Confidence bounds on structural reliability estimations for offshore platforms

Second-order estimates to measure platform reliability are generated and used to provide an additional space to select safety margins appropriate to the owner's perception or for risk-averse managers. The aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the parameters of an offshore platform are explicitly considered in the reliability analysis and the platform structural reliability becomes a random variable, assessing then the beneficial effects of a reduction on these uncertainties. One of these benefits is for risk-aversive managers who often demand additional room to make conservative decisions regarding reliability estimations. Proposed here is a procedure to generate the frequency diagram of platform reliability with the use of confidence bounds to support reliability and cost decisions based on percentiles instead of mean values. The concepts are illustrated through a typical offshore platform in Mexico. The frequency diagram of the platform reliability index is built for several alternative designs and three levels of epistemic uncertainty. The results may be applied for decision making on new designs and also on the assessment and optimal inspection, retrofit, and decommissioning of existing platforms.     

Automotive transmission efficiency measurement using a chassis dynamometer

Automotive transmission efficiency measurements are usually performed on purpose-built rigs. A simple model was developed for calculating the overall transmission efficiency of passenger cars by using a chassis dynamometer. Wheel power and engine output were measured, and these values were used for calculations. The proposed method can only be employed for vehicles with manual drive because it requires constant speed measurements. Two case studies were investigated, with front-wheel and rear-wheel drive passenger cars. The results obtained from using the proposed model are in good agreement with data provided in the literature.     

应用于国Ⅲ摩托车的富钯涂层配方的研究

通过对不同催化作用涂层的对比，特别是针对小型摩托车活性、耐久性和贵金属成本的应用设计，提出以钯为主要或单一活性贵金属化合物涂料的研究数据，这些数据是通过使用合成气体反应器，对涂敷后的催化剂进行模拟发动机废气测试得到的。通过试验表明，较低成本的富钯催化涂料可用于小型摩托车的有效减排。此外，在110mL缸头补气与125mL中间补气摩托车上，按照摩托车欧Ⅲ和国Ⅲ排放法规运行ECER40冷起动循环，对不同配方催化剂的活性进行了测试，这些结果将与合成气体反应器测试结果相关联。     

Issues in the integration of active control turbochargers with internal combustion engines

The application of active control means to regulate the flow of exhaust gas in a turbocharger turbine is a concept developed by the Turbomachinery Group at Imperial College, London. It is a new concept the first results of which were made public in 2004. This paper presents the theoretical grounding behind the idea, its development and the elements required for a successful implementation of active control for a turbocharger turbine and the integration of such a turbocharger system within an internal combustion engine. This paper is intended to fill a gap in the theoretical understanding of the issues pertaining to the concept of Active Control for Turbocharger Turbines. The discussion is led towards a theory summarising the flow physics and their effect on the behaviour of the exhaust gas flow occurring during turbocharger turbine inlet geometrical changes and the implications from the periodic nature of these geometric changes in particular with respect to cycle performance results both for the turbocharger and for the engine. This paper is written with the purpose of presenting a realistic context of ACT operation by identifying and considering those parameters relevant to the operation and successful application of ACT to an internal combustion engine. In addition, the requirements for a dedicated ACT control strategy which can be effective in the ACT-engine integrated environment are, also, highlighted.     

Climate–ocean variability and Pacific hake: A geostatistical modeling approach

Climate forcing of the California Current has been known to impact the distribution and abundance of a number of local fish populations, but the mechanisms involved remain poorly understood. Climate metrics such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are usually used to represent climate processes and direct links are made between climate forcing and production variability. This involves aggregation of impacts across large spatial scales and range of species. However, fluctuations in productivity are often the result of changes in physical habitat. In order to fully understand the relationship between climate and productivity, habitat changes should be addressed. In this study we use a geostatistical approach to quantify adult Pacific hake habitat during different climate regimes. Several authors have suggested that the distribution and intensity of the sub-surface poleward flow (the undercurrent) plays a key role in defining adult hake habitat along the west coast of North America. Here we build a model designed to predict hake habitat distribution in space based on sub-surface poleward flow distribution and bottom depth. Our results show that hake habitat expands in 1998 El Niño year compared to 1995. Given the important predatory role that hake plays in the CC, the amount and distribution of adult hake habitat has large implications for the Pacific Northwest food web and could thus serve as an ecosystem indicator representing important physical–biological interactions. Spatially based ecosystem indicators such as the one we develop here address two important yet neglected areas in the ‘Ecosystem Indicators debate’: the importance of developing metrics explicitly representing spatial and environmental processes shaping ecosystem structure. Without these, our power to fully describe ecosystems will be limited.     

