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1.
ABSTRACTThe advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics. 相似文献
2.
A paper was published in the immediately previous issue of this journal describing a stated preference experiment examining how people are influenced in the selection of a departure time for a hypothetical trip to see a movie. The title was ‘A stated preference examination of time of travel choice for a recreational trip’, Volume 30(3):17–44. Numbers were used to indicate references in the text of the paper and in Table 1 accompanying the text, but these numbers were omitted from the list of references at the end of the paper - making it very difficult to identify specific citations. The list of references from the paper is reprinted below with the reference numbers included. This provides a listing that can be used in conjunction with the text of the paper and Table 1 as published to identify specific citations as intended. 相似文献
3.
4.
Shogo Nakasumi Katsuyuki Suzuki Daiji Fujii Hideomi Ohtsubo 《Journal of Marine Science and Technology》2003,7(4):180-188
This article presents a mixed method of analyzing shell elements and solid elements using the overlaying mesh method. In
the structural design of a ship's hull, the shell elements are used for the global model. However, the solid elements are
necessary to analyze the stress concentration zones or the vicinity of a crack. In such cases, the models are analyzed using
zooming analysis, in which the results of a global model analysis are transferred to a local model analysis by imposing boundary
conditions. This method is more advantageous than zooming analysis in terms of the accuracy of the solution and the modeling
flexibility. Some examples of a plate model with a cracked surface or with a projection are shown in order to demonstrate
the effectiveness of the method.
Received: August 6, 2002 / Accepted: November 25, 2002
Address correspondence to: S. Nakasumi (sumi@nasl.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp)
Updated from the Japanese original, which won the 2002 SNAJ prize (J Soc Nav Archit Jpn 2001;189:219–224; and 190:655–662) 相似文献
5.
Basic Analytical Study of Pantograph-catenary System Dynamics 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
T.X. Wu M.J. Brennan 《Vehicle System Dynamics: International Journal of Vehicle Mechanics and Mobility》1998,30(6):443-456
For a high speed electrical rail system, good dynamic performance of the pantograph-catenary system is vital for smooth and continuous current collection. It has been known for many years that to achieve this the head of the pantograph should be made as light as possible and the average stiffness of the catenary should be high. These conclusions, however, have been reached by numerical modelling and operational experience. In this paper the pantograph-catenary system is modelled as a time-varying, single degree-of-freedom system to facilitate an analytical investigation of the system dynamics. Although the model is very simple, it allows physical insight into the dynamic behaviour of the system, and because the excitation is parametric it also allows the stability of the system to be investigated. The finite element method is used to determine the catenary characteristics and Floquet theory is used to analyse the behaviour of the coupled system. 相似文献
6.
ZHU Hai-tao ZHANG Xu ZHANG Jia-tai HU Sheng-haiCollege of Mechanical Electrical Engineering Harbin Engineering University Harbin China 《船舶与海洋工程学报》2002,1(2):62-65
In this paper, a smart crank and slider mechanism is analyzed mostly from a dynamic view. By means of dynamic explicit finite element method, 3D nonlinear structure is simulated. It is proved that the mechanism can effectively accomplish smart movement prescribed. And in order to ensure reciprocal movement with higher frequency, measures should be taken to avoid over heating of parts. Compared with internal energy, kinetic energy of total rigid body is dominating, and Y direction equivalent rigid velocity is much higher than X direction velocity. Equivalent rigid velocity of all parts is consistent with respective movement condition. For both energy and velocity, slider effect is dominating. Three direction equivalent inertia force oscillates. Force amplitude in Y -direction is comparitively the greatest. 相似文献
7.
This paper presents the results of an investigation into temporal determinants of maritime accidents based on a data-set obtained from the proceedings of formal inquiries in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR). The results show that there is no statistically significant outcome between the probability for an accident and the time of watch. Thus the results do not confirm previous studies, which reported significant time of day effects.The outcome of this study indicates that marine inquiries can provide useful data for an analysis of underlying causes of maritime accidents. It is suggested that accident inquiries should be extended into the area of watch systems employed and should record the hours of work and of rest of the officers on the watch involved in a maritime accident. 相似文献
8.
C. Julian Parker 《WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs》2003,2(2):99-113
This article is in three parts. The first covers the historical development of qualifying associations. The second covers the particular role of maritime institutions that include The Royal Institution of Naval Architects, The Institute of Marine Engineering Science and Technology and The Nautical Institute. The third and final section considers the future for maritime professional associations in the context of international shipping. 相似文献
9.
The Straits of Malacca and Singapore are an important trade route linking the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea and Pacific Ocean. They are also rich in resources and support a range of activities that benefit the economies of the littoral states (Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore). This important shipping route is a very congested waterway and the authorities are keen to improve navigation facilities to promote ship safety and reduce the risk of groundings, collisions and accidents. This will also help to protect the marine environment from the effects of pollution and hence reduce its damaging impact on activities related to the Straits, e.g. fisheries and tourism. The Marine Electronic Highway (MEH) is an attempt to bring together maritime safety technologies and environmental management systems. The paper examines the costs of providing such a highway and considers some of the benefits which could accrue from its implementation. The analysis, conducted in the form of a cost-benefit study, clearly shows the economic viability of the scheme. 相似文献
10.
M.W. Sayers 《Vehicle System Dynamics: International Journal of Vehicle Mechanics and Mobility》1991,20(5):297-308
Vehicle offtracking behavior at low speeds is closely approximated by a geometric entity called a tractrix. This paper presents differential equations for generalized coordinates of a planar multibody vehicle model based on tractrix behavior. The equations are exact, can be used with any type of input path, are valid for forward and backward movements, and are much simpler than previously published formulations used to compute transient offtracking. The differential equations can be integrated using conventional numerical integration algorithms to obtain plots of the low-speed tracking performance of articulated vehicles. The equations were formulated symbolically by a computer program used to analyze the kinematic and dynamic behavior of multibody systems. Example numerical results are plotted. 相似文献