Short-term Hourly Traffic Forecasts using Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census

The need for acquiring the current-year traffic data is a problem for transport planners since such data may not be available for on-going transport studies. A method is proposed in this paper to predict hourly traffic flows up to and into the near future, using historical data collected from the Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census (ATC). Two parametric and two non-parametric models have been employed and evaluated in this study. The results show that the non-parametric models (Non-Parametric Regression (NPR) and Gaussian Maximum Likelihood (GML)) were more promising for predicting hourly traffic flows at the selected ATC station. Further analysis encompassing 87 ATC stations revealed that the NPR is likely to react to unexpected changes more effectively than the GML method, while the GML model performs better under steady traffic flows. Taking into consideration the dynamic nature of the common traffic patterns in Hong Kong and the advantages/disadvantages of the various models, the NPR model is recommended for predicting the hourly traffic flows in that region.     

Dual extended Kalman filter for vehicle state and parameter estimation

The article demonstrates the implementation of a model-based vehicle estimator, which can be used for combined estimation of vehicle states and parameters. The estimator is realised using the dual extended Kalman filter (DEKF) technique, which makes use of two Kalman filters running in parallel, thus 'splitting' the state and parameter estimation problems. Note that the two problems cannot be entirely separated due to their inherent interdependencies. This technique provides several advantages, such as the possibility to switch off the parameter estimator, once a sufficiently good set of estimates has been obtained. The estimator is based on a four-wheel vehicle model with four degrees of freedom, which accommodates the dominant modes only, and is designed to make use of several interchangeable tyre models. The paper demonstrates the appropriateness of the DEKF. Results to date indicate that this is an effective approach, which is considered to be of potential benefit to the automotive industry.     

Vehicle Motion Analysis in Relation to Vehicle Safety

The influence of vehicle handling on the possible avoidance of accident situations is discussed. lit is shown that accident reconstruction at present does not provide the necessary information to relate the cause of accidents to the lack of road worthiness of vehicles. It follows that the vehicle behavior in proximity of its performance limit must be determined in order to infer its accident avoidance potential.

The paper presents a review of the state-of-the-art of vehicle modeling, simulation of vehicle maneuvers and full scale testing. The application of the direct method of the stability theory is suggested as a possible means of obtaining performance limit envelopes which are necessary for establishing standards of the performance of vehicles.     

Fatigue damage calculation for oil tanker and container ship structures

The fatigue behaviour of longitudinal stiffeners of oil tankers and container ships, subjected to dynamic loads, is analysed. The following dynamic load components are considered: hull girder vertical wave bending moment, alone and combined with the horizontal wave bending moment, hydrodynamic pressure and inertial forces caused by cargo acceleration.

The spectral method was selected to calculate the fatigue damage, based on S—N curves and Miner's rule. Following this approach, the fatigue damage may be calculated as a function of a stress parameter Ω_p, which represents the cumulative effect of wave induced loads in the unit of time and incorporates the combined effects of stress level and its occurring frequency.

Simple formulas for Ω_p of oil tankers and container ships are given, obtained from the results of hydrodynamic analyses performed on several ships, in different wave environments.

Several examples show the applicability of the methods to real ship structures. The method, however, still needs to be calibrated because of the simplifying hypotheses introduced in the loading conditions.     

REGULATION OF PRODUCTION OF PARATHYROID HORMONE－RELATED PEPTIDE （PTHrP） AND EXPRESSION OF ITS mRNA IN A HUMANLIVER－DERIVED CE

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Information needs of the continuing urban transportation planning process

Urban transportation is identified as a functional element in the broader context of urban facilities and services. From this point of view, the relative merits of separate information systems for transportation planning and general urban planning, as contrasted to unified systems for all urban management functions, are discussed. The overriding need to make the most effective use of urban resources argues strongly for the unification of urban information systems to the greatest possible extent consistent with the special data requirements of various functional programs. The need to identify and correlate data items for very small areal units and to keep current records of the constantly shifting patterns of social and economic activities in urban areas present difficult, but not insurmountable technical problems. However, the most serious barrier to the development and implementation of comprehensive urban information systems is concluded to be institutional, rather than technical, in nature.     

Flutter and Divergence Instabilities in Systems of Railway Wheelsets with Semi-rigid Articulation

For railway vehicles having coned wheels mounted on solid axles there is, in general, a conflict between stability of lateral deviations from the motion along the track and ability to steer round curves. However, certain configurations of three-axle vehicle can satisfy the requirement of perfect curving and for certain values of the system parameters are dynamically stable. In the case where three wheelsets have semi-rigid articulation and either the distribution of conicity amongst the wheelsets or the position of the articulation joint are varied, it is shown that both flutter and divergence instabilities can occur at low speeds, in contrast to the more common dynamic instabilities of other forms of railway vehicle which are driven by the inertia forces.     

Vehicle Energy Dissipation Due to Road Roughness

Road roughness and surface texture are known to affect tire rolling resistance; however, little emphasis has been placed on the consequent changes in total vehicle energy dissipation due to road roughness. Thus, tire rolling resistance, in isolation from vehicle contributed losses such as dissipation in the suspension, appears to be a weakness in present evaluation procedures as they relate to fuel economy and pollution level testing: Recent work by Funfsinn and Korst has shown that substantial and measurable increases in energy losses occur for vehicles traveling on rough roads. The present investigation uses vehicle axle accelerations as a means of examining various road surfaces. Correlation with computer simulations has allowed the development of a deterministic road roughness model which permits the prediction of energy dissipation in both the tire and suspension as functions of road roughness, tire pressure, and vehicle speed. Comparison to the experiments of Korst and Funfsinn results in good agreement and shows that total rolling loss increases of up to 20 percent compared to ideal smooth roads are possible. The aerodynamic drag coefficient is also found to increase while driving on rough roads.