基于AHP法的船载固体散货安全评价指标体系研究

文中研究借鉴《IMSBC》的要求,将影响船载固体散货运输安全的因素分为三大类,应用层次分析法构建了固体散货运输安全评价指标体系,并结合实例进行了说明,为解决固体散货船舶监管问题提供了一个全新的思路。     

Disaster prevention and strategic investment for multiple ports in a region: cooperation or not

With the growth of maritime transportation, seaports have become critical to the world economy as linking nodes between shipping and inland transport. However, the port system is fragile under certain unconventional emergency events. This study addresses the issue of investment on disaster prevention within the port competition context. The present model discusses and compares four situations of different relationships and strategies of pre-disaster prevention between two adjacent ports. Results indicate that both ports increase the disaster prevention investment under the cooperation scenario compared with that in the case of non-cooperation wherein they are complementary ports. Meanwhile, a numerical simulation is conducted to examine the collective and individual rationality of both ports. Although cooperation strategy decreases the total risk cost of two ports, one of the two ports may profit, whereas the other may suffer losses.     

山体滑坡海事风险的三维测度方法

为了更科学地评判山体滑坡灾害导致的海事风险并且科学实施水上交通管制决策,研究山体滑坡海事风险的三维测度方法。以大中规模剧动式滑坡涌浪为研究对象,根据山体滑坡海事风险的形成过程研究其海事风险的三维测度方法,提出了以山体滑坡变形破坏阶段、滑坡涌浪规模、涌浪损毁船舶的系统风险综合系数为测度指标的海事风险评判模型,并通过实例说明该方法及风险评判模型的应用。研究结论表明:该海事风险测度方法及评判模型,考虑了山体滑坡险情水上交通管制的主要因素,全面地反映了山体滑坡灾害导致的海事风险特征。     

Causes of casualties and the regulation of occupational health and safety in the shipping industry

The aim of this paper is to investigate maritime safety from an occupational hazards perspective as opposed to a maritime casualty perspective. It is recognised that safety in shipping should encompass casualties arising from accidents occurring in the course of performing normal seafaring duties, not just those arising from technical defects or maritime disasters. The paper discusses an investigation involving a survey of 19 flag states and two detailed studies of records kept at the Hong Kong and Singapore maritime administrations. The results indicate that occupational accidents account for a significant proportion of fatalities at sea. The statistics presented specify the ship types that are most at risk, as well as the types of occupational hazards that can most frequently lead to accidents and fatalities. The results of this study indicate voids in the process of investigating fatalities that relate to occupational accidents. These results also indicate inadequate investigation of events and causes. The creation of a database of such information could potentially be used for the development of appropriate regulations that could prevent fatal and non-fatal occupational accidents through regulatory processes.     

海事执法责任风险评估建模研究

开展海事执法责任风险评估建模研究,对降低、规避海事执法的责任风险,确保海事执法人员全面、安全履职具有重大的理论意义和现实意义。文中通过研究借鉴其他专业领域的风险控制理论,并对以往海事执法责任案例进行归纳统计,推导出计算海事执法风险的数学模型,为海事系统识别、评估、预控各项执法风险提供数理依据。     

Simulation-based severe weather-induced container terminal economic loss estimation

Container terminals play a critical role in maritime supply chains. However, they show vulnerabilities to severe weather events due to the sea–land interface locations. Previous severe weather risk analysis focused more on larger assessment units, such as regions and cities. Limited studies assessed severe weather risks on a smaller scale of seaports. This paper aims to propose a severe weather-induced container terminal loss estimation framework. Based on a container terminal operation simulation model, monthly average loss and single event-induced loss are obtained by using historical hazard records and terminal operation records as model inputs. By studying the Port of Shenzhen as the case study, we find that the fog events in March lead to the longest monthly port downtime and the highest monthly severe weather-induced economic losses in the studied port. The monthly average loss is estimated to be 30 million USD, accounting for 20% of the intact income. The worst-case scenario is found to be a red-signal typhoon attack which results in nearly 20% decrease in the month’s income. The results provide useful references for various container terminal stakeholders in severe weather risk management.     

Hazardous material incidents: Some key results of a risk analysis

Human safety and health, environmental and property protection and security concerning hazardous materials supply chain are important issues for many countries, industries and organisations around the world. This paper presents some key results of a comprehensive risk study on hazardous materials supply chain incidents. Based on a risk analysis framework adapted for maritime transport of packaged dangerous goods, this study combines qualitative and quantitative analysis of large and diverse datasets collected from some of the U.S.’s best and largest data sources. The study may be one of the largest of its kind, and some of the results might not be found elsewhere. Incidents have occurred in every system of the hazardous materials supply chain, including platforms, all modes of transport, chemical plants, terminals and storages. The results show that more than half (52.1 %) of incidents are attributed to the transport system. The study largely considers incidents happening during maritime transport, which account for 18% of transport incidents. In absolute terms, the FN curves of maritime transport human risks are generally found to be well below the corresponding FN curves of aggregated supply chain human risks.     

