Implications of the cost of public funds in public transit subsidization and regulation

This paper identifies some implications of the cost of public funds (CF) in public transit subsidization and regulation. Regulation is considered because a monopolistic operator is assumed. A social welfare maximization model is proposed, subject to individual rationality and vehicle capacity constraints. Optimality conditions are provided and a key formula is derived about CF’s role in balancing the need to cover the fixed operation cost through fares on the operator’s side and the effort to maintain the user surplus on the passengers’ side. Major findings from this model’s formulation include: (1) CF determines the extent to which the passengers’ surplus is compromised in order to cover the fixed part of the operating cost, and (2) subsidy is unjustified when CF exceeds the critical shadow price of the financial constraint. Analytical relations are illustrated through numerical examples.     

An analysis of public bus transit performance in Indian cities

Maintaining and enhancing public transit service in Indian cities is important, to meet rapidly growing mass mobility needs, and curb personal motor vehicle activity and its impacts at low cost. Indian cities rely predominantly on buses for public transport, and are likely to continue to do so for years. However, the public bus transit service is inadequate, and unaffordable for the urban poor. The paper explores the factors that contribute to and affect efforts to improve this situation, based on an analysis of the financial and operational performance of the public bus transit service in the four metropolitan centres and four secondary cities during the 1990s. Overall, there were persistent losses, owing to increasing input costs and declining productivity. The losses occurred despite rapidly increasing fares, and ridership declined. The situation, and the ability to address it, is worse in the secondary cities than the metropolitan centres. We suggest a disaggregated approach based on the needs and motivations of different groups in relation to public transit, along with improved operating conditions and policies to internalize costs of personal motor vehicle use, to address the challenge of providing financially viable and affordable public bus transit service.     

an analysis of transportation energy conservation projects in developing countries

Industrialized countries have extensive experience with various transportation energy conservation measures and have been making steady progress in improving the efficiency of their transport sector. Less Developed Countries (LDCs) have also been making progress, but their experience in many aspects of transportation energy conservation is very limited. Development organizations have funded many transportation projects in developing countries, but the vast majority of these projects were designed to improve the transportation infrastructure. Very few transportation energy conservation projects have been implemented and decision-makers face a scarcity of information on effective strategies. This paper gives an overview of transportation projects in LDCs in order to identify those transportation energy conservation measures that offer the greatest potential for LDCs. Two case studies, from Tunisia and Costa Rica, are given to illustrate the issues involved in implementing transportation energy conservation measures in LDCs. Conclusions are drawn to suggest actions for developing countries and for development organizations.Acronyms DECAT Driver Energy Conservation Awareness Training - DSE Direccion Sectorial de Energia (Costa Rica) - GDP Gross domestic product - km Kilometer - LDCs Less Developed Countries - TOE Metric tonne of oil equivalent - USAID US Agency for International Development     

Railway planning in developing countries: a case study of Colombia

This paper describes a study of possible network changes for the Colombian railway system. A cost model is developed and the variation of costs with traffic density and with gradient is analysed and found to be different from that expected from experience in developed countries. The evaluation of network changes is carried out by a form of systems analysis in which two new lines and many closures are examined. Closures are evaluated by means of social cost benefit analysis incorporating a consumers’ surplus approach. The study recommends fairly radical changes to the present network configuration, these involving the construction of one new line and the closure of several existing ones.     

A test of inter-modal performance measures for transit investment decisions

Choices among alternative transit capital investments are often complex and politically controversial. There is renewed interest in the use of performance indicators to assist in making rational and defensible choices for the investment of public funds. To improve the evaluation of rail and bus performance and provide more useful information for transit investment decision-makers, it is important to use performance indicators that fairly and efficiently compare different transit modes. This paper proposes a set of inter-modal performance indicators in which service input, service output, and service consumption are measured by total cost, revenue capacity miles/hours, and unlinked passenger trips/miles respectively based on economic principles and evaluation objectives. The proposed improvements involve the inclusion of capital as well as operating costs in such comparisons, and the recognition of the widely varying capacities of transit vehicles for seated and standing passengers. Two California cases, the Los Angeles – Long Beach Corridor and the Market/Judah Corridor in San Francisco, are used for testing their usefulness in the evaluation of the efficiency and effectiveness of rail and bus services. The results show substantial differences between performance indicators in current use and those proposed in this study. The enhanced inter-modal performance indicators are more appropriate for comparing the efficiency and effectiveness of different modes or a combination of transit modes at the corridor and system levels where most major investment decisions are made. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A structured flexible transit system for low demand areas

Public transit structure is traditionally designed to contain fixed bus routes and predetermined bus stations. This paper presents an alternative flexible-route transit system, in which each bus is allowed to travel across a predetermined area to serve passengers, while these bus service areas collectively form a hybrid “grand” structure that resembles hub-and-spoke and grid networks. We analyze the agency and user cost components of this proposed system in idealized square cities and seek the optimum network layout, service area of each bus, and bus headway, to minimize the total system cost. We compare the performance of the proposed transit system with those of comparable systems (e.g., fixed-route transit network and taxi service), and show how each system is advantageous under certain passenger demand levels. It is found out that under low-to-moderate demand levels, the proposed flexible-route system tends to have the lowest system cost.     

