A GA-based household scheduler

One way of making activity-based travel analysis operational for transport planning is multi-agent micro-simulation. Modelling activity and trip generation based on individual and social characteristics are central steps in this method. The model presented here generates complete daily activity schedules based on the structure of a household and its members’ activity calendars. The model assumes that the household is another basic decision-making unit for travel demand aside from individual mobility needs. Results of the model are schedules containing complete information about activity type and sequence, locations, and means of transportation, as well as activity start times and durations. The generated schedules are the outcome of a probabilistic optimisation using genetic algorithms. This iterative method improves solutions found in a random search according to the specification of a fitness criterion, which equals utility here. It contains behavioural assumptions about individuals as well as the household level. Individual utility is derived from the number of activities and their respective durations. It is reduced by costs of travelling and penalties for late, respectively early arrival. The household level is represented directly by the utility of joint activities, and indirectly by allocation of activities and means of transportation to household members. The paper presents initial tests with a three-person household, detailing resulting schedules, and discussing run-time experiences. A sensitivity analysis of the joint utility parameter impact is also included.     

A tour-based model of travel mode choice

This paper presents a new tour-based mode choice model. The model is agent-based: both households and individuals are modelled within an object-oriented, microsimulation framework. The model is household-based in that inter-personal household constraints on vehicle usage are modelled, and the auto passenger mode is modelled as a joint decision between the driver and the passenger(s) to ride-share. Decisions are modelled using a random utility framework. Utility signals are used to communicate preferences among the agents and to make trade-offs among competing demands. Each person is assumed to choose the best combination of modes available to execute each tour, subject to auto availability constraints that are determined at the household level. The households allocations of resources (i.e., cars to drivers and drivers to ride-sharing passengers) are based on maximizing overall household utility, subject to current household resource levels. The model is activity-based: it is designed for integration within a household-based activity scheduling microsimulator. The model is both chain-based and trip-based. It is trip-based in that the ultimate output of the model is a chosen, feasible travel mode for each trip in the simulation. These trip modes are, however, determined through a chain-based analysis. A key organizing principle in the model is that if a car is to be used on a tour, it must be used for the entire chain, since the car must be returned home at the end of the tour. No such constraint, however, exists with respect to other modes such as walk and transit. The paper presents the full conceptual model and estimation results for an initial empirical prototype. Because of the complex nature of the model decision structure, choice probabilities are simulated from direct generation of random utilities rather than through an analytical probability expression.     

Evaluation,prioritization and selection of transportation investment projects in New York City

Over the last decade, a large number of high capital cost transportation projects have been proposed for the New York City Region. Many have resulted from addressing evolving capacity needs, changes in regional demographics and economics, meeting the improvements necessitated by operating century old subway systems and recognizing the impact of moving freight in a dense region. But the catalyst for bringing all of these projects to the attention of the public and all regional agencies was the tragedy of September 11, 2001. While these projects entail massive investments ($50–$60 billion), little analytical work has been carried out to measure the transportation and economic costs and benefits they entail and to categorize them accordingly. Competition among agencies to secure adequate resources to implement any of the desired projects makes such analysis necessary; yet there still remain political, vested economic interests and agency rivalry barriers to achieving this important planning objective. This paper reports the methodological approach taken by these authors for consistent and transparent project evaluation and then presents results from the ranking and prioritizing methodology. The policy underpinnings and implications of the analysis are discussed in a subsequent paper and thus only briefly touched upon here in the concluding section.     

Time series for sea water and seaweed of Tc and Sb originating from releases at La Hague

⁹⁹Tc and ¹²⁵Sb have been released in low level liquid waste at the reprocessing plant at La Hague (Fr). Over a number of years data have been obtained on the concentration of ⁹⁹Tc in sea water and in seaweed from sampling locations close to and at increasing distances north and east of the point of release into the English Channel.In addition such data have been obtained on ¹²⁵Sb for a small number of sampling points. These time series, and the information derived from their intercomparison and from comparison with the release data, are presented in this paper.Time series on ⁹⁹Tc as well as ¹²⁵Sb in sea water and seaweed clearly confirm a considerable decrease in release rates at La Hague over the years 1986–1993. Transit times and transfer factors derived from the series are generally in good agreement with the results of modelling efforts. The data do not provide evidence for a time lag between levels of the radionuclides in sea water and those in seaweed longer than a few months.The very high concentration factors for ⁹⁹Tc in brown seaweeds make these seaweeds very useful for environmental monitoring the radionuclide at low release rates and to trace releases in areas remote from the point of release.     

