江苏近岸海域波浪的分布特征

利用2009年1—6月的实测波浪资料,研究位于江苏北部辐射沙洲南部沿海测站的波浪特征。通过统计计算和研究分析,获得其波高特征值,并探讨各特征波高与平均波高(有效波高)之间的关系;筛选出25组有效波高出现极值时刻的波面资料,运用概率统计的方法计算了波高、周期及两者之间的联合概率密度分布,并与其对应的理论公式结果进行对比。结果表明:Gluhovski分布较适用于本地区的波高分布规律;当谱宽度较小时,Longuet-Higgins理论周期分布与实测分布比较符合;实测波高与周期联合概率分布对于大波高小周期的情况与各理论分布均吻合较好。     

台风波高重现值的泊松最大熵分布估计

以日本中城湾观测站实测台风过程出现的最大波高序列为例,提出了泊松-最大熵复合极值分布,并将其用于计算台风海浪的重现值波高.采用年极值法与过阈法对台风波高进行长期统计分析.计算结果表明:观测时段相同,阈值的选取对重现值的估计影响不大.而阈值相同,抽样时段的长度对重现值估计的影响较大;若样本时段较短,但极值波高的最大值包含于其中,则估计得到的重现值偏大,该结果对于结构设计是偏安全的.     

联合极值分布在码头顶高程计算中的应用

介绍国际工程中常用的码头顶高程计算方法和二维极值分布，指出码头顶高程计算中主要考虑的变量是波高和水位。以几内亚铝矾土出口码头项目为例，提出波峰面高度重现期的概念。采用极值分布理论对水位和波高分别进行拟合，选择了合适的水位和波高联合极值分布模型。从案例计算结果对比分析发现，引入波峰面高度重现期的概念，采用水位和波高联合极值分布所计算的码头顶高程比采用二者单独一维极值分布计算的码头顶高程低。在波浪较小区域，该计算结论对EPC承包商控制成本、提高履约能力有积极作用。     

考虑颤振效应的超大型集装箱船极限强度

砰击颤振会威胁船体的总纵强度。依据海况对响应贡献率最大的原则确定计算海况,而后计算得出某超大型集装箱船的波浪载荷时历,并采用Weibull、Gumbel及GEV分布拟合得到载荷短期极值沿船长的分布且校核目标船的极限强度。将短期极值Weibull、Gumbel分布拟合的结果与载荷的规范计算结果进行对比,研究表明,有必要在考虑砰击颤振效应的工况下,利用波浪载荷直接预报结果校核目标船的结构强度,为后续研究提供参考。     

考虑颤振效应的超大型集装箱船极限强度

砰击颤振会威胁船体的总纵强度,本文先依据海况对响应贡献率最大的原则确定计算海况,然后计算得到一艘超大型集装箱船的波浪载荷时历,并采用Weibull、Gumbel以及GEV(Generalized Extreme Value distribution)分布拟合得到载荷短期极值沿船长的分布且校核了目标船的极限强度。本文通过短期极值Weibull、Gumbel分布拟合的结果与载荷的规范计算结果对比,发现有必要在考虑砰击颤振效应下利用波浪载荷直接预报结果校核目标船结构强度。     

基于马尔可夫链的极值波高预测

本文研究了由日最大波高系列估算设计极值波高时，相邻日最大波高间的相关性对极值预测的影响，从日最大波高系列遵从马尔可夫链的假定出发，考虑到国内外经常采用对数一正态分布的韦布尔分布拟合波高长期分布的现实，本文用解析法求解了对数一正态分布情况下的极值预测。同时，对解析法难以求解的非正态随机变量情况（如韦布尔分布），用计算机随机模拟方法求解其极值预测，用上述两种方法对北大西洋和北海有关日最大波高系列的预测     

江苏辐射沙洲北部海域风浪关系分析

根据江苏辐射沙洲北部海域(响水沿海)8个月的实测风与浪的资料统计分析了该区域的风浪关系。首先,统计了该海域的风速分布以及波向分布,然后采用新的风浪判别方法挑选出其中的风浪数据,通过最小二乘法拟合了有效波高、有效波周期和风速的曲线关系。结果表明各个方向的风速分布基本均匀,但波高分布差异较大,能起破坏性作用的波浪主要来自NW、NNW、N、NNE方向。拟合得到的关系式与实测分布符合较好,其中有效波高与有效波周期的关系式计算的结果与实测的平均相对误差较小,可用于该海域的波浪预报及作为附近工程建设的参考。     

