Port or shipping project appraisal under risk .

Investments in ports and shipping today are subject to uncertainty in demand, costs, prices, and technology requirements. As a result, port and shipping project appraisal must consider the risk of project decisions on outcome. The basic concepts of project appraisal under risk are discussed in this paper, and the effects of uncertainties on measures of project performance such as net present value or internal rate of return are reviewed. Applications of the approach advocated are presented in a follow-up paper.     

Evaluation of risk attitude in the shipping freight market under uncertainty

ABSTRACT

The main purpose of this study is to examine how market participants take risks, in other words, what their risk attitude/preference is, and how their risk attitude could be related to the shipping freight and other markets. To address them, we calibrated the risk attitude of participants in shipping freight markets from 2007 to 2013, and provided an example of the application of risk attitude. For market participants, risk attitude/preference has an important role in understanding shipping freight markets and managing risks under uncertainty. However, risk attitude is not directly observable. To achieve this, we applied a framework that consists of structural model and calibration with market data. We interpreted risk attitude and confirmed that a structural break occurred around 2008 for the calibrated risk attitude parameter. The average risk attitude of market participants tended to be more risk-averse after 2010. We conducted an additional analysis to provide an example of the application of calibrated risk attitude, using structural equation modeling to calculate a latent variable that reflected other commodity markets. We compared the risk attitude parameter and the latent variable, and clarified the relationship between the risk attitude parameter and commodity markets.     

US shipping policy under conditions of a new world economic and political environment

The maritime policy of the US has evolved over more than 100 years from the support of US shipping through mail and fleet auxiliary contracts before the turn of the century, to the present array of direct and indirect Government aids and regulations based on the assumption that a strong maritime industry composed of both US-flag shipping and US-shipbuilding capacity is essential for the economic well-being and defence of the country. Notwithstanding massive direct and indirect aid to the US merchant marine, amounting to well over a billion dollars a year in recent years, US shipping and shipbuilding has declined dramatically and now comprises less than 3% of world shipping. Only 2.8% of US foreign trade by volume and 6% by value is today carried in US flag ships. Government aids constitute well over 33% of total revenues of US-flag shipping.

The traditional argument for US Government support has been the need for cost parity to permit US-flag shipping to compete effectively in international trade against foreign shipping serving the same routes with presumably lower operating costs. This argument is difficult to sustain today, as vessel costs of many other industrialized nations are now about equal to those of US-flag ships.

In 1970 the US enacted a new, vastly more liberal, maritime act for the support of the US maritime industry. Notwithstanding its even more liberal terms and elimination of the strict cost-parity interpretation, the US maritime industry continues its decline. The recent bankruptcy of two old, established subsidized shipping companies has caused tremors in the industry, yet no new ideas, policies, or plans seem to be forthcoming. It is the objective of this paper to study the development and effects of various historic US Government policies relating to the support of the US maritime industry, and evaluate the positions taken by proponents or opponents of the maritime policy leading to the policy development.

The decision processes are studied by evaluating literature on the evolution of Congressional, administration, industry, and labour interest and positions on the issue of Government aid to the maritime industry. The impact and effectiveness of various elements of past and present US maritime policy is evaluated in relation to the stated objectives. The alternatives to these policies are reviewed in the light of the changing US position in international trade, military strategy, and political objectives. In addition the effectiveness of the present and alternative policies is evaluated as it is and will be affected by changing technology in use, composition of ownership, and operations of US-flag shipping and shipbuilding.     

跨国航运企业财务风险管理

借鉴国内外财务风险管理理论与实践中一些比较成熟的方法,结合我国航运企业财务风险管理的实际情况,对我国跨国航运企业财务风险管理中的资金筹集风险、资金管理风险等相关问题进行研究,并对跨国航运企业财务风险管理的内部环境建设提出建议。     

The utility analysis of risk attitudes in shipping

Many methodologies have been developed in order to optimize business decision making. By definition, optimization is only possible when an objective, or set of objectives, has been specified. However, the presence of risk obscures the potential payoffs of a particular decision. How different decision makers react to this phenomenon is reflected in the different objectives which they adopt. One corollary of this diversity of objectives is that any generally applicable optimization method must explicitly take into account the influence of risk attitude on decision choice. Because of the magnitude of the risks involved, virtually nowhere is this requirement more relevant than in relation to shipping decisions. This paper presents and justifies a method for assessing and measuring attitudes towards market risk. The method is applied to a sample of shipowners in Britain, Norway, Hong Kong and Greece and the risk profiles that are developed have some surprising, and important, implications for decision making in shipping.     

