对船舶操纵性标准的急迫需求——休斯敦水道实船操纵性试航的经验

我认为,造船师和轮机师考虑海上环境设计的船舶,它们99.9%的时间在海上渡过。但他们忘了,这些船舶还必须进入河道装卸货物。当某件引起公众高度关注的事故发生,船舶建造者或许会进入公众视线,发现他们犯有疏忽罪,要为建造了动力不足和操纵不良的船舶负责。一位引航员的观点国际     

Impact of Everyday Weather on Individual Daily Travel Behaviours in Perspective: A Literature Review

Despite the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on infrastructure development -- from roads, rail and airports to energy extraction and power networks to the Internet -- surprisingly little reliable knowledge exists about the performance of these investments in terms of actual costs, benefits and risks. This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost performance in transport infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 258 projects in 20 nations worth approximately US$90 billion (constant 1995 prices). The paper shows with overwhelming statistical significance that in terms of costs transport infrastructure projects do not perform as promised. The conclusion is tested for different project types, different geographical regions and different historical periods. Substantial cost escalation is the rule rather than the exception. For rail, average cost escalation is 45% (SD=38), for fixed links (tunnels and bridges) it is 34% (62) and for roads 20% (30). Cost escalation appears a global phenomenon, existing across 20 nations on five continents. Cost estimates have not improved and cost escalation not decreased over the past 70 years. Cost estimates used in decision-making for transport infrastructure development are highly, systematically and significantly misleading. Large cost escalations combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial risks. However, such risks are typically ignored or underplayed in decision-making, to the detriment of social and economic welfare.     

Do Road Planners Produce More ‘Honest Numbers’ than Rail Planners? An Analysis of Accuracy in Road‐traffic Forecasts in Cities versus Peripheral Regions

Abstract

Based on a review of available data from a database on large‐scale transport infrastructure projects, this paper investigates the hypothesis that traffic forecasts for road links in Europe are geographically biased with underestimated traffic volumes in metropolitan areas and overestimated traffic volumes in remote regions. The present data do not support this hypothesis. Since previous studies have shown a strong tendency to overestimated forecasts of the number of passengers on new rail projects, it could be speculated that road planners are more skilful and/or honest than rail planners. However, during the period when the investigated projects were planned (up to the late 1980s), there were hardly any strong incentives for road planners to make biased forecasts in order to place their projects in a more flattering light. Future research might uncover whether the change from the ‘predict and provide’ paradigm to ‘predict and prevent’ occurring in some European countries in the 1990s has influenced the accuracy of road traffic forecasts in metropolitan areas.     

Barriers to progress or windows of opportunity? A study in career path mapping in the maritime industries

The objective of the study was to provide, through a series of interviews with key personnel from a range of European Member States, an overview of the following:

Present and past vegetation in the high arctic, easternmost North Greenland and the relation to the Northeast Water Polynya

The extremely poor polar desert vegetation of a coastal belt along the polynya on Sophus Müller Nœs is described and compared with the richer vegetation of Amdrup Land approximately 30 km from the coast. A new delimitation of the polar deserts in Greenland is proposed. A core from the bottom of a lake in Amdrup Land gives evidence of an early Holocene period warmer than today.     

Evaluation of public transport: Method for application in open planning

This paper discusses a method to evaluate scheduled, fixed-route public transport. One major evaluation criterion in the method is total travel time, subdivided into walking time, waiting time, time on vehicle, transfer time, and concealed waiting time. The other major criterion is costs incurred by a given supply of transport. In contrast with conventional methods, this method operates with real measures, i.e. real location (instead of traffic zones), real time (instead of average travel time), and real costs (instead of proxy-costs). The purpose is to produce relevant and easily understandable results suitable to open planning, for instance planning with citizen participation. Five examples of application of the method are given: (1) evaluation of changes in suburban bus services; (2) evaluation of geographical localities as regards public transport; (3) evaluation of circular bus routes; (4) evaluation of flexible work hours versus fixed work hours and, finally; (5) production of user information on transport service.The research on evaluation of public transport was carried out in collaboration between Aalborg Municipality and the University of Aalborg 1980–1981. It was funded by the Department of Education, the University of Aarhus, Aalborg Municipality, the University of Aalborg's Data Centre and the University of Aalborg. The translation of this summary paper from Danish into English was funded and carried out by the Transport and Road Research Laboratories, Crowthorne, England.The paper summarizes: Bent Flyvbjerg, Kjeld Kahr, Peter Bo Petersen and Johs. Vibe-Petersen (1981).Evaluation of Public Transport — Method for Application in Open Planning. Vol. I & II. Aalborg University Press, Aalborg, 402 pp. In Danish.