Enabling a viable technique for the optimization of LNG carrier cargo operations

In this study, we optimize the loading and discharging operations of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carrier. First, we identify the required precautions for LNG carrier cargo operations. Next, we prioritize these precautions using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and experts’ judgments, in order to optimize the operational loading and discharging exercises of the LNG carrier, prevent system failure and human error, and reduce the risk of marine accidents. Thus, the objective of our study is to increase the level of safety during cargo operations.     

Visualisation of uncertainty in probabilistic traffic models for policy and operations

This study investigates different methods to visualise uncertainty in static representations of probabilistic traffic models predictions on road-networks. Although various graphical cues may be used to represent uncertainty it is not a priori clear which of them are most suited for this purpose, since their legibility, intelligibility and the degree to which they interfere with other graphical elements in a representation differ widely. Several graphical uncertainty representations were therefore developed and analysed in expert sessions. A selection of the initial set of uncertainty visualisations was further evaluated in a cognitive alternative task-switching experiment. The results show that graphical representations are able to convey uncertainty information relatively accurately, while some uncertainty visualisations outperform others. It depends on the model and scenario which representation is most suited for a given application. This paper presents an overview of possible graphic uncertainty representations and the considerations involved when applying them to uncertainty in traffic model visualisations.     

Step-tolling with price-sensitive demand: Why more steps in the toll make the consumer better off

Most dynamic models of congestion pricing use fully time-variant tolls. However, in practice, tolls are uniform over the day, or at most have just a few steps. Such uniform and step tolls have received surprisingly little attention from the literature. Moreover, most models that do study them assume that demand is insensitive to the price. This seems an empirically questionable assumption that, as this paper finds, strongly affects the implications of step tolling for the consumer. In the bottleneck model, first-best tolling has no effect on the generalised price, and thus consumer surplus remains the same as without tolling. Conversely, under price-sensitive demand, step tolling increases the price, making the consumer worse off. The more steps the toll has, the closer it approximates the first-best toll, thereby increasing the welfare gain and making consumers better off. This indicates the importance for real-world tolls to have as many steps as possible: this not only raises welfare, but may also increase the political acceptability of the scheme by making consumers better off.     

Impacts of urban built environment on empty taxi trips using limited geolocation data

This study identifies the determinants of the empty taxi trip duration (ETTD) by combining three high-resolution databases—geolocation data in New York City, geodatabase of urban planning data, and transportation facilities data. Considering the nature of duration data, hazard-based duration model is proposed to explore the relationships between causal factors and ETTD, coupling with three variations of baseline hazard distribution, i.e., Weibull distribution with heterogeneity, Weibull distribution, and log-logistic. Furthermore, the likelihood ratio test is presented to implement comparisons of three baseline hazard distributions, as well as spatial and temporal transferability of causal factors. The results show significant complementary effects by subway system and competitive effects by city bus and bicycling system, as well as significant impacts of trip length, airport trip, average annual income, and employment rate. Urban built environment, for instance, density of road, public facilities, and recreational sites and ratio of green space, has various impacts on ETTD. The elasticity estimations confirm significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in impacts on ETTD. In addition, the analysis on elasticity also reveals the considerable impacts of severe traffic congestion on ETTD within Manhattan. The modeling can assist stakeholders in understanding empty taxi movements and measuring taxi system efficiency in urban areas.     

Robust traffic assignment model: Formulation,solution algorithms and empirical application

ABSTRACT

The deterministic traffic assignment problem based on Wardrop's first criterion of traffic network utilization has been widely studied in the literature. However, the assumption of deterministic travel times in these models is restrictive, given the large degree of uncertainty prevalent in urban transportation networks. In this context, this paper proposes a robust traffic assignment model that generalizes Wardrop's principle of traffic network equilibrium to networks with stochastic and correlated link travel times and incorporates the aversion of commuters to unreliable routes.

The user response to travel time uncertainty is modeled using the robust cost (RC) measure (defined as a weighted combination of the mean and standard deviation of path travel time) and the corresponding robust user equilibrium (UE) conditions are defined. The robust traffic assignment problem (RTAP) is subsequently formulated as a Variational Inequality problem. To solve the RTAP, a Gradient Projection algorithm is proposed, which involves solving a series of minimum RC path sub-problems that are theoretically and practically harder than deterministic shortest path problems. In addition, an origin-based heuristic is proposed to enhance computational performance on large networks. Numerical experiments examine the computational performance and convergence characteristics of the exact algorithm and establish the accuracy and efficiency of the origin-based heuristic on various real-world networks. Finally, the proposed RTA model is applied to the Chennai road network using empirical data, and its benefits as a normative benchmark are quantified through comparisons against the standard UE and System Optimum (SO) models.     