熵分布原理与白龙尾站设计波高估计

为了得到更加客观的设计参数,寻找适应性更广的线型、选取更加合理的参数估计方法是水文极值要素频率分析的重要研究课题.将最大熵分布用于极值序列的统计分析,该分布有4个可调参数,适线分析更加灵活.以北海白龙尾海洋观测站16a极值波高记录为例,采用最大熵分布进行统计分析,并与冈贝尔、皮尔逊Ⅲ型,对数正态、威布尔分布的拟合结果进行比较,给出了白龙尾站设计波高参数,供海洋工程设计作为参考.     

二维极值分布在防波堤工程中的应用

本文对极值分布理论进行了介绍,对斜坡堤护面块石重量的计算方法进行了阐述。介绍了Hudson公式和Van der Meer公式,并对Hudson公式和Van der Meer公式的特点进行了叙述。通过建立波高与周期的二维联合分布模型,对不同波高和周期的联合重现期特征值进行了计算,并将波高和周期参数应用到Hudson公式和Van der Meer公式。经过对比,采用波高和周期的联合分布,可以使护面块石重量的计算值降低,对块石护面的设计具有借鉴意义。     

双层嵌套多目标概率模型在珠江三角洲港口工程环境分析中的应用

鉴于未来全球气候变暖、台风强度和频次有逐渐加剧的趋势,建港地区工程风险须得到重视。在分析了珠江三角洲所受台风灾害的基本类型后,采用双层嵌套多目标概率模式及复合极值分布模型（MCEVD）对珠三角的台风灾害及超强台风进行了预测,并将计算结果应用于港区最大风速、波高、排水等方面的设计。该模型能全面系统地反映台风致灾的整体机制,在港口工程环境分析中得到了较好的应用。     

Calculating the return value using a mathematical model of significant wave height

This study presents a new method for calculating return values. The essence of the method is that it utilizes nonstationary data to calculate the return value for a region in the Northeast Pacific. The nonstationary data was obtained from a model which was previously developed for the behavior of the significant wave height as a function of time in the region. The method is illustrated by convolving two generalized Pareto distribution functions fitted to two parts of the model, computing a suitable extreme value from the new distribution function, and calculating the return value using this extreme value.     

Discussion on the parameters of design waves

In order to respond the discredit on the design wave standard and to recommend new consideration on design wave parameters, based on the long-term distribution of statistic characteristics of waves and the short-term probability properties of sea state defined by giving the return period, the calculation of the return period, the height, the period, and the oceanic wave parameters of the design wave and the forecasting methods are discussed in this paper. To provide references for the operation reliability of floating structures in the extreme sea state, the method of determining the design wave parameters is resurveyed. A proposal is recommended that the design wave, which can be either significant wave with 500-year of the return period, or the maximum wave with 1/N of exceeding probability, 100-year of the return period, can be applied in the engineering design practice.     

吉布提LNG厂址波浪极值推算

在吉布提LNG厂址的设计过程中,由于当地可用水文资料缺乏,现场观测活动起步晚、持续时间短(仅1 a),无法满足多年重现期设计波浪要素推算的需求,给后续工作带来了较大的困难。以CCMP风场数据作为驱动,基于波作用量平衡方程建立印度洋大范围波浪数学模型、嵌套的亚丁湾中等范围模型及工程区小范围模型,在现场实测资料的基础上,结合同期的Jason卫星轨道资料对模型进行验证对比,模型验证结果良好。在此基础上,计算了1988—2017年的逐时波浪要素过程,并据此构建出年极值波浪序列,利用P-III型分布函数推算工程区深水处的各重现期波浪极值,结合不同水文条件计算得出工程区的设计波浪要素。     

海洋平台设计中的风浪参数选取标准

以我国渤海某区1970年至1993年风暴过程的后报资料为基础,提出了泊松二维冈贝尔逻辑分布,并将其用于风暴过程中伴生的风速与波高的联合概率计算,给出了美国石油协会(API)行业标准有关环境条件三种设计标准的具体做法.基于新的统计模式,同时提出了联合概率法设计标准.比较了多种标准所得设计参数的差异,给出了适合工程所在海区的环境荷载参数.计算结果表明,新的统计模式适用于遭受风暴影响的海洋工程结构设计,特别是边际油田的开发建设.     

