Sample size requirements for stated choice experiments

Stated choice (SC) experiments represent the dominant data paradigm in the study of behavioral responses of individuals, households as well as other organizations, yet in the past little has been known about the sample size requirements for models estimated from such data. Traditional orthogonal designs and existing sampling theories does not adequately address the issue and hence researchers have had to resort to simple rules of thumb or ignore the issue and collect samples of arbitrary size, hoping that the sample is sufficiently large enough to produce reliable parameter estimates, or are forced to make assumptions about the data that are unlikely to hold in practice. In this paper, we demonstrate how a recently proposed sample size computation can be used to generate so-called S-efficient designs using prior parameter values to estimate panel mixed multinomial logit models. Sample size requirements for such designs in SC studies are investigated. In a numerical case study is shown that a D-efficient and even more an S-efficient design require a (much) smaller sample size than a random orthogonal design in order to estimate all parameters at the level of statistical significance. Furthermore, it is shown that wide level range has a significant positive influence on the efficiency of the design and therefore on the reliability of the parameter estimates.     

Estimation and validation of a microscopic model for spatial economic effects of transport infrastructure

The spatial economic effects in integrated land use and transport models are increasingly disaggregate and can benefit from improved knowledge into the effect of accessibility and agglomeration on the spatial behaviour of firms. This article strives to contribute to this knowledge by first analysing the influence of accessibility and agglomeration on firm behaviour with exceptionally detailed firm data for the province of South Holland in The Netherlands. Next the added value of incorporating such effects in urban simulation models is tested with two series of validation runs with a microscopic model for firm dynamics.The presented Spatial Firm-demographic Micro-simulation (SFM) model simulates transitions and events in the firm population, including firm relocations, firm growth, firm dissolution and firm formation. Accessibility is measured with proximity to infrastructure access points and logsums of business and commuting trips from a transport model. Agglomeration measures are based on theories from urban economics and integrate travel time range bands into measures for specialisation and diversification. Estimation results confirm a significant influence of accessibility and agglomeration on the choice behaviour of firms. Application of these measures prove to increase the validity of the firm-demographic simulation model to a significant but modest extend.     

Experimental design influences on stated choice outputs: An empirical study in air travel choice

Discrete choice experiments are conducted in the transport field to obtain data for investigating travel behaviour and derived measures such as the value of travel time savings. The multinomial logit (MNL) and other more advanced discrete choice models (e.g., the mixed MNL model) have often been estimated on data from stated choice experiments and applied for planning and policy purposes. Determining efficient underlying experimental designs for these studies has become an increasingly important stream of research, in which the objective is to generate stated choice tasks that maximize the collected information, yielding more reliable parameter estimates. These theoretical advances have not been rigorously tested in practice, such that claims on whether the theoretical efficiency gains translate into practice cannot be made. Using an extensive empirical study of air travel choice behaviour, this paper presents for the first time results of different stated choice experimental design approaches, in which respective estimation results are compared. We show that D-efficient designs keep their promise in lowering standard errors in estimating, thereby requiring smaller sample sizes, ceteris paribus, compared to a more traditional orthogonal design. The parameter estimates found using an orthogonal design or an efficient design turn out to be statistically different in several cases, mainly attributed to more or less dominant alternatives existing in the orthogonal design. Furthermore, we found that small designs with a limited number of choice tasks performs just as good (or even better) than a large design. Finally, we show that theoretically predicted sample sizes using the so-called S-estimates provide a good lower bound. This paper will enable practitioners in better understanding the potential benefits of efficient designs, and enables policy makers to make decisions based on more reliable parameter estimates.     

Genetics of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning

This paper presents a review and classification of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning purposes by using concepts analogous to genetics in biology. Traffic assignment models share the same theoretical framework (DNA), but differ in capability (genes). We argue that all traffic assignment models can be described by three genes. The first gene determines the spatial capability (unrestricted, capacity restrained, capacity constrained, and capacity and storage constrained) described by four spatial assumptions (shape of the fundamental diagram, capacity constraints, storage constraints, and turn flow restrictions). The second gene determines the temporal capability (static, semi-dynamic, and dynamic) described by three temporal assumptions (wave speeds, vehicle propagation speeds, and residual traffic transfer). The third gene determines the behavioural capability (all-or-nothing, one shot, and equilibrium) described by two behavioural assumptions (decision-making and travel time consideration). This classification provides a deeper understanding of the often implicit assumptions made in traffic assignment models described in the literature. It further allows for comparing different models in terms of functionality, and paves the way for developing novel traffic assignment models.     

A review on travel behaviour modelling in dynamic traffic simulation models for evacuations

Dynamic traffic simulation models are frequently used to support decisions when planning an evacuation. This contribution reviews the different (mathematical) model formulations underlying these traffic simulation models used in evacuation studies and the behavioural assumptions that are made. The appropriateness of these behavioural assumptions is elaborated on in light of the current consensus on evacuation travel behaviour, based on the view from the social sciences as well as empirical studies on evacuation behaviour. The focus lies on how travellers’ decisions are predicted through simulation regarding the choice to evacuate, departure time choice, destination choice, and route choice. For the evacuation participation and departure time choice we argue in favour of the simultaneous approach to dynamic evacuation demand prediction using the repeated binary logit model. For the destination choice we show how further research is needed to generalize the current preliminary findings on the location-type specific destination choice models. For the evacuation route choice we argue in favour of hybrid route choice models that enable both following instructed routes and en-route switches. Within each of these discussions, we point at current limitations and make corresponding suggestions on promising future research directions.     