独柱墩桥梁抗倾覆稳定性分析

以某高速公路立交四跨一联独柱曲线连续箱梁桥为背景,基于《公路钢筋混凝土及预应力混凝土桥涵设计规范》(JTG 3362-2018)对桥梁抗倾覆的相关规定进行研究.利用Midas Civil建立桥梁有限元模型,分析该桥的抗倾覆稳定性,并研究了联端支座间距、中支座外偏心距及温度效应对独柱墩桥梁倾覆稳定性的影响.结果表明,增大联端支座间距、设置合理中支座外偏心距可有效提升桥梁抗倾覆能力;温度效应在独柱墩梁桥抗倾覆设计验算中不可忽视.     

Application of a SEEK filter to a 1D biogeochemical model of the Ligurian Sea: Twin experiments and real in-situ data assimilation

The Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter has been implemented to assimilate in-situ data in a 1D coupled physical-ecosystem model of the Ligurian Sea. The biogeochemical model describes the partly decoupled nitrogen and carbon cycles of the pelagic food web. The GHER hydrodynamic model (1D version) is used to represent the physical forcings. The data assimilation scheme (SEEK filter) parameterizes the error statistics by means of a set of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Twin experiments are first performed with the aim to choose the suitable experimental protocol (observation and estimation vectors, number of EOFs, frequency of the assimilation,…) and to assess the SEEK filter performances. This protocol is then applied to perform real data assimilation experiments using the DYFAMED data base. By assimilating phytoplankton observations, the method has allowed to improve not only the representation of the phytoplankton community, but also of other variables such as zooplankton and bacteria that evolve with model dynamics and that are not corrected by the data assimilation scheme. The validation of the assimilation method and the improvement of model results are studied by means of suitable error measurements.     

Late Holocene history of the rainfall in the NW Iberian peninsula—Evidence from a marine record

This study reconstructs climatic variability over the last 4700 yr in the NW Iberian Peninsula on the basis of lithological, sedimentological, biogeochemical, micropaleontological (diatoms and biosiliceous compounds) and AMS ¹⁴C analyses conducted in a gravity core retrieved from the Galician continental shelf. The core was recovered at the Galicia Mud Patch, a muddy sedimentary body highly influenced by the terrestrial supply of the Miño and Douro rivers, and thus controlled by the rainfall variations over the catchment area. River plume transports the lithogenic and continental-derived compounds to the shelf area allowing us to recognize several periods of terrestrial/marine influence. These periods are well correlated with the lithological units identified. Coarser sediments, high values of Ca/Al, low values of Fe, Al and lithogenic Si (LSi) are representative of the marine-influenced periods. These stages are related to dry conditions and winds coming from the NE under a NAO positive-like phase.Terrestrial-influenced stages are characterized by muddy sediments, with high content of Fe, Al and LSi, freshwater and benthic diatoms, continental-derived organisms (crysophycean cysts and phytoliths) and high amount of land-derived organic matter as reported by the C/N ratios. The influence of NAO positive- and NAO negative-like periods and solar activity are the two mechanisms quoted to explain the climatic variability during the last 4700 years.Proxies for the lithogenic input and terrigenous content (non-organic material) show an increase at around 2000–1800 cal. yr BP, linked to the warmer conditions and high precipitation patterns during the Roman Warm Period, and soil erosion due to forest degradation and other anthropic activities. A strong river flow event is recorded in shelf sediments during 800–500 cal. yr BP. A pervasive NAO negative-like period, and the high irradiance registered during the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) controlled the precipitation and induced a high run-off and riverine influx during this event.     

An ensemble approach for conflict detection in Free Flight by data mining

Airborne separation assurance is a key requirement for Free Flight operations. A variety of conflict detection (CD) and resolution algorithms have been developed for this task. A lack of rigorous evaluation and the existence of an infinite number of possible conflict geometries in Free Flight makes the choice of which algorithm to be placed in the cockpit a challenging task for the designers of future air traffic management (ATM) systems. In this paper, we propose an ensemble approach for CD in Free Flight. The ensemble consists of several CD algorithms, a rule set for each algorithm describing its learned behavior from its past performance and a switch mechanism to choose an appropriate CD algorithm given probe characteristics. A novel mechanism to evolve complex conflict scenarios, using genetic algorithms (GA), is developed and integrated in a fast time air traffic simulator to generate the performance data of CD algorithms. Data mining techniques are then employed to identify implicit patterns in the probe characteristics where the CD algorithms missed or falsely identified a conflict. These patterns are formulated as rule sets for each CD algorithm and are then used by a switch in the ensemble to route a probe for conflict prediction. Given probe characteristics, the CD algorithm, which is less likely to miss or falsely identify a conflict, is selected to evaluate the probe for potential conflict. The performance of the ensemble and of individual algorithms is evaluated by comparing the Pareto efficient set of solutions generated by them. The ensemble approach demonstrates a significant reduction in the number of missed detects and false alarms as compared to individual algorithms. The proposed methodology is capable of accommodating existing as well as new CD models and can be extended to other ATM concepts as well.