Contribution of supposed wave condition on the long-term distribution of a wave-induced load

This report is concerned with the statistical analysis of the long-term distribution of a wave-induced load, and examines which factors influence the long-term distribution of the load level, e.g., the significant wave height, the mean wave period of the supposed wave condition, and the relative angle between the ship's course and the wave direction. The long-term distribution is broken down into these factors, and a contribution rate analysis method for each factor in each load level in the long-term distribution is introduced. Based on the method used, the contribution rate of a specific mean wave period and a wave angle encountered is clarified, when the long-term distribution is larger than other wave periods and wave angles. The specific mean wave period and wave angle encountered are defined as the wave condition which governs the long-term distribution. The maximum wave-induced load in the vicinity of a probability of exceedance of around 10⁻⁸ in the long-term distribution is decided by the most severe short-term wave condition which has the largest significant wave height with a specific mean wave period. Based on S–N curves and Miner's rule, the relation between the fatigue damage and the supposed wave condition is examined. The contribution rate analysis method for fatigue damage is introduced. The governing wave condition and the most severe short-term wave condition also have an important effect on the fatigue damage. A simple estimation method for the long-term distribution, described by the Weibull distribution from the statistical properties of the most severe short-term wave condition, is introduced. Several examples show the applicability of the estimation method. Received: November 22, 2001 / Accepted: January 9, 2002     

Efficient estimation of extreme long-term stresses by considering a combination of longitudinal bending stresses

Longitudinal stresses due to combined horizontal and vertical bending moments in ships, corresponding to a return period of 20 years, are estimated by linear response analysis. In principle, the stress should be obtained by combining the stress in all sea states that can occur over a long-term period. A method to determine the desired long-term extreme stress by considering only a few short-term sea states is presented. The sea states have a certain probability of occurrence, and are each identified by a contour line in the (H _s, T _p)-plane. This approach makes it possible to estimate the extreme loads on the vessel in a practical and accurate manner. Moreover, it is shown that the long-term stress can be estimated by combining the individual long-term extreme stresses due to vertical and horizontal bending moments by using the sum-of-squares approach and accounting for the correlation between stresses. It was found that the correlation coefficient can be taken as the largest of the ones calculated along the contour line. It is shown that this correlation coefficient can even be approximated by the normalized phase angle at the wave length where the dominant response has its peak value. A comparison with the results obtained using well-known combination rules is presented. While linear analysis has been used here, it is believed that the approach can be generalized to stresses with nonlinear behavior, and hence represent a significant improvement in calculation efficiency. Received: September 18, 2001 / Accepted: December 18, 2001     

复杂水域波浪物理模型与数学模型对比研究

基于MIKE21-BW模块,采用多种概化处理模型,研究了烟台港某工程港内波高分布和波浪传播状况。通过与物理模型进行对比,分析了各概化模型的优缺点,选择较优方案。结果表明:对于整个港池波高分布情况,各方案数学模型模拟结果和物理模型试验结果基本吻合,均能较好反映波高分布趋势及一些较复杂波浪传播变形现象。但其中存在多种波浪组合,同时包括波浪折射、反射、绕射、破碎、爬坡且反射波占主导地位的局部水域,数学模型模拟的波高数值都与物理模型结果相去甚远,说明MIKE21-BW仍不能很好模拟此类复杂波况水域。     

中外斜坡堤胸墙波浪力计算对比

斜坡堤胸墙对于减轻越浪危害至关重要,国内外各胸墙波浪力计算方法的结果差异较大。基于国内外几种斜坡堤胸墙波浪力计算方法,结合工程案例和试验数据进行对比研究。结果表明:1)特定条件下,我国规范计算的水平波浪力压强分布高度远小于Jensen法和Pedersen法结果,后两法计算结果与实测高度一致。2)Jensen法和Pedersen法计算的水平波浪力及浮托力均比国内港工方法大,也大于实测值。3)港工规范计算的总水平波浪力比实测值小,其计算出的浮托力与实测值较为接近。4)Jensen法考虑了掩护棱体肩台高度的作用,Pedersen法考虑了掩护棱体肩台高度与宽度的影响。此二法考虑得相对全面,但其按深水波长计算0.1%超越概率的波浪力,计算结果偏于保守。5)建议重要工程以模型试验结果为准。