Themes and tools of maritime transport research during 2000-2014

This study examines how maritime transport has been researched through a comprehensive review of papers published in 19 transportation journals over the period 2000–2014. Systematic investigation shows that Maritime Policy & Management plays a prominent role in publishing maritime transport research. At the same time, ‘shipping’ is a dominant research area, with ‘port management, service, performance, efficiency and competitiveness’; ‘shipping market, industry, freight rate and economic impact’; and ‘terminal studies’ as the most popular topics. Nevertheless, few efforts have investigated ‘shipping finance’; ‘shipping service’; or ‘port risk and security.’ Since 2000, the use of quantitative analysis techniques has steadily increased in maritime transport to help participants make decisions scientifically. We here present the major data analysis techniques and highlight some limitations regarding their application. Thus, we provide a better understanding of how maritime transport research has been undertaken in a quantitative manner.     

A trial application of FSA methodology to the hatchway watertight integrity of bulk carriers

Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a formal, structured and systematic methodology, aimed at enhancing maritime safety, including protection of life, property and marine environment, by using risk and cost–benefit assessments. For the application of this methodology to the rule-making process, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) presented the Interim Guidelines, which describe procedures of FSA and inputs/outputs of each procedure in detail. This paper basically deals with an application of FSA methodology according to the IMO's Interim Guidelines to the hatchway watertight integrity of bulk carriers, which was carried out as a cooperative research between Korean Register of Shipping and Seoul National University. As results of this application study, 18 hazards are identified and 32 risk control measures are devised to reduce the associated risks. Potential risks, costs and benefits when some Risk Control Options are introduced are evaluated in monetary unit of US $. Finally, some discussions and recommendations based on experiences are also given for both future work and better application of this FSA methodology to the rule-making process.     

论《国际海运固体散装货物规则》的实施

文中就《国际海运固体散装货物规则》生效后,根据交通运输部海事局《关于执行<国际海运固体散装货物规则>有关事项的通知》要求,结合国内固体散装货物运输的现状,就海运固体散装货物申报、载运固体散装货物船舶申报进行了细致分析。对载运固体散装货物船舶提出了具体要求。针对检测机构,固体散装货物装、卸作业单位和海事机构监管工作提供了具有可操作性的参考。     

Effective maritime security: conceptual model and empirical evidence

In recent years, the issue of maritime security has become a major concern on the international maritime agenda. One of the issues in this respect is how to enhance security while not jeopardizing organizational efficiency and effectiveness, or to manage security effectively, e.g. facilitating the smooth flows of materials while enhancing supply chain security at the same time. In addressing this issue, we place three cornerstones for the effective management of security in maritime transport: quality management (QM), risk management (RM) and business continuity management (BCM). A conceptual model of effective maritime security, including 13 dimensions and 24 associated critical success factors, is devised following this reasoning. The model was tested through a survey of 119 maritime transport organizations and 25 interviews conducted in Vietnam. Findings support that all proposed 24 factors are valid and should be used as critical factors for success in effectively managing security in maritime transport, in that those involving security incident handling and response are rated as the most important in magnitude, along with security risk assessment, risk-based security mitigation strategies and plans, and senior management commitment and leadership. Managers can use the model designed and tested in this research to develop a checklist of essential components for their company's security management policies, strategies and plans. The use of a universal checklist to evaluate maritime security management would also greatly facilitate benchmarking across organizations in the industry.     

探讨VTS在水上危险货物运输监管中的作用

随着现代石油化工业和现代航运业的快速发展．由水路运输的危险货物的数量和品种越来越多，水路运输在给危险货物运输带来便捷的同时，也给水域环境带来了严重的威胁．文章从预防船舶交通事故和控制船舶污染的角度、对VTS在危险货物运输监管中可以发挥的作用进行探讨。     

Assessment of the chemical concentrations and the environmental risk of tank cleaning effluents in the Baltic Sea

The environmental risks of tank cleaning waters were evaluated in this study by conducting a risk assessment of five target chemicals (nonylphenol, phenol, sulphuric acid, styrene and xylenes) following EU risk assessment methodology in which the Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PECs) of the chemicals are determined and compared to their corresponding predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs). The results of the risk assessment demonstrated the importance of prewashing cargo tanks ashore before the main washing. Without prewashing the cargo tanks and discharging the generated prewashing effluents into reception facilities ashore, the PEC/PNEC ratios obtained for further washings exceed accepted levels regardless of the chemical and the quantity of chemical residue (15:50:300 l). In contrast, if the cargo tanks are prewashed and the remaining prewash residues in the tanks are small (≤15 l), the risk arising from tank cleaning effluents stays at accepted levels, and no harm is caused to aquatic organisms. When the prewash residue is around 50 l, the risk arising from further washings mostly remains at accepted levels. Whenever the prewashing is carried out, the tank washings only represent a minor and local risk for water biota. The study showed that prewashing requirements for the most hazardous category of X cargoes and high-viscosity and solidifying Y cargoes are necessary to keep the hazards arising from these substances at accepted levels. Furthermore, MARPOL Y class also includes persistent and toxic chemicals whose release in the sea without prewashing is not recommended, even if the regulations might not necessarily require prewashing.     

