径,并基于Myers气压场模型和第三代海浪模型SWAN,对发生于东中国海的5场台风浪个例过程进行数值模拟研究,将模拟结果与实测资料进行对比分析。结果表明:台风浪大浪区持续时间和分布的范围与最大风速半径正相关;采用文章拟合公式的台风浪数值模拟结果较实测值的线性回归斜率、平均偏差和最大值偏差均较小,文章拟合公式关于个例台风浪的计算效果较好。     

茂名港区工程海域波浪特性分析

通过对茂名附近海域不同测波站短期的波浪资料进行统计分析,结果表明:该海域常浪向为ESE—SE向,强浪向为E—S向,大浪主要为台风浪;波浪年平均有效波高不超过1.5 m,年平均波周期在6 s以下,存在平均周期8 s以上的波浪。     

半潜平台波浪载荷不确定性及结构疲劳可靠性研究

在海洋平台结构疲劳强度分析的不确定因素中波浪载荷的不确定性对其影响较大,为了评估疲劳载荷计算过程中波浪载荷的不确定性文章建立了海浪谱型、波高、波浪载荷传递函数、平均跨零周期、海况发生概率和浪向等引起的波浪载荷不确定性的评估方法和公式.同时为了评估波浪载荷传递函数的不确定性进行了波浪载荷模型试验.重点对西北太平洋和中国南海的海况进行了分析计算,定量统计回归出西北太平洋的有义波高和平均跨零周期修正公式,以及中国南海不同季节海况和浪向分布规律对半潜平台波浪载荷和疲劳寿命的影响因子.最后根据波浪载荷不确定性以及结构疲劳分析中的其他不确定因素计算分析了半潜平台典型结构的疲劳可靠度.     

马迹山海域风和波浪特征分析

针对马迹山海域风和波浪特征,利用连续一整年的风和波浪资料进行数学统计相关分析,得到马迹山海域风和波浪要素分布特征。结果表明,马迹山海域波浪类型为以风浪为主的混合浪;观测期间最大波高为4.59 m,平均波高在0.20～0.42 m;最大波周期为9.50 s,平均波周期在2.66～3.01 s;马迹山海域全年常风向为NNW向,春、夏季常风向分别为S、SSW向,秋、冬季常风向均为NNW向,马迹山海域全年强风向为NNW向;春、夏季波高与风速的相关性一般,秋、冬季两者的线性关系明显。     

不同时间间隔的波浪观测数据对其统计结果的影响

采用不同的波浪观测方法所获得的波浪数据的时间间隔不一致,其数据的准确性须进行分析。基于大埕湾逐时周年波浪观测数据,截取不同时间间隔的波浪数据,采用统计和相关分析法,分析不同波浪数据序列的波况、大浪波高以及周期的相关关系。结果表明,不同时间间隔的波浪资料的波况差异较小,大浪波高差异在11. 4%以内,相关性较好;大浪周期差异在78. 1%以内,相关性较差。时间间隔较长的波高可由本文公式计算得出较精确的数据,在有限资料的情况下为工程应用提供更可靠的波高值。     

广西北海近岸海域波浪的分布特征*

通过对广西北海近岸测站1 a实测波浪资料,分析该海域的波浪特征,得出:海域不分方向H1/10年平均值为0.6 m,常浪向为WSW向,出现的频率为15.48%,强浪向为ESE向,观测期间最大波高出现在201409号“威马逊”台风期间,Hmax最大值为8.23 m,对应H1/10值为6.26 m;波高与周期的联合分布基本呈类似斜三角形分布。运用最小二乘法进行回归分析,建立了该海域各特征波高与平均波高的相关关系。     

智利Guayacan港概况及进港作业

1Guayacan港概况 ·地理位置：Guayacan港位于29°58′S,71°22′W,背靠老港口城市Coquimbo,相距1n mile,在一个西北面向太平洋的布袋形天然海湾内。湾口在Punta Herrakura灯塔和Punta Miedo灯塔之间,宽度0．4n mile,两岸陡峭,两灯塔在10n mile外可用雷达测得,进出港保持在中线上航行即可。     

Generation of cyclonic eddies in the Eastern Gotland Basin of the Baltic Sea following dense water inflows: numerical experiments