A pre-appraisal model for rail transit in developing cities

A major research study funded by the UK Overseas Development Administration (ODA) and designed to establish the necessary considerations for viability of mass rapid transit railways in developing cities was recently completed. The analytical core of the study was a pre-appraisal model, which combines an innovative strategic land use/transport model utilizing relationships from developing cities and an economic evaluation model. This model — MRTAP — has now been developed into a user-friendly package which the ODA intend should be made widely available in the developing world. The paper describes the basis of this model.     

Efficiency of urban public transit: A meta analysis

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, to provide a statistical overview of the literature on public transit efficiency performance. Second, to statistically explain the variation in efficiency findings reported in the literature. To this end, first some key concepts of efficiency analysis will be introduced, while next the different frontier methodologies that are used in the literature will be discussed. The empirical part of this paper consists of a statistical summary of the literature as well as meta-regression analyses for different samples of the literature in order to identify key determinants of technical efficiency (TE) of public transit operators. For a broad sample of observations, we found significant and consistent effects of the type of database, region and output measurement method. For the sample of non-parametric studies we found that the type of frontier assumptions also have an impact on the efficiency ratio. Further results show that there is no statistical difference in TE ratios between parametric and non-parametric studies. Finally, we found a positive univariate relationship between the number of inputs in the estimated specification and the efficiency ratio.     

A methodology to derive the critical demand density for designing and operating feeder transit services

Feeder lines are one of the most often used types of flexible transit services connecting a service area to a major transit network through a transfer point. They often switch operations between a demand responsive and a fixed-route policy. In designing and running such systems, the identification of the condition justifying the operating switch is often hard to properly evaluate. In this paper, we propose an analytical model and solution of the problem to assist decision makers and operators in their choice. By employing continuous approximations, we derive handy but powerful closed-form expressions to estimate the critical demand densities, representing the switching point between the competing operating policies. Based on the results of one-vehicle and two-vehicle operations for various scenarios, in comparison to values generated from simulation, we verify the validity of our analytical modeling approach.     

Forecasting ridership for a metropolitan transit authority

The recent volatility in gasoline prices and the economic downturn have made the management of public transportation systems particularly challenging. Accurate forecasts of ridership are necessary for the planning and operation of transit services. In this paper, monthly ridership of the Metropolitan Tulsa Transit Authority is analyzed to identify the relevant factors that influence transit use. Alternative forecasting models are also developed and evaluated based on these factors—using regression analysis (with autoregressive error correction), neural networks, and ARIMA models—to predict transit ridership. It is found that a simple combination of these forecasting methodologies yields greater forecast accuracy than the individual models separately. Finally, a scenario analysis is conducted to assess the impact of transit policies on long-term ridership.     

Subsidy and public transit performance: A factor analytic approach

The need to measure and evaluate transit system performance has led to the development of numerous performance indicators. However, depending upon the indicator, we oftentimes reach different conclusions regarding transit system performance. The research reported in this paper uses factor analytic methods to generate a set of underlying attributes (factors) that capture the performance of public transit systems in Indiana. Similar to what is reported in the literature, this study finds three attributes that best describe transit system performance: efficiency, effectiveness, and overall performance. Based upon systemsÕ factor scores, the study finds that systems scoring highly on one attribute generally perform well on the remaining attributes. Further, there is an inverse relationship between system performance and subsidies, a finding that supports performance based subsidy allocations.     

A causal analysis of car ownership and transit use

The causal structure underlying household mobility is examined in this study using a sample obtained from the Dutch National Mobility Panel survey. The results indicate that car ownership is strongly associated with mode use, but that it has no influence on weekly person trip generation by household members. Characteristics of mode use are examined through a causal analysis of changes in car ownership, number of drivers, number of car trips, and number of transit trips. It is shown that observed changes in mode use cannot be adequately explained by assuming that a change in transit use influences car use. The finding suggests that the increase in car use, which is a consequence of increasing car ownership, may not be suppressed by improving public transit.     

