An application of variance reduction techniques in freeway simulation

Computer simulation models are used in a variety of applications in transportation engineering and have become a prime aid in decision making. The applications range from evaluating traffic control strategies for single intersections to such complex decision processes as evaluating the impact of removing toll facilities at the George Washington Bridge in New York City. While it is widely accepted that simulation offers an unmatchable capability of evaluating alternate control policies, the high variance of the output variable presents a critical problem in such comparative analyses. The simulation models with high output variance must be run longer or replicated many times to achieve a desired precision level, and that corresponds to increased cost of computer resources. This paper describes and illustrates the application of variance reduction concepts that can improve the reliability and efficiency of the simulation experimental process by taking advantage of the simulation model structure. The two variance reduction concepts (common random numbers and antithetic variates) reduce the variance of the output variable by replacing the original sampling procedure with a new procedure that yields the same expected value but with a smaller variance. The application of the variance reduction concept was illustrated using results from experiments with a freeway simulation model. The results indicate that both common random numbers and antithetic variates sampling procedures appreciably reduce the variance of the simulation output measure.     

A new approach to time-of-day control based on a dynamic freeway traffic model

This paper presents a new approach to time-of-day control. While time-of-day control strategies presented up-to-now are only optimal under steady-state conditions, the control algorithm derived in this paper takes into account the evolution of traffic flow according to the time delay between a volume change at a ramp and its subsequent disturbance at a freeway point downstream. The new control strategy is based on the solution of a linear programming optimization problem and makes freeway volume hold the capacity constraints for the total time of control operation. In order to reduce the computational effort a simplified version of the new algorithm is also discussed. Simulation results obtained by use of two different traffic flow models show that control derived through the new algorithm can avoid congestion and ensure operation with peak performance even if a steady-state condition is never attained.     

利用MOBILE6.2模型预测高速公路路段综合排放因子

采用美国环保局(EPA)的MOBILE6.2模型,结合滨州市的实际情况,对滨州市的两个高速公路站,黄河大桥站和无棣站,通过车辆数目、车型进行统计分析,从而得到两个高速公路站点排放因子数据,其计算结果能为高速公路机动车污染控制提供依据,同时也提出了一种新的使用模型来计算高速公路路段排放因子的方法。     

Impacts of impression changes on freeway driver intention to adopt electronic toll collection service

This paper proposes conceptual frameworks incorporating technology acceptance model, theory of planned behavior and three additional constructs – impression changes, attitude of government, and risk to investigate the factors affecting freeway driver intention to adopt electronic toll collection service for both users and nonusers of electronic toll collection. The proposed frameworks are unique because of the incorporation of media and word-of-mouth effects to represent the impression changes, respectively. The respondents were specifically asked about their impressions of electronic toll collection related policies and strategies spread through media and word-of-mouth before and after electronic toll collection operation. Estimated results obtained from structural equations modeling validate that impression changes in both media and word-of-mouth exhibit significant direct or indirect effects on freeway driver intention to adopt electronic toll collection service. Corresponding strategies to enhance electronic toll collection adoption rate are then proposed accordingly.     

Modeling the effects of traveler information on freeway origin–destination demand prediction

The primary focus of this research is to develop an approach to capture the effect of travel time information on travelers’ route switching behavior in real-time, based on on-line traffic surveillance data. It also presents a freeway Origin–Destination demand prediction algorithm using an adaptive Kalman Filtering technique, where the effect of travel time information on users’ route diversion behavior has been explicitly modeled using a dynamic, aggregate, route diversion model. The inherent dynamic nature of the traffic flow characteristics is captured using a Kalman Filter modeling framework. Changes in drivers’ perceptions, as well as other randomness in the route diversion behavior, have been modeled using an adaptive, aggregate, dynamic linear model where the model parameters are updated on-line using a Bayesian updating approach. The impact of route diversion on freeway Origin–Destination demands has been integrated in the estimation framework. The proposed methodology is evaluated using data obtained from a microscopic traffic simulator, INTEGRATION. Experimental results on a freeway corridor in northwest Indiana establish that significant improvement in Origin–Destination demand prediction can be achieved by explicitly accounting for route diversion behavior.     

Pedestrian crossing detection based on evidential fusion of video-sensors

This paper introduces an online pedestrian crossing detection system that uses pre-existing traffic-oriented video-sensors which, at regular intervals, provide coarse spatial measurements on areas along a crosswalk. Pedestrian crossing detection is based on the recognition of occupancy patterns induced by pedestrians when they move on the crosswalk. In order to improve the ability of non-dedicated sensors to detect pedestrians, we introduce an evidential-based data fusion process that exploits redundant information coming from one or two sensors: intra-sensor fusion uses spatiotemporal characteristics of the measurements and inter-sensor fusion uses redundancy between the two sensors. As part of the EU funded TRACKSS project on cooperative advanced sensors for road traffic applications, real data have been collected on an urban intersection equipped with two cameras. The results obtained show that the data fusion process enhances the quality of occupancy patterns obtained and leads to high detection rates of pedestrian crossings with multi-purpose sensors in operational conditions, especially when a secondary sensor is available.     