A sigma (σ)-coordinate ocean model by Blumberg and Mellor (POM) is applied to study the formation processes of mesoscale cyclones observed in the Eastern Gotland Basin following the dense water inflows. The initial conditions simulate a situation when the Arkona and Bornholm basins and partially the Slupsk Furrow are already filled with the inflow water of the North Sea origin, while the Eastern Gotland and Gdansk basins still contain the old water of pre-inflow stratification. Model runs with constant and time-dependent winds, changing the buoyancy forcing, grid geometry and bottom topography display the following. Entering the Eastern Gotland Basin from the Slupsk Furrow, the bottom intrusion of saline inflow water splits in two: one goes northeast towards the Gotland Deep, and second moves southeast towards the Gulf of Gdansk. An intensive mesoscale cyclonic eddy carrying the inflow water is generated just east of the Slupsk Furrow with the inflow pulse. A number of smaller cyclones with boluses of the inflow water are formed in the permanent halocline along the saline intrusion pathway to the Gotland Deep. Following Spall and Price [J. Phys. Oceanogr. 28 (1998) 1598], the cyclones are suggested to form by the adjustment of the high potential vorticity inflow water column to a low potential vorticity environment.     

Climate–ocean variability and Pacific hake: A geostatistical modeling approach

Climate forcing of the California Current has been known to impact the distribution and abundance of a number of local fish populations, but the mechanisms involved remain poorly understood. Climate metrics such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are usually used to represent climate processes and direct links are made between climate forcing and production variability. This involves aggregation of impacts across large spatial scales and range of species. However, fluctuations in productivity are often the result of changes in physical habitat. In order to fully understand the relationship between climate and productivity, habitat changes should be addressed. In this study we use a geostatistical approach to quantify adult Pacific hake habitat during different climate regimes. Several authors have suggested that the distribution and intensity of the sub-surface poleward flow (the undercurrent) plays a key role in defining adult hake habitat along the west coast of North America. Here we build a model designed to predict hake habitat distribution in space based on sub-surface poleward flow distribution and bottom depth. Our results show that hake habitat expands in 1998 El Niño year compared to 1995. Given the important predatory role that hake plays in the CC, the amount and distribution of adult hake habitat has large implications for the Pacific Northwest food web and could thus serve as an ecosystem indicator representing important physical–biological interactions. Spatially based ecosystem indicators such as the one we develop here address two important yet neglected areas in the ‘Ecosystem Indicators debate’: the importance of developing metrics explicitly representing spatial and environmental processes shaping ecosystem structure. Without these, our power to fully describe ecosystems will be limited.     

2010年西北太平洋热带气旋活动特征分析

为使船舶驾驶人员对西北太平洋海域热带气旋的生成和活动规律有所了解,利用2010年中国、日本发布的该海域热带气旋实况资料和气候资料进行统计和分析.分析结果表明2010年该海域热带气旋具有个数少,源地集中,位置偏西;登陆个数少,登陆比例大;登陆时间集中,登陆位置偏南等特点.2010年西北太平洋副热带高压异常强大、西伸脊点异...     

The Potential of a Legislative Approach to Managing Beach Use: The Case of Beach Bylaws in the Republic of Ireland

This article examines the use of inland mined sand and offshore dredged sand for beach nourishment projects in North Carolina, focusing on the question of whether inland mined sand is economically preferential for hot‐spot erosion control. Excavation, processing, and transport costs are presented, and cost efficiencies of hypothetical beach nourishment projects are compared. Cost analyses indicate that inland mined sand is economical for small projects (10,000–50,000 cubic yards), given that a clean sand source can be located within 15 miles of the nourishment site. The two factors primarily influencing per cubic yard costs of inland sand are overland transportation expenses and processing costs. The use of dredged offshore sand is less expensive for large projects (> 100,000 cubic yards) due to the economies of scale affecting dredge mobilization. Large beach nourishment projects in North Carolina will most likely continue to utilize offshore dredged sand.     

CO2 air–sea disequilibrium and preformed alkalinity in the Pacific and Indian oceans calculated from subsurface layer data

This work estimates new regionalized empirical parameterizations for preformed alkalinity (A_T^o) and the CO₂ air–sea disequilibrium (?C_dis). Both are key terms for the computation of anthropogenic CO₂ in the back-calculation methods. Data from the subsurface layer (75–180 m depth range) covering an area from North to South and from 19°E to 67.5°W (Pacific and Indian oceans) were taken from GLODAP (The Global Ocean Data Analysis Project) database. The subsurface layer is proved as a reliable reference for representing the main characteristics of the different water masses of the oceans. Besides, handing data from the two ocean basins altogether makes the new parameterizations of A_T^o and ?C_dis to be more globally consistent. Nevertheless, each ocean basin, at least in some regions, has different oceanographic characteristics based on its proper dynamical processes and water masses formation. In order to maintain each ocean basin ‘identity’ the whole domain was divided in six different regions (two of them sharing waters from Pacific and Indian oceans) and parameterizations in each region for both terms were obtained. Previously, data were transformed into a grid of 4°lat. × 5°lon. and the results obtained from the parameterizations were visualized and compare with pCO₂ climatologies. From the comparisons with previous ?C_dis estimations good results are obtained showing the reliability and robustness of the new regionalized empiric parameterizations.     