Reliable container line supply chains

Container line supply chains, based on a near-frictionless international transport belief, have contributed to economic prosperity and also rendered themselves uniquely vulnerable to various risks. 9/11 terrorists attacks, the lock-out of American West Ports and the global breakout of SARS disease have gradually shown that a) the safety and reliability in the chains are facing an unprecedented challenge and b) traditional engineeringbased risk assessment methods are inadequate to deal with the threats from variational environments, especially in the era of terrorism rampancy. The purpose of this paper is, therefore, to develop a conceptual risk assessment model for container line supply chains based on a modified Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) methodology that takes risks from vulnerability rather than only hazards into account. It gives particular emphasis on the analysis of the threats with a high level of uncertainty from both safety and economic viewpoints. The advantages of the vulnerability-based risk analysis approach to the hazard-based one are clarified and both engineering-based and managerial risk assessments are also discussed.     

Undeclared dangerous goods — Risk implications for maritime transport

Dangerous goods that have not been correctly declared when offered for transport have contributed to some serious accidents at sea. Safe handling, stowage, and segregation of packaged dangerous goods cannot be carried out if there is no knowledge of the presence of dangerous goods inside the cargo transport unit (container and/or trailer), or if the goods have been incorrectly declared. Although undeclared dangerous goods are recognized as a safety issue in the shipping industry, there is little information available on the extent of the risk involved. The study described in this paper was carried out to investigate the extent and potential consequences of the maritime transport of undeclared dangerous goods. Dangerous goods incident and inspection reports and ship casualty data were reviewed and analysed. A generic qualitative model was constructed to illustrate contributing factors and potential consequences in incidents involving undeclared dangerous goods.     

Disruption risks and mitigation strategies: an analysis of Asian ports

The critical nature of a seaport is a connection point. In addition to the effect on port operations, a port disruption will be a strain on trade flows and the various parties concerned. Climate change, oil spill, security, social and political instability are increasing concerns over the years which would lead to higher risks. With significant growing trade volume in Asia, there is a pressing need for comprehensive studies to prepare ports for disruptions. This paper aims to analyse and categorise the disruptions that have occurred in Asian ports and estimate the likelihood of recurrence based on the data since the year 1900. Results reveal a rising trend of disruptive events. Natural disasters and labour strikes are the two main causes of port disruptions, while natural disasters lead to the highest severity in terms of cargo tons affected. Mitigation strategies proposed in terms of both preventive and reactive measures are specifically designed to reduce the likelihood and severity of the various types of port disruptions. The paper provides recommendations on risk mitigation for relevant parties.     

Ship, port and supply chain security concepts interlinking maritime with hinterland transport chains

As maritime processes do no stop at sea ports, hinterland operations have to be considered and addressed as well. This becomes obviously on designing and managing seamless cargo and information flows from/to hinterland regions via sea ports from/to transcontinental markets. Nowadays, also security-related aspects need to be tackled in order to enable continuous flows corresponding to security legislations and technical requirements set up in the field of maritime and intermodal hinterland transport. Ensuring transport security within the European transport market requires both adequate security legislations and innovative concepts. While for the maritime sector, including sea ports, security regulations are already in force, hinterland operations (road, rail and Inland Waterway Transport) are only indirectly affected today, either on carrying out transports from/to sea ports or exporting commodities to overseas territories. This results in the need for innovative security strategies and concepts combining maritime with hinterland transport enabling seamless security processes.     

Review and application of ship collision and grounding analysis procedures

It is the purpose of the paper to present a review of prediction and analysis tools for collision and grounding analyses and to outline a probabilistic procedure for which these tools can be used by the maritime industry to develop performance based rules to reduce the risk associated with human, environmental and economic costs of collision and grounding events. The main goal of collision and grounding research should be to identify the most economic risk control options associated with prevention and mitigation of collision and grounding events.     

船载固体散货流态化数值分析

散货船装载的镍矿、铁矿在运输过程中会发生流态化,流态化导致货物流动性增强,从而降低船舶稳性。当船舶在波浪中航行时,货物的移动会产生一个额外的力矩,该力矩有可能导致船舶倾覆。基于离散元方法,对不同含水率的货物进行了静倾斜、休止角的数值模拟,在全尺度计算中给定了颗粒尺寸和时间步长的选取标准,并采用全尺度货舱模型分析了影响货物稳定性的关键参数。该数值分析方法可为固体散货海上运输过程中船舶稳性预测和安全隐患评估提供参考。     

关于海事人为因素的层次分析法

航海是一项有风险性的行业,船只在航行中遭遇自然灾害和意外事故导致人身和财产损失的情况是比较常见的。一直以来航运界都在企图找到发生海上事故的原因以减少损失、降低风险,在气候、环境、船舶结构、设备诸方面都做了研究,却收效甚微。其实再先进的船舶也得由人来操纵,人的素质高低对船舶航行的安全有着主要的影响。本文将探讨用层次分析法对导致海事发生的人为因素进行分析。