Evaluating marginal improvements to a transport network: An application to the Santiago underground

This paper describes a simplified methodology designed for quick investment appraisal of improvements to a transport network, and discusses its limitations and advantages particularly in the context of a developing country. The approach basically considers:

- a method to define the total population (relevant origin-destination pairs) affected by the project

- the selection of a low-cost background model to represent transport demand on a network at an aggregate level

- the choice of a suitable marginal demand model (in this case a discrete mode choice model) capable of providing the required sensitivity and accuracy to model the project

- the estimation of the marginal demand due to the project during all the years of the study horizon, and

- a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of the decision recommended using these two models.

Finally, the paper summarises the results of applying the methodology to the case of an extension to the Santiago underground; it was found that the project has a high social rate of return (almost 20 per cent). However, from the point of view of a private evaluation, it can cover its operating costs only.     

An application of shock wave theory to traffic signal control

A real time control policy minimizing total intersection delays subject to queue length constraints at an isolated signalized intersection is developed in this paper. The policy is derived from a new traffic model which describes the simultaneous evolution of queue lengths of two conflicting traffic streams, controlled by a traffic light, in both time and space. The model is based on the examination of shock waves generated upstream of the stop lines by the intermittent service of traffic at the signal. The proposed policy was tested against the existing pre-timed control policy at a high volume intersection and it was found superior, especially when demands increase well above the saturation level.     

An artificial neural network based method to uncover the value-of-travel-time distribution

Transportation - This study proposes a novel Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to derive the Value-of-Travel-Time (VTT) distribution. The strength of this method is that it is possible...     

基于遗传算法的BP神经网络短时交通流预测

对BP神经网络模型、方法及遗传算法的基本原理进行了分析,将遗传算法与标准BP神经网络算法相结合构建了基于遗传算法的神经网络算法;建立了基于BP神经网络的短时交通流预测模型,对BP神经网络算法及基于遗传算法的BP神经网络算法进行设计,并将其应用于短时交通流预测模型的仿真计算,仿真结果表明基于遗传算法的BP神经网络算法具有更快的计算速度及更好的适应能力,该方法可以较好地应用于短时交通流预测。     

An equilibrium algorithm for the spatial aggregation problem of traffic assignment

Present traffic assignment methods require that all possible origins and destinations of trips taking place within a study area be represented as if they were taking place to and from a small set of points or centroids. Each centroid is supposed to represent the location of all trip-ends within a given zone, and this necessarily misrepresents points located at the edges of the zone.In order to alleviate this problem (which we refer to as the spatial aggregation problem) one could use smaller zones and more centroids, but existing traffic assignment algorithms cannot efficiently handle many centroids.This paper introduces an algorithm procedure which is designed to handle a substantially larger number of centroids. In the paper that follows, the technique is further developed to take into account a continuous distribution of population.     

An application of activity-based travel analysis to simulation of change in behaviour

People are liable to exaggerate their future use of new transport facilities when they are interviewed about it before it is in operation. This is often due to the fact that they have no real frame of reference for the study. In order to overcome this, we have tried to perfect an original behaviour-change simulation method (Section 1). It has been tested on a town on the outskirts of Lyons (France) and has provided interesting results. However, to use it as a forecasting tool, we have to make sure that the assertions by potential users when interviewed are consistent with actual behaviour when the new facilities become available (Section 2). This test was carried out when a new light rail line was introduced in Grenoble (France). A first survey was undertaken before the opening of the new line, and people's actual (new) behaviour was surveyed after the new line opened. It is therefore possible to analyse the validity of the simulation (Section 3).     

An equity‐based passenger flow control model with application to Hong Kong‐Shenzhen border‐crossing

Cross‐border passengers from Hong Kong to Shenzhen by the east Kowloon‐Canton Railway (KCR) through the Lo Wu customs exceed nearly 200 thousand on a special day such as a day during the Chinese Spring Festival. Such heavy passenger demand often exceeds the processing and holding capacity of the Lo Wu customs for many hours a day. Thus, passengers must be metered off at all entrance stations along the KCR line through ticket rationing to restrain the number of passengers waiting at Lo Wu within its safe holding capacity. This paper proposes an optimal control strategy and model to deal with this passenger crowding and control problem. Because the maximum passenger checkout rate at Lo Wu is fixed, total passenger waiting time is not affected by the control strategy for given time‐dependent arriving rates at each station. An equity‐based control strategy is thus proposed to equalize the waiting times of passengers arriving at all stations at the same time. This equity is achieved through optimal allocation of the total quota of tickets to all entrance stations for each train service. The total ticket quota for each train service is determined such that the capacity constraint of the passenger queue at Lo Wu is satisfied. The control problem is formulated as a successive linear programming problem and demonstrated for the KCR system with partially simulated data.     

