船用长轴类大锻件锻造工艺方法研究

为提高长轴类大锻件拔长工艺的效率、降低成本、节约能耗、改善锻件成形质量,根据某船用长轴类大锻件的实际尺寸,结合企业实际锻造及加热设备情况制定了锻造工艺,并基于有限元数值模拟软件DEFORM-3D研究了锻造工艺方法,针对固定上砧宽度而选择宽度相同或宽度更大的下砧,分析了锻件表面温度场、截面应力分布以及锻造力、拔长效率的情况。结果表明,采用等宽(330mm)的上下砧时,锻造效率、温度场分布均优于其它情况,所需的锻造力也较小,有利于实现长轴类大锻件的锻造成形。     

Road Safety Strategies: A Comparative Framework and Case Studies

Abstract

This paper proposes a nine‐component analytical framework for developing, comparing, and evaluating road safety strategies. The nine components are: (1) vision; (2) objectives; (3) targets; (4) action plan; (5) evaluation and monitoring; (6) research and development; (7) quantitative modelling; (8) institutional framework; and (9) funding. While the first four components are essential for the formulation of a road safety strategy, the remaining components are key to its successful implementation. To demonstrate the usefulness of this comparative framework, we examine the road safety strategies of six selected administrations: Australia, California, Great Britain, Japan, New Zealand, and Sweden. In these case studies, we extract and highlight good practices in the formulation and implementation of their road safety strategies. The proposed framework also provides a systematic approach for assessing road safety strategies in other administrations. The evaluation of the six case studies forms a benchmarking platform for the planning, formulation, and implementation of good practices for road safety strategies.     

Roadmap for free-floating bikeshare research and practice in North America

ABSTRACT

The deployment of smartphone-operated, non-station-based bicycle fleets (“dockless” or “free-floating” bikeshare) represents a new generation of bikesharing. Users locate bikes in these free-floating systems using Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and lock bikes in place at their destinations. In this paper, we review current free-floating bikesharing systems in North America and discuss priorities for future research and practice. Since launching in 2017, free-floating bikeshare has expanded rapidly to encompass 200+ systems operating 40,000+ bikes within 150+ cities. In contrast with previous systems, free-floating systems operate almost exclusively using commercial “for-profit” models, amidst concerns of financial sustainability. Governance for these systems is in early stages and can include operating fees, fleet size caps, safety requirements, parking restrictions, data sharing, and equity obligations. We identify research and practice gaps within the themes of usage, equity, sharing resources, business model, and context. While some existing bikesharing literature translates to free-floating systems, novel topics arise due to the ubiquity, fluidity, and business models of these new systems. Systems have numerous obstacles to overcome for long-term sustainability, including barriers common to station-based systems: limited supportive infrastructure, equity, theft or vandalism, and funding. Other unique obstacles arise in free-floating bikeshare around parking, sidewalk