FFA在航运市场风险管理中的应用

随着国际干散货贸易的繁荣和运价波动性的加大,在过去几年里FFA市场也得到较大发展。分析国际干散货航运市场的不确定性,介绍远期运费协议(FFA)的含义及其在国际干散货航运市场中的发展情况,探讨FFA风险管理的作用,最后,面对航运市场较大的波动性,提出中国船东和租家必须学会利用FFA这一新的工具进行风险管理的建议。     

关于加强困难航运企业思想政治工作的几点思考

通过对困难航运企业思想政治工作现状进行分析,提出相关对策.     

Norwegian shipping: measuring foreign exchange risk

The primary aim here is an attempt to measure the impact of foreign exchange movements on the operating results of the shipping industry. The issue arises from the imposition of a volatile foreign exchange market on a freight market structure which fixes revenues in US dollars. Despite attempts to shift costs into dollars, some other currency liabilities still remain, making exposure to exchange rate fluctuations inevitable. The contemporary experience of the Norwegian industry is used to analyse the cost structure in terms of currency denomination, the volatility in the real Kroner/US dollar exchange rate, and the sensitivity of the operating results to these fluctuations. This serves to highlight the commercial vulnerability of shipping companies. Exposure can be seen in a positive or negative light depending on the direction of movement in the exchange rate. Operating profits can rise and fall dramatically simply because of these exchange rate movements.     

Perceptions of foreign exchange rate risk in the shipping industry

This is an analysis of the impact of exchange rate risk on the performance of major shipping companies from two important maritime nations, Japan and Norway. For the shipping industry, such risk is exacerbated by freight rates fixed in US dollars which must then be converted into numerous other currencies. The appreciation of the Yen against the US dollar has been such that Japanese companies have been impelled to insulate themselves from exchange rate movements by natural hedging. For Norway, where fluctuations of the Krone against the US dollar have been less dramatic, exposure has been maintained, allowing an element of speculation. In both cases the market indicates that exchange rate risk is a significant factor in the determination of corporate performance.     

航运服务集群竞争力评价指标

目前产业集群理论多运用于制造业,用来研究服务业的论著不多。在产业集群视角下对航运服务业竞争力进行评价,丰富现有的产业集群理论,并为航运服务业发展提供理论指导。     

水运设计企业应走建设工程项目管理和工程总承包之路

介绍目前国内水运设计企业开展建设工程项目管理和工程总承包的现状及存在问题,分析开展该领域业务的优势,提出我国加快发展水运设计企业建设工程项目管理和工程总承包业务需采取的措施。     

基于FSA的航运公司安全风险评估

ISM规则2010年修正案对ISM规则进行了修正,其中一个重要的修正内容是要求公司在采取措施前对各类风险进行评估。结合在海运界已广泛运用的综合安全评估(简称FSA)方法来探讨航运公司安全风险评估的方法和途径。     

The relative efficiency and financial risk assessment of shipping companies

Since shipping companies are highly competitive, we ask whether financial risk assessment tools impact company performance and, therefore competitiveness and efficiency. Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) is used in the evaluation. Based on distinct features of the risk-return relationship, three cargo segments in the shipping industry are studied—dry bulk, liquid bulk, and containerized cargo. The influence of the risk assessment indicators on market and operational efficiency is subsequently determined using a panel regression to determine whether different asset allocation and risk management techniques improve the performance of shipping companies. In this analysis, 79 international shipping companies listed in Bloomberg Shipping Indices are included in the data collected from Thomson One for the period of 2001–2010. Efficiency estimation from the SFA shows that containerized cargo firms have better performance in both market and operating efficiencies. Operating efficiency performance is achieved by lowering liquidity. Market efficiency is improved by well-managed leverage level.     

