国际干散货航运市场回顾与展望

自2003年10月份以来,国际干散货航运市场表现十分强劲,但从2005年的BDI指数走势来看,这种高景气度已有明显的见顶迹象,对于国际干散货航运市场能否持续高涨的行情,说法众多不一。首先对国际干散货航运市场进行回顾,并针对与干散货航运市场关系密切的世界经济以及国际干散货航运市场供需两方面进行分析,最后对2006年国际干散货航运市场的发展加以展望。     

2006年国际干散货运输市场走势预测

2005年国际干散货运输市场总体表现为前高后低、中间大幅调整、波动剧烈等特征。对于2006年的市场走势,业界已达成调整下降的共识,但调整的幅度、下降的速度观点不一。通过宏观和微观两个方面分析世界和中国经济的发展、钢铁业的走势、需求与供给、市场面临的风险,综合预测2006年国际干散货运输市场的走势。     

国际干散货航运市场与世界经济的相关性

为掌握世界经济变化给国际干散货航运市场带来的影响,对影响国际干散货航运市场各主要因素和评价指标进行分析,应用灰色关联度分析法,对各指标与世界经济的关联度进行定量分析,得到与世界经济关联度最大的因素,反映整个国际干散货航运市场与世界经济的相关性。     

Assessment of investment decision in the dry bulk shipping market based on real options thinking and the shipping cycle perspective

As the dry bulk shipping market seems to have been stuck in a trough period for a long time, investors need to pay more attention to their investment strategies to survive during this period. This study aimed to find a suitable model to assess dry bulk ship investment decisions in the tough and peak periods based on real options theories. Two options, involving an abandonment option and a deferrable option, were used to define investors’ responses to the uncertainty in investment processes such as stopping or selling vessels. The option valuation was solved by using a binomial valuation model, due to data limitations. In accordance with shipping cycle theories, different volatility parameters for the tough and peak periods were calculated using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The application of the real options model to a case study involving secondhand ship trading indicated its viability. According to the results of the case study, the new model has advantages over the traditional net present value (NPV) method in uncertain investment environments. Thus, the results demonstrate that the real options model is a more suitable method for use in the current dry bulk shipping market.     

2010年干散货市场回顾与2011年展望

2010年中国针对钢铁业实施了最严厉的宏观政策调控,干散货运力交付规模创下历史纪录,国际干散货市场运行规律发生较大改变,呈现出与以往截然不同的多变性和复杂性,市场波动频率明显加快。从宏观环境、海运需求、运力供应、敏感因素等几个方面预测分析2011年国际干散货运输市场走势。     

国际干散货运输市场2010年回顾与2011年展望

2010年全球经济摆脱金融危机的冲击,逐渐进入缓慢复苏阶段。尽管复苏程度低于预期,但回升势头基本得到维持,并且发展中经济体在经济复苏过程中扮演重要角色。尤其是我国在金融危机过后主动转变经济增长方式,通过扩大内需刺激经济增长,预计全年GDP增长10．5％,带动亚洲乃至全世界的经济复苏。     

中国沿海主要干散货运输市场2010年回顾与2011年展望

2010年,尽管房地产调控措施不断出台,财政及货币政策持续收紧,但是我国经济继续平稳发展,并呈现高速增长势头。城市化进程加快,区域经济振兴等积极因素驱动经济持续向好。基本建设投资规模庞大,基础设施建设所需要的大宗货物需求保持较高水平。     

干散货航运市场的过去和未来

过去鲜为人知的BDI这个词,如今已经成为经济学界耳熟能详的热门词,可见干散货航运市场的影响已超出了航运界本身。去年下半年以来,干散货航运业出现了单边下滑,并成为实体经济中最大的重灾区。不少业内外人士都把BDI的大幅下滑主要归因于金融危机,认为都是“海啸”惹的祸。其实并不尽然。     

Evaluation of risk attitude in the shipping freight market under uncertainty

ABSTRACT

The main purpose of this study is to examine how market participants take risks, in other words, what their risk attitude/preference is, and how their risk attitude could be related to the shipping freight and other markets. To address them, we calibrated the risk attitude of participants in shipping freight markets from 2007 to 2013, and provided an example of the application of risk attitude. For market participants, risk attitude/preference has an important role in understanding shipping freight markets and managing risks under uncertainty. However, risk attitude is not directly observable. To achieve this, we applied a framework that consists of structural model and calibration with market data. We interpreted risk attitude and confirmed that a structural break occurred around 2008 for the calibrated risk attitude parameter. The average risk attitude of market participants tended to be more risk-averse after 2010. We conducted an additional analysis to provide an example of the application of calibrated risk attitude, using structural equation modeling to calculate a latent variable that reflected other commodity markets. We compared the risk attitude parameter and the latent variable, and clarified the relationship between the risk attitude parameter and commodity markets.     