Control of a hydraulically actuated continuously variable transmission

Vehicular drivelines with hierarchical powertrain control require good component controller tracking, enabling the main controller to reach the desired goals. This paper focuses on the development of a transmission ratio controller for a hydraulically actuated metal push-belt continuously variable transmission (CVT), using models for the mechanical and the hydraulic part of the CVT. The controller consists of an anti-windup PID feedback part with linearizing weighting and a setpoint feedforward. Physical constraints on the system, especially with respect to the hydraulic pressures, are accounted for using a feedforward part to eliminate their undesired effects on the ratio. The total ratio controller guarantees that one clamping pressure setpoint is minimal, avoiding belt slip, while the other is raised above the minimum level to enable shifting. This approach has potential for improving the efficiency of the CVT, compared to non-model based ratio controllers. Vehicle experiments show that adequate tracking is obtained together with good robustness against actuator saturation. The largest deviations from the ratio setpoint are caused by actuator pressure saturation. It is further revealed that all feedforward and compensator terms in the controller have a beneficial effect on minimizing the tracking error.     

Accounting for travel time variability in the optimal pricing of cars and buses

A number of studies have shown that in addition to travel time and cost as the common influences on mode, route and departure time choices, travel time variability plays an increasingly important role, especially in the presence of traffic congestion on roads and crowding on public transport. The dominant focus of modelling and implementation of optimal pricing that incorporates trip time variability has been in the context of road pricing for cars. The main objective of this paper is to introduce a non-trivial extension to the existing literature on optimal pricing in a multimodal setting, building in the role of travel time variability as a source of disutility for car and bus users. We estimate the effect of variability in travel time and bus headway on optimal prices (i.e., tolls for cars and fares for buses) and optimal bus capacity (i.e., frequencies and size) accounting for crowding on buses, under a social welfare maximisation framework. Travel time variability is included by adopting the well-known mean–variance model, using an empirical relationship between the mean and standard deviation of travel times. We illustrate our model with an application to a highly congested corridor with cars, buses and walking as travel alternatives in Sydney, Australia. There are three main findings that have immediate policy implications: (i) including travel time variability results in higher optimal car tolls and substantial increases in toll revenue, while optimal bus fares remain almost unchanged; (ii) when bus headways are variable, the inclusion of travel time variability as a source of disutility for users yields higher optimal bus frequencies; and (iii) including both travel time variability and crowding discomfort leads to higher optimal bus sizes.     

Pruning and ranking the Pareto optimal set,application for the dynamic multi‐objective network design problem

Solving the multi‐objective network design problem (MONDP) resorts to a Pareto optimal set. This set can provide additional information like trade‐offs between objectives for the decision making process, which is not available if the compensation principle would be chosen in advance. However, the Pareto optimal set of solutions can become large, especially if the objectives are mainly opposed. As a consequence, the Pareto optimal set may become difficult to analyze and to comprehend. In this case, pruning and ranking becomes attractive to reduce the Pareto optimal set and to rank the solutions to assist the decision maker. Because the method used, may influence the eventual decisions taken, it is important to choose a method that corresponds best with the underlying decision process and is in accordance with the qualities of the data used. We provided a review of some methods to prune and rank the Pareto optimal set to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of these methods. The methods are applied using the outcome of solving the dynamic MONDP in which minimizing externalities of traffic are the objectives, and dynamic traffic management measures are the decision variables. For this, we solved the dynamic MONDP for a realistic network of the city Almelo in the Netherlands using the non‐dominated sorting genetic algorithm II. For ranking, we propose to use a fuzzy outranking method that can take uncertainties regarding the data quality and the perception of decision makers into account; and for pruning, a method that explicitly reckons with significant trade‐offs has been identified as the more suitable method to assist the decision making process. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling Externalities using Dynamic Traffic Assignment Models: A Review

Recently, there has been a growing interest in externalities in our society, mainly in the context of climate and air quality, which are of importance when policy decisions are made. For the assessment of externalities in transport, often the output of static traffic assignment models is used in combination with so-called effect models. Due to the rapidly increasing possibilities of using dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models for large-scale transportation networks and the application of traffic measures, already several models have been developed to assess the externalities using DTA models more precisely. Different research projects have shown that there is a proven relation between the traffic dynamics and externalities, such as emissions of pollutants and traffic safety. This means that the assessment of external effects can be improved by using temporal information about flow, speed and density, which is the output of DTA models. In this paper, the modelling of traffic safety, emissions and noise in conjunction with DTA models is reviewed based on an extensive literature survey. This review shows that there are still gaps in knowledge in assessing traffic safety, much research is available concerning emissions, and although little research has been conducted concerning the assessment of noise using DTA models, the methods available can be used to assess the effects. Most research so far has focused on the use of microscopic models, while mesoscopic or macroscopic models may have a high potential for improving the assessment of these effects for larger networks.     

Network reliability‐based optimal toll design

Optimal toll design from a network reliability point of view is addressed in this paper. Improving network reliability is proposed as a policy objective of road pricing. A reliability‐based optimal toll design model, where on the upper level network performance including travel time reliability is optimized, while on the lower level a dynamic user‐equilibrium is achieved, is presented. Road authorities aim to optimize network travel time reliability by setting tolls in a network design problem. Travelers are influenced by these tolls and make route and trip decisions by considering travel times and tolls. Network performance reliability is analyzed for a degradable network with elastic and fluctuated travel demand, which integrates reliability and uncertainty, dynamic network equilibrium models, and Monte Carlo methods. The proposed model is applied to a small hypothesized network for which optimal tolls are derived. The network travel time reliability is indeed improved after implementing optimal tolling system. Trips may have a somewhat higher, but more reliable, travel time.