Rule-based optimization of midship structures

A rule-based overall design methodology for midship structures of small inland waterways vessels is presented. It is shown how the designer, under conflicting requirements, can select the optimum design by using a combined objective function with priority factors assigned to individual design criteria. The concept of optimization, in large-scale structural design problems, is extended to the local members (the stiffening elements) of the ship structure, so that the stiffeners can be specified by their actual dimensions instead of section moduli. The effects of price-structure (labour rate to material price ratio) and the choice of type of stiffener on design are investigated. Standard sections and optimized fabricated sections are taken as the alternative options for selecting the stiffeners. Conversion of exact mathematical optimum solutions into production-oriented designs is also demonstrated in a series of practical applications of the proposed method.     

Post OPA-90 vessel oil spill differentials: transfers versus vessel accidents

This study investigates vessel oil spill differentials for transfer and vessel-accident spills for the post Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA-90) period. In-water and out-of-water transfer/vessel-accident oil spill equations are estimated, utilizing tobit regression analysis and data of individual vessel oil spills (of oil-cargo and non-oil-cargo vessels) investigated by the US Coast Guard for the 1991-1995 period. In the data, 47.5% (94.1%) of in-water (out-of-water) gallons of oil spilled were transfer spills; non-oil-cargo vessels accounted for 44.2% of all gallons spilled. The estimation results suggest that out-of-water transfer spills are larger in size than vessel-accident spills, but are similar in size for in-water spills. Transfer/vessel-accident spill differentials exist (do not exist) among determinants of in-water (out-of-water) spills. The policy implication of the results is that a vessel oil spill-reduction differentiation regulatory regime is needed that differentiates between transfer and vessel-accident spills and in-water and out-of-water spills for reducing vessel oil spills.     

Patterns of car usage and restraint modelling

Transport demand forecasting procedures have traditionally employed household based modal split models implicitly assuming a selection of mode for each trip based on relative generalised cost. A detailed examination of the trip patterns of a sample of household in West Yorkshire shows that in fact there is little discretionary choice of public transport; public transport trips in car owning households generally being explained in terms of the specific unavailability of the car for such trips. Two versions of a category analysis model for modal split are based on this observation and applied to household data for Glamorgan and Monmouthshire to show that such a procedure is workable and produces results comparing favourably with traditional approaches. The likely implications of three types of restraint policy are examined and it is concluded that the existing interdependence in trip patterns and modal choice within the household is of great significance in determining their effects. In particular it appears that positive attempts to increase vehicle occupancy at the peak are likely to be more favourable to public transport finances than the more negative policies to restrain use of the car for journey to work, or second car ownership.     

Estimating gravity model parameters: A simplified approach based on the odds ratio

Two computationally simple methods for calibrating the gravity model are presented in this paper. The use of each is demonstrated on several origin-destination trip tables, and the results compared with those obtained from the UTP system gravity model calibration procedure. Our methods, based on the odds ratio, perform at least as well as that of UTP system by several standard criteria.     

An Investigation of the Origins of Vibration of an Automobile Rear Axle

An investigation was carried out to determine the origins of vibration of an automobile rear axle with the object of establishing the significance of road-surface-induced vibratory inputs. This was achieved by measuring the vibratory acceleration of the rear axle of an automobile as it traverses straight sections of typically paved roads, at uniform speeds, then comparing the results with those obtained by laboratory simulation.

The investigation revealed significant levels of vertical, longitudinal and, to a much lesser extent, lateral vibrations. The main source of vertical vibrations is shown to be induced mainly by vertical displacements imposed by the road-surface irregularities on the vehicle tyres. The longitudinal and lateral components are shown to be induced mainly by the engine and the drive-line (including tyre/wheel assemblies) as well as due to coupling between the vertical, longitudinal and lateral motions of the rear axle imposed by the geometry of the rear axle suspension.     

Network equilibrium for congested multi‐mode networks with elastic demand

This paper proposes an elastic demand network equilibrium model for networks with transit and walking modes. In Hong Kong, the multi‐mode transit system services over 90% of the total journeys and the demand on it is continuously increasing. Transit and walking modes are related to each other as transit passengers have to walk to and from transit stops. In this paper, the multi‐mode elastic‐demand network equilibrium problem is formulated as a variational inequality problem where the combined mode and route choices are modeled in a hierarchical logit structures and the total travel demand for each origin‐destination pair is explicitly given by an elastic demand function. In addition, the capacity constraint for transit vehicles and the effects of bi‐directional flows on walkways are considered in the proposed model. All these congestion effects are taken into account for modeling the travel choices. A solution algorithm is developed to solve the multi‐mode elastic‐demand network equilibrium model. It is based on a Block Gauss‐Seidel decomposition approach coupled with the method of successive averages. A numerical example is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model and solution algorithm.