Statistical mechanics for analytic planning: an application to domestic air traffic in China

Abstract

Statistical mechanics has shown its usefulness when assessing the topology of many networks, including those of infrastructure. Its principles take into account the large-scale and network-wide effects of changes in its key parameters, which in turn may provide critical input when planning for infrastructure projects. One objective would be to modify the pattern of capacity expansions inside a system to make it less exposed to local shortfalls in demand. To illustrate our point, we shall use domestic air traffic in China; airports are spatially distributed and they also need to respond to the potential demand that they face locally. Airlines that control parts of the traffic system are identified as agents. A relationship between the agent's behavior and the system-wide level of variance in traffic flows can be established by regression analysis. It is shown how intervention on these agents would reduce negative traffic variance while enhancing a more balanced, less costly growth of the system itself.     

Network structure,capacity growth and route hierarchies: the case of China’s air traffic system revisited

This paper examines air traffic patterns among China’s scheduled airlines in January 2006 and January 2011, using Official Airline Guide data on carrier schedules. The author classifies Chinese carriers into one of four classes. Airports are also organized into a classification scheme based on several criteria related to the total volume of traffic, the carriers serving the airports and the nature of the airports to which they are connected. Counts, sums, percentage shares and changes in these calculations between 2006 and 2011 are presented in tabular form. Inferences about the fundamental structure and future patterns of capacity growth for the yet not fully emerged Chinese air traffic system can be drawn.     

India’s air traffic: towards an empirical framework for systems analysis

The paper explores patterns of flows within India’s Air Traffic System through the lens of carriers’ networks and route structures between 2006 and 2014. Through observations of frequency distributions and their distinct patterns an analytic framework is derived heuristically by means of classification and aggregation. The well-known skewed traffic distribution which spatially concentrates traffic around relatively few airports serves as the starting point for decomposing the air traffic system (ATS) into its constituent route types. Airline operations along distinct route classes allows for classifying individual carrier’s network features as an embedded part of the system. Discussion of their role includes a spatial component. Inferences about development paths – past, present, future – of the Indian commercial ATS can be made.