ANFIS model for assessing near-miss risk during tanker shipping voyages

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was applied to predict the risk of near-miss incidents during tanker shipping voyages. Firstly, near-miss incidents recorded by a global tanker shipping management company were analysed. Four variables—type of operation, vessel’s location, on-board position, and harm potential were selected to train and predict the risk levels of near-miss incidents. The selected variables were found to be correlated with the observed frequency at three risk levels, namely low, medium and high. Gravity factor (GF) was calculated using the frequency of the categories in each variable and their associated risk levels. The calculated GF values and the risk levels of near-miss incidents were used as input values in the ANFIS model. Triangular, Trapezoidal and Gaussian membership functions were used. Subsequently, fuzzy logical theory and artificial neural networks were applied to train the data. Causal factors in terms of direct contributory factors, indirect contributory factors and root contributory factors to the near-miss incidents were analysed. Risk control measures were also proposed to improve safety during tanker shipping.     

远洋运输企业的汇率风险管理

世界经济贸易的发展,带动了航运业的蓬勃发展,目前,中国的船舶拥有量稳居世界前五,已经步入世界航运大国之列。随着中国金融体系的全面开放,以及汇率改革的逐步深入,我国远洋运输企业在迅猛发展的同时,将不得不直面汇率变动所带来的风险,汇率风险已经成为我国远洋运输企业的重要风险因素。     

Arctic tanker risk analysis project

This paper summarizes the interim Phase II results of the Arctic Tanker Risk Analysis Project, which examined the risk of oil shipment by tankers in the Canadian Arctic. The objectives were to identify the hazards most likely to produce an oil spill on the MV Arctic, and to institute measures to reduce that risk. Phase I indicated that a high potential exists for a shipping accident at the terminals, the St. Lawrence River and in the High Arctic. However, environmental sensitivity was shown to be greatest along the coastal zone of the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the St. Lawrence River. Phase II involved further examination of environmental sensitivity and the task of ice navigation. These results resulted in a revised risk profile. Three spill scenarios were then designed to estimate clean-up costs and other economic impacts. A cost effectiveness analysis was conducted which compared spill costs to risk mitigation. As the project enters Phase III, the scope has widened to include all product tankers operating in the Arctic. A new Canadian Standards Association Risk Management Standard Q850 is being implemented with the objective of providing prototype tanker Bridge Risk Management System software.     

Safety in Greek coastal shipping: The role and risk of human factor revisited

The comprehensive analysis presented in this paper investigates the links and comparative assets between human factor and other factors that are important determinants of maritime transport risk. In this outline, the identification of factors, such as age and ship size, that can be statistically linked (i.e. statistical significance) to whether an accident in a passenger vessel can be attributed to human factor or other causes is addressed accordingly. This way, the role of human factor in relation to safety of Greek coastal shipping is revealed and the spotlight is able to focus on the various aspects and points that manifest the importance of human element in the maritime industry. The risk assessment of the transportation with Greek passenger ships is being used in order for the safety level of Greek coastal shipping to be adequately estimated. Moreover, the comparison between the values of risk for accidents caused by human factor and those attributed to other causes is an established way to bring to the fore the unbroken relationship between the human factor and marine accidents’ consequences. The paper is concluded with interesting insights and comments drafted through the aforementioned tasks.     

水利工程项目招标风险分析方法研究

研究从业主角度对水利工程招标风险提出了一种风险分析方法,分析了招标过程中的主要风险因素,运用改进的层次分析法(AHP方法)对风险进行评估,对不同等级风险提出应对方案,并通过风险量的计算估计风险的货币损失值,提高了风险分析的可操作性,使风险的控制更客观科学.     

Designing optimal routes in a liner shipping problem

A real liner shipping problem of deciding optimal weekly routes for a given fleet of ships is considered and a solution method for solving the problem is proposed. First, all feasible routes for each ship are generated together with the cost and the duration for each route. The routes are given as input to an integer programming (IP) problem. By solving the IP problem, routes for each ship are selected such that total transportation costs are minimized and the demand at each port is satisfied. The total duration for the routes that are selected for a given ship must not exceed one week.

The real liner shipping problem is solved together with four randomly generated test problems. The computational results show that proposed solution method is suitable for designing optimal routes in several liner shipping problems.