The price-volume relationship in the sale and purchase market for dry bulk vessels

This paper investigates, for the first time, the relationship between prices and trading activity in a market where real assets are traded, i.e. in the sale and purchase market for second-hand dry bulk vessels. Investigation of this issue is of interest since the level of trading activity may contain information about the sentiment and the future direction of the prices in the market. Several important conclusions emerge from this analysis. It is found that price changes are useful in predicting trading volume, which suggests that higher capital gains encourage more transactions in the market. Additionally, it seems that volume has a negative impact on the volatility of price changes. More specifically, in contrast to what is reported for financial markets, we find evidence that, in the market for ships, increases in trading activity lead to a reduction in market volatility. This can be explained by the unique underlying characteristics of the market for ships, including thin trading, which imply that increases in trading activity result in price transparency and stability. These findings indicate that practitioners in the market may use the information contained in the level of trading activity so as to guide their market decisions in the sale and purchase market.     

The relations between dry port characteristics and regional port-hinterland settings: findings for a global sample of dry ports

This paper aims at defining generic characteristics of dry ports by carrying out an analysis using a large sample of dry ports from around the world. The dataset includes details on 107 inland terminals worldwide. All dry ports in the database have been selected from studies in the extant literature before being shortlisted to fit our research scope. Data collected include terminologies used, actors driving the development, terminal throughput, total area, services provided and the relation with the corresponding seaport(s). Using statistical analysis, the paper examines how dry port parameters are influenced by (1) a different terminal set up, like sea-driven and land-driven development, developed and developing system, dry port functions; (2) specifications of the seaport with which the dry port is connected, i.e. seaport traffic, connectivity, utilization, etc. and (3) the transport leg linking dry ports and seaports. The findings could be applied to the planning and development of inland nodes from the perspectives of different stakeholders.     

Cruise port centrality and spatial patterns of cruise shipping in the Asian market

This paper investigates the centrality of cruise ports in the Asian cruise shipping market while proposing the hubs and authorities centrality (HACC) metric as a directional synthesis of the hubs centrality and authorities centrality to explore cyclical and directional features of centrality in the cruise shipping network. With the development of the cruise shipping industry, research has been actively conducted with a particular focus on identifying the characteristics of hub ports. This paper employs social network analysis to investigate the HACC which is originally developed for analyzing the cruise port centrality problem. Empirical study implies that Ho Chi Minh City, Hong Kong, Nagasaki, Penang, Phuket, Port Klang, Shanghai, and Singapore (in alphabetical order) reflects particulars of cruise hub ports. One of the exceptional results of this paper is Ho Chi Minh City, Penang, Phuket, and Port Klang have demonstrated high HACC (refers to hub ports) while limited degree and betweenness centrality. In contrast, Busan and Keelung are not classified as hub ports.     

大型油船和散货船波激振动及其对结构疲劳寿命的影响

通过一艘大型油船和一艘大型散货船在水池中的波激振动模型试验,研究了规则波和不规则波中的船体波激振动现象,利用试验获得的短期海况下的高低频应力数据计算分析了波激振动对实船典型结构疲劳损伤的影响。在此基础上,通过对试验数据的规律性研究,提出了一种快速估算短期海况中船体波激振动特征及其对结构疲劳寿命影响的方法。利用该方法,结合几条典型航线的长期海况统计资料,研究了不同航线上船体波激振动对结构疲劳寿命的影响。研究结果认为:大型油船和散货船在压载状态下存在明显的波激振动现象,不同航线上的波激振动强度及其对结构疲劳寿命的影响差别较大;快速估算方法能够合理地评估船体在波激振动下的结构疲劳损伤,具有一定的工程实用价值。     

A comparative study on the structural integrity of single and double side skin bulk carriers under collision damage

The primary aim of the present study is to investigate the collision resistance and residual strength of single side skin (SSS) and double side skin (DSS) bulk carriers subject to collision damage. The impact dynamics analyses were conducted using ANSYS LS-DYNA for the evaluation resistance forces, energy absorption and penetration depth for various collision scenarios. The struck vessels of Capsize SSS and DSS designs were assumed to be entirely standstill and the striking vessels of an Aframax-type oil tanker with different bulbous bow shapes were modeled as rigid bodies. The findings were compared, where possible, with existing analytical tools. Residual strength calculations on SSS and DSS vessels were computed corresponding to all considered collision damage scenarios. Traditional Smith's method was applied with the average stress — average strain relationships of elements based on derived semi - analytically. The effect of corrosion was also evaluated by Joint Bulker Project (JBP) Rules on the influence of plate and stiffener thickness. The safety of the vessels was determined as a ratio of the ultimate hull girder strength to bending moment in damaged condition. Finally, results and insights derived from the present work are summarized.     