A multiple criteria approach for the evaluation of the rail transit networks in Istanbul

The deficiencies in the Istanbul transportation system have led the local authorities to plan several alternative transportation projects. In this paper three alternative rail transit network proposals are evaluated by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple criteria decision support system. The AHP facilitates decision-making by organizing perceptions, experiences, knowledge and judgments, the forces that influence the decision, into a hierarchical framework with a goal, scenarios, criteria and alternatives of choice. Based on this analysis, the decision makers have developed a new alternative as a combination of the most closely competing two alternative rail transit networks. This combination rail transit network is currently under construction.     

A simultaneous route-level transit patronage model: demand,supply, and inter-route relationship

In this paper we present a route-level patronage model that incorporates transit demand, supply and inter-route effects in a simultaneous system. The model is estimated at the route-segment level by time of day and direction. The results show strong simultaneity among transit demand, supply and competing routes. Transit ridership is affected by the level of service, which in turn is determined by current demand and ridership in the previous year. The model demonstrates that a service improvement has a twofold impact on ridership; it increases ridership on the route with service changes, but it also reduces the ridership on competing routes so that the net ridership change is small. The model is thus useful for both system-level analysis and route-level service planning.     

An improved headway-based holding strategy for bus transit

Abstract

This paper presents an improved headway-based holding strategy integrating bus transit travel and dwelling time prediction. A support vector machine-based (SVM) model is developed to predict the baseline travel and dwell times of buses based on recent data. In order to reduce prediction errors, an adaptive algorithm is used together with real-time bus operational information and estimated baseline times from SVM models. The objective of the improved holding strategy is to minimize the total waiting times of passengers at the current stop and at successive stops. Considering the time-varying features of bus running, a ‘forgetting factor’ is introduced to weight the most recent data and reduce the disturbance from unexpected incidents. Finally, the improved holding strategy proposed in this study is illustrated using the microscopic simulation model Paramics and some conclusions are drawn.     

Planning hierarchical urban transit systems for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions

Public transit systems with high occupancy can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to low-occupancy transportation modes, but current transit systems have not been designed to reduce environmental impacts. This motivates the study of the benefits of design and operational approaches for reducing the environmental impacts of transit systems. For example, transit agencies may replace level-of-service (LOS) by vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as a criterion in evaluating design and operational changes. In previous work, we explored the unintended consequences of lowering transit LOS on emissions in a single-technology transit system. Herein, we extend the analysis to account for a more realistic case: a transit system with a hierarchical structure (trunk and feeder lines) providing service to a city where demand is elastic. By considering the interactions between the trunk and the feeder systems, we provide a quantitative basis for designing and operating integrated urban transit systems that can reduce GHG emissions and societal costs. We find that highly elastic transit demand may cancel emission reduction potentials resulting from lowering LOS, due to demand shifts to lower occupancy vehicles. However, for mass transit modes, these potentials are still significant. Transit networks with buses, bus rapid transit or light rail as trunk modes should be designed and operated near the cost-optimal point when the demand is highly elastic, while this is not required for metro. We find that the potential for unintended consequences increases with the size of the city. Our results are robust to uncertainties in the costs and emissions parameters.     

Structural equation modeling of user satisfaction of bus transit service quality based on stated preferences and latent variables

Few studies have been conducted on the service quality (SQ) of bus transit in developing countries. This paper presents a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach to identifying the relationships among major attributes that affect the SQ of bus transit in the city of Dhaka in Bangladesh. Specifically, 22 bus transit SQ attributes, drawn from 655 questionnaires, are used to develop different SEM models for the city. Along with stated preferences, the effect of three latent variables on SQ is analyzed. Among the developed models, the best model is selected by using different statistical approaches. With the best model, selected attributes are rated according to their relative importance on SQ. Acknowledging limited resources of a developing nation, this study gives a clear way ahead to planners, operating companies and transport managers to design appropriate transport policies which will ensure more effective services to current bus users as well as attracting new passengers.     

Validation of a schedule‐based capacity restraint transit assignment model for a large‐scale network

This paper describes the application of a capacity restraint trip assignment algorithm to a real, large‐scale transit network and the validation of the results. Unlike the conventional frequency‐based approach, the network formulation of the proposed model is dynamic and schedule‐based. Transit vehicles are assumed to operate to a set of pre‐determined schedules. Passengers are assumed to select paths based on a generalized cost function including in‐vehicle and out‐of‐vehicle time and line change penalty. The time‐varying passenger demand is loaded onto the network by a time increment simulation method, which ensures that the capacity restraint of each vehicle during passenger boarding is strictly observed. The optimal‐path and path‐loading algorithms are applied iteratively by the method of successive averages until the network converges to the predictive dynamic user equilibrium. The Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway network is used to validate the model results. The potential applications of the model are also discussed.