An application of continuous spatial models to freight movements in Greater London

This report describes an application of continuous spatial models to freight movements in Greater London. Continuous spatial models are fitted to data on the densities of generation and attraction of the freight assuming that the density is dependent on the distance from the centre of the area. The fit is measured using regression analysis and the results are examined. The graphs of the densities against the distance from the centre suggest an exponential relationship, and Clark's model is fitted to the data. The model fits fairly well to the data on densities for most groups of commodities. The correlation between the density and the distance is stronger for attraction than for generation in most groups of commodities.     

Exploring the impact of connected and autonomous vehicles on freeway capacity using a revised Intelligent Driver Model

ABSTRACT

Connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) technologies are expected to change driving/vehicle behavior on freeways. This study investigates the impact of CAVs on freeway capacity using a microsimulation tool. A four-lane basic freeway segment is selected as the case study through the Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS). To obtain valid results, various driving behavior parameters are calibrated to the real traffic conditions for human-driven vehicles. In particular, the calibration is conducted using genetic algorithm. A revised Intelligent Driver Model (IDM) is developed and used as the car-following model for CAVs. The simulation is conducted on the basic freeway segment under different penetration rates of CAVs and different freeway speed limits. The results show that with an increase in the market penetration rate, freeway capacity increases, and will increase significantly as the speed limit increases.     

Analysis of the efficiency of local government services delivery. An application to urban public transport

In recent years in the European Union (EU), we have witnessed an externalization process of the provision of local government services, in order to separate the political responsibility and the direct delivery of the service. The reasons that justify this process are focused on the belief that the private sector is more efficient in carrying out economic activities, the pressure to reduce the public deficit and the public debt, the search for management systems that bypass public administration procedures, and the increase of control on local governments in auditing and accountability issues.The objective of this paper is to compare the efficiency of public and private sectors in the provision of urban transportation services. This paper shows the results of an empirical study commissioned by the Regional Audit Office of Catalonia (Spain), in order to evaluate the efficiency with which urban transportation services are delivered in the most important cities of this region. This efficiency study has been carried out using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model, multiple linear regression and logit and cluster analysis. The results allow us to conclude that, in the cities studied, exogenous factors are not relevant and the private management of urban transport service is not more efficient than public management.     

Deciding whether and how to improve statewide travel demand models based on transportation planning application needs

Many states in the USA have developed statewide travel demand models for transportation planning at the state level and along intercity corridors. Travel demand models at mega-region and provincial levels are also widely used in Europe and Asia. With modern transportation planning applications requiring enhanced model capabilities, many states are considering improving their four-step statewide demand models. This paper synthesizes representative statewide models developed with traditional four-step, advanced four-step, and integrated micro-simulation methods. The focus of this synthesis study is as much on model applications and data requirements as on modeling methods. An incremental model improvement approach toward advanced statewide models is recommended. Review findings also suggest model improvement activities should be justified by planning application needs. For statewide model improvement plans to be successful and financially sustainable, the return on model improvement investment needs to be demonstrated by timely applications that rely on improved model capabilities.     

Cost-benefit analysis according to Sen: An application in the evaluation of transport infrastructures in France

Made compulsory in France for major transport infrastructures, cost-benefit analysis is constantly being improved to achieve the best socio-economic evaluation possible. According to the philosopher and economist Amartya Sen, this analysis should meet two requirements: one ethical, the other democratic. We will examine the evaluation procedure in France and highlight the gap between its officially more democratic character and its still insufficiently ethical character, from the viewpoint of this dual requirement.     

Multioutput analysis of cargo handling firms: An application to a Spanish port

Cargo handling in ports is a multioutput activity, as freight can arrive in many forms such as containers, bulk, rolling stock, or non-containerised general cargo. In this paper, the operation of cargo handling firms in a Spanish port is analysed through the estimation of a multioutput cost model that uses monthly data on three representative firms located at the Las Palmas port. This permits the calculation of product specific marginal costs, economies of scale (general and by firm) and economies of scope, which help identifying optimal pricing policies and the potential cost advantages of increasing production.