2003年国际干散货运输市场分析与展望

告别了不平凡的2002年,我们走入2003年。2002年之所以不平凡,是因为在一片惨淡之中,国际干散货运输市场一枝独秀,在很短的时间内就完成了结束低谷进入波峰的大动作,并把这种强势带入了2003年。虽然目前受远东地区农历新年的影响,市场出现一定的调整,但仍处于高位,假日过后市场将会重新步入上升区间,总体上今年的市场环境要好于2002年。     

珠三角集装箱码头发展与香港关系的定量论述

针对不同层面关注珠三角集装箱码头发展与香港的关系,从香港、深圳港和广州港等集装箱运输发展现状及关系着手,结合广东省外贸集装箱生成量和珠江三角洲集装箱码头规划和建设情况,在不同情景下以顺向和逆向思维预测和定量分析香港与珠三角集装箱码头吞吐量之间的互补关系,探索它们之间共同繁荣、协调发展的平衡点.     

Reliability analysis of a bulk carrier in ultimate limit state under combined global and local loads in the hogging and alternate hold loading condition

The alternate hold still-water loading in hogging combined with wave loading is critical for the safe design of bulk carriers. The ultimate longitudinal strength of the hull girder of bulk carriers in this condition has been found to be considerably reduced by the action of local lateral pressure loads. In the present paper, an interaction equation based on the ultimate hull girder strength assessment obtained by nonlinear finite element analyses is adopted to consider the relationship between ultimate longitudinal bending capacity and average external sea pressure over the bottom. This interaction equation is used as the basis for the failure function. The annual probability of failure is obtained by FORM analysis considering two typical load cases, namely, pure longitudinal hogging bending moment and combined global hogging bending moment and local lateral pressure loads. The effect of heavy weather avoidance on the failure probability is evaluated. The results show that the local lateral pressure has a significant influence on the annual probability of failure of bulk carriers in the hogging and alternate hold loading condition.     

Modelling the effects of physical–biological interactions and spatial variability in spawning and nursery areas on transport and retention of sardine Sardinops sagax eggs and larvae in the southern Benguela ecosystem

A particle-tracking individual-based model (IBM) coupled with a 3-D hydrodynamic model was used to investigate how spatial variability in spawning and nursery grounds may influence transport and retention of sardine (Sardinops sagax) eggs and larvae in the southern Benguela ecosystem. A temperature-dependent Bělehrádek development model based on laboratory growth data was used to determine the duration of one egg and two larval stages. Successful transport/retention depended on each particle's stage of development rather than its age. Results show that recruitment could occur in two distinct nursery areas on the west and south coasts of South Africa. Three viable recruitment ‘systems’ were identified: two are retention-based (spawned and retained on the west coast (WC–WC) or the south coast (SC–SC)) and one is transport-based (spawned on the south coast and transported to the west coast (SC–WC)). In the WC–WC system, the vertical distribution of eggs influenced retention; at intermediate depths of spawning (25–50 m) eggs avoided both offshore Ekman drift and deep cold water. In the SC–SC system, the area of spawning was important; > 50% of eggs from the eastern Agulhas Bank (EAB) were retained in the south coast nursery grounds, whereas very few eggs were transported there from west of Cape Agulhas. In the SC–WC system, area of spawning was also important; 40% of the eggs spawned on the western Agulhas Bank (WAB) were transported to the west coast nursery ground. Sardine life history strategy could be divided between two main systems: the west coast system (spawning on the WAB and WC, and recruiting to the WC) and the Agulhas Bank system (spawning on the central and eastern Agulhas Bank, and recruiting to the SC).     

射频仿真系统中的弹目偏角修正方法研究

射频仿真系统中导弹转台作为导弹姿态模拟器引入对试验结果的影响是多方面的,文章针对导引头安装于转台产生不同心度的原因进行了分析,通过建立的临时坐标系与导引头坐标系之间几何关系,得出弹目偏角的具体修正算法,该方法使多种因素带来的误差得以量化处理。将修正后的角度信息引入仿真试验将会消除由不同心度带来的误差量。     

三体船快速性的自航自控船模试验研究

研发了一套自控自航船模数据采集与分析系统,此系统以PAC为核心部件,通过开发的基于VB.NET语言的控制程序,可以实现动力系统和操纵系统的手动与自动执行,并对相关传感器的数据进行同步采集.试验数据用系统辨识的方法进行分析处理.应用此系统对一型三体船进行了快速性试验,并对处理结果进行了简单的比对,表明用此自航自控船模数据采集与分析系统工作可靠,得到的结果准确实用,而且具有良好的发展前景.