Effect of nozzle orifice diameter on diesel spray tip penetration according to various spray models for CFD simulation with widely varying back pressure

CFD simulations of spray tip penetration with the standard KIVA3V, ‘original gas jet’ and ‘Normal gas jet profile with breakup length formula’ (NGJBL) spray models were performed to investigate the effects of nozzle orifice size and ambient gas density combinations on the spray penetration. The accuracy of the CFD simulation results was estimated by comparing them with available experimental data. The ambient gas density was varied in 12 kg/m³ intervals from 12 to 69 kg/m³ for each nozzle orifice diameter. The nozzle orifice diameters used were 119, 140, 183 and 206 mm. A total of 20 cases in the CFD simulations were considered with combinations of the 4 nozzle orifice diameters and 5 ambient gas densities. CFD simulations with the NGJBL spray model were more accurate than those with either the standard KIVA3V or gas jet spray models as the nozzle orifice diameter and ambient gas density was increased. The NGJBL and original gas jet model is more effective in predicting the spray tip penetration near the nozzle tip region.     

Vibration reduction of H/Shaft using an electromagnetic damper with mode change

The objective of this study is to develop a damper that can reduce the amplitude of vibration in various frequency ranges. Previous H/Shaft vibration reduction methods work in a passive way. A dynamic damper reduces the amplitude of vibration at its first mode, but vibration still appears at the second mode. A mass damper or hollow shaft can shift the natural frequency to a lower or higher region. The fixed operating frequency prevents vibration from being reduced outside the operating frequency range. The proposed damper uses electromagnets as either masses or actuators to change the damper mode between dynamic damper mode and mass damper mode. The electromagnetic damper (EMD) can change its mode to respond to the vibration excitation at both low and high frequencies. The vibration reduction performance was evaluated by FRF tests in laboratory and vehicle conditions. The results were compared with those of a dynamic damper and indicate that the amplitude of vibration is reduced by 95.6 % when the EMD is implemented on an H/Shaft, whereas only 61.9 % vibration reduction is achieved by the dynamic damper.     

Insights into vehicle trajectories at the handling limits: analysing open data from race car drivers

Race car drivers can offer insights into vehicle control during extreme manoeuvres; however, little data from race teams is publicly available for analysis. The Revs Program at Stanford has built a collection of vehicle dynamics data acquired from vintage race cars during live racing events with the intent of making this database publicly available for future analysis. This paper discusses the data acquisition, post-processing, and storage methods used to generate the database. An analysis of available data quantifies the repeatability of professional race car driver performance by examining the statistical dispersion of their driven paths. Certain map features, such as sections with high path curvature, consistently corresponded to local minima in path dispersion, quantifying the qualitative concept that drivers anchor their racing lines at specific locations around the track. A case study explores how two professional drivers employ distinct driving styles to achieve similar lap times, supporting the idea that driving at the limits allows a family of solutions in terms of paths and speed that can be adapted based on specific spatial, temporal, or other constraints and objectives.     

Marine accident analysis for collision and grounding in oil tanker using FTA method

In this study, collision and grounding data registered in GISIS (Global Integrated Shipping Information System) were investigated for oil tankers. The database includes the information of the collision and grounding accidents during the period between 1998 and 2010 in oil tankers. The risk assessments were carried out using fault tree analysis (FTA) programme for the incidents as collision and grounding occurred in oil tankers. In this study, we were able to investigate first the potential problems which cause the collision and grounding accidents have been determined, second, the occurrence of accidents has been shown with causal factors by the FTA method, and, finally, the significance degree of the initial events causing occurrence of accidents have been put forth. Collision in oil tanker resulted in economical loss (81%), pollution (6%) and death or injury (13%). Grounding in oil tanker resulted in economical loss (91%) and pollution (9%). According to the FTA results, the main reason for the accidents originating from human error is as follows: for collision accidents, Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREG) violation and the lack of communication between vessels; and for grounding accidents, the interpretation failure of the officer on watch and lack of communication in the bridge resource management.     

Determinants of the property damage costs of bulk barge accidents

This study investigates determinants of the vessel, cargo, and other-property damage costs of bulk barge accidents in US inland waterways. Tobit estimation of a three-equation recursive model suggests that, in bulk barge accidents: (1) vessel damage cost is greater for collision, fire/explosion, and material/equipment failure accidents than for groundings; (2) cargo damage cost is greater at night and when the weather is foggy and increases with barge age; and (3) otherproperty damage cost is greater for multi-vessel accidents, but decreases with barge size. A dollar of vessel damage cost increases other-property damage cost by $1.38, while a dollar of cargo damage cost increases this cost by $6.90. An important result for formulating bulk barge accident cost-reduction policies is that a given determinant might have a negative effect on one type of damage cost but a positive effect on another.