Rapid first-stage tests of on-ship infection

Protection against on-ship infectious disease—whether due to mishap or to harmful purpose—faces special situational problems. Sometimes, when infection levels on board have reached threshold levels, emergency actions are required. Often, the most thorough strategies for responding to threat are not feasible. A rapid first-stage test (RFT) is a fast, minimally invasive procedure used to rule out from possible infection a large percentage of an infection-threatened group. Prevention and control of on-ship infection need to combine various interconnected tactics. When timely criterion tests are not possible, the medical team must adopt fast alternative measures. The methods used to summarize protection against on-ship infectious agents included a scientific literature review and a web search. The fields of the review were maritime, health, and technology sources. Special attention was paid to material dealing with risks and threats of on-ship penetration by infectious agents, on-ship infection prevalence thresholds, and rapid diagnostic screens. The Bayes rule and the law of large numbers were applied to the analysis, for large on-ship populations, of RFT indications of crossing of an infection prevalence threshold. The increasing risk of serious on-ship infection—either accidental or purposeful—calls for a multi-layered protection approach. RFTs are a key part of the outer layer of such a defense. Well-designed and well-administered RFTs provide several advantages for defense against on-ship infection: low-cost, non-invasive, fast, and focuses on a drastically smaller number of infection possibilities.     

Northern Abalone: Using an Invertebrate to Focus Marine Conservation Ideas and Values

Marine invertebrate species have usually been overlooked in favor of high-profile vertebrate species for facilitating dialogue towards area conservation. The northern abalone (Haliotis kamtschatkana) is proposed as a focal ("flagship") species whose protection and recovery could concentrate public concern for abalone and its associated kelp forest ecosystems in Haida Gwaii (Queen Charlotte Islands), British Columbia. I explain how issues of culture, commerce, and conservation unite to create a strong role for northern abalone in preparations for creating a large marine conservation area within Haida Gwaii. Culture is relevant, as local indigenous people (the Haida) are currently denied access to constitutionally established subsistence fishing rights for northern abalone. Commerce is involved as ongoing kelp forest-associated fisheries co-occur with northern abalone. Finally, this is a challenging precedent in Canadian marine conservation, as restoring two "listed" species- at risk (northern abalone and their predator, the sea otter (Enhydra lutris)) is potentially mutually exclusive. As part of the forthcoming public consultations towards establishing a marine conservation area, the opportunity provided by northern abalone to focus ideas and values should be seized.     

The Geometrical Contact between Track and Wheelset

In previous publications the author has described a so-called first-order theory for the motion of a railway vehicle wheelset on a tangent track. In the present report the geometrical aspect of this theory is further evaluated and a method for solving the constraint equations between the coordinates of the wheelset is indicated.     

Fatigue damage calculation for oil tanker and container ship structures

The fatigue behaviour of longitudinal stiffeners of oil tankers and container ships, subjected to dynamic loads, is analysed. The following dynamic load components are considered: hull girder vertical wave bending moment, alone and combined with the horizontal wave bending moment, hydrodynamic pressure and inertial forces caused by cargo acceleration.

The spectral method was selected to calculate the fatigue damage, based on S—N curves and Miner's rule. Following this approach, the fatigue damage may be calculated as a function of a stress parameter Ω_p, which represents the cumulative effect of wave induced loads in the unit of time and incorporates the combined effects of stress level and its occurring frequency.

Simple formulas for Ω_p of oil tankers and container ships are given, obtained from the results of hydrodynamic analyses performed on several ships, in different wave environments.

Several examples show the applicability of the methods to real ship structures. The method, however, still needs to be calibrated because of the simplifying hypotheses introduced in the loading conditions.     

Vehicle Energy Dissipation Due to Road Roughness

Road roughness and surface texture are known to affect tire rolling resistance; however, little emphasis has been placed on the consequent changes in total vehicle energy dissipation due to road roughness. Thus, tire rolling resistance, in isolation from vehicle contributed losses such as dissipation in the suspension, appears to be a weakness in present evaluation procedures as they relate to fuel economy and pollution level testing: Recent work by Funfsinn and Korst has shown that substantial and measurable increases in energy losses occur for vehicles traveling on rough roads. The present investigation uses vehicle axle accelerations as a means of examining various road surfaces. Correlation with computer simulations has allowed the development of a deterministic road roughness model which permits the prediction of energy dissipation in both the tire and suspension as functions of road roughness, tire pressure, and vehicle speed. Comparison to the experiments of Korst and Funfsinn results in good agreement and shows that total rolling loss increases of up to 20 percent compared to ideal smooth roads are possible. The aerodynamic drag coefficient is also found to increase while driving on rough roads.     

An application of variance reduction techniques in freeway simulation

Computer simulation models are used in a variety of applications in transportation engineering and have become a prime aid in decision making. The applications range from evaluating traffic control strategies for single intersections to such complex decision processes as evaluating the impact of removing toll facilities at the George Washington Bridge in New York City. While it is widely accepted that simulation offers an unmatchable capability of evaluating alternate control policies, the high variance of the output variable presents a critical problem in such comparative analyses. The simulation models with high output variance must be run longer or replicated many times to achieve a desired precision level, and that corresponds to increased cost of computer resources. This paper describes and illustrates the application of variance reduction concepts that can improve the reliability and efficiency of the simulation experimental process by taking advantage of the simulation model structure. The two variance reduction concepts (common random numbers and antithetic variates) reduce the variance of the output variable by replacing the original sampling procedure with a new procedure that yields the same expected value but with a smaller variance. The application of the variance reduction concept was illustrated using results from experiments with a freeway simulation model. The results indicate that both common random numbers and antithetic variates sampling procedures appreciably reduce the variance of the simulation output measure.     

Home-based trip end models — A comparison between category analysis and regression analysis procedures

The trip end models which have been used in past transportation studies are briefly summarised. Problems associated with the use of zone-based models are outlined and reasons are given to support the development of models at the household rather than zonal level.It is suggested that recent developments which have taken place in household-based models have not been entirely logical. In particular, arguments between regression models and category analysis models have been confused with the use of aggregate (zonal) as against disaggregate (household) data — regression models being associated with the use of zonal data and category analysis models with household data. Misunderstood arguments and false notions regarding sample sizes have directed attention from the regression analysis approach.A detailed comparison of the category analysis and regression analysis methods for developing household-based trip end models is given. Both methods have been applied using data from the Monmouthshire Land Use Transportation Study. The regression results reported are from a very preliminary analysis and contain a number of anomalies, although it is thought that sufficient work has been done to provide an objective evaluation of the two methods.It is recommended that the household regression approach should be further investigated since it has advantages as a modelbuilding procedure and makes better use of sample data. A certain amount of categorisation of household types is necessary and the investigations would attempt to determine the best balance between categorisation and regression fitting. Further development will be restricted if the trend towards minimum sample sizes of about 1000 households is continued. Larger samples should be taken in certain circumstances to pursue development work.     

RMS Values of Force, Stroke and Tyre Deflection in a Half-Car Model with Preview Controlled Active Suspension

Summary Matrix expressions are developed for the direct computation of rms values for the optimal control forces, front and rear suspension strokes and dynamic tyre deflections in a half-car model on a random road of given roughness. A quadratic performance index is employed with assumed weighting factors and evaluated in the same computation.