Cyclone Mitigation Perspectives in the Islands of Bangladesh: A Case of Sandwip and Hatia Islands

Most coastal areas of the world are now at risk from natural hazards such as cyclones, storm surges, beach erosions, tsunamis, sea level rises, and so on, resulting from geological and meteorological disturbances. In Bangladesh, during premonsoon and post-monsoon periods cyclone and tidal surges are considered the most catastrophic phenomena in coastal regions, including islands. Most coastal island residents of Bangladesh have been facing cyclones for centuries. The present study establishes a comparison between two neighboring islands, Sandwip and Hatia, of the Meghna estuary with respect to disaster reaction and management. Based on a questionnaire survey and observations, the study shows that the inhabitants of Hatia are more aware of and confident in disaster management than the inhabitants of Sandwip. Residents of both islands in the Meghna estuary have established trust in the warning signals following the heavy devastation of great cyclones of 1970, 1985, 1991, and 1997. The residents of Hatia have been facing cyclones and tidal surges more frequently than the residents of Sandwip due to the island's geographical location. In addition, shelter management and relief management are better developed in Hatia than Sandwip.     

Two parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling

In this paper,the two parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling are further developed.The analytical expressions of tangential and radial velocity distribution are derived from the governing momentum equations,based on the general symmetric pressure distribution proposed by Holland and Fujita.On the basis of the data of several tropical cyclones that occurred in East China Ocean,the shape parameter in pressure model is estimated.Finally,the Fred cyclone(typhoon 199417)is calculated,and comparisons of measured and calculated air pressures and wind speed are presented.     

Environmental factors which affect growth of Japanese common squid, Todarodes pacificus, analyzed by a bioenergetics model coupled with a lower trophic ecosystem model

Bioenergetics model is applied to Japanese common squid, Todarodes pacificus. The temporal change of wet weight of common squid, which migrates in the Sea of Japan, is simulated. The time dependent horizontal distribution of prey is calculated a priori by 3-D coupled physical–biological model. The biological model NEMURO (North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography) is used to simulate the lower-trophic ecosystem including three kinds of zooplankton biomass two of which is used as prey of common squid. A bioenergetics model reproduced appropriate growth curve of common squid, migrating in the North Pacific and the Sea of Japan. The results show that the wet weight of common squid in the northern Sea of Japan is heavier than that migrating in the central Sea of Japan, because prey density of the northern Sea of Japan is higher than that of the central Sea of Japan. We also investigate the wet weight anomaly for a global warming scenario. In this case, wet weight of common squid decreases because water temperature exceeds the optimum temperature for common squid. This result indicates that migration route and spawning area of common squid might change with global warming.     

“上海——石垣——台湾”航线上船舶避离热带气旋的航线选择

从宏观上定性地论述了航行于“上海——石垣——台湾”航线上的船舶,在运用“改变航线”法避离热带气旋时,如何根据不同移动类型的热带气旋选择最优化的避离航线。     

中国海与西北太平洋波浪长期统计的导算方法

为了满足船舶与海洋工程对波侯数据的需要，本文回顾了以往出版的几种图集资料并分析了其不足之处，着重介绍了当前国际上较新的英国波峰综合模式（NMIMET）和美国海军风浪后报模式（SOWM）及两者的结果图集。为获得中国海与西北太平洋海域更可靠的数据，在对日本气象厅的器测浮标站长期资料的统计结果与相应的船舶报资料按各种方法处理的结果比较基础上，进一步改进了NMIMET模式。这主要是在波高与周期联合概率分布导算方法上，采用一种新的更灵活的联合分布模式以代替原来所用的由Ochi建议的二维对数正态模式；同时对于在模式中需要确定的有关周期的参数，根据新的资料和计算结果对原用的回归公式作出了改进。用改进后的模式导算得到的波高、周期分布与器测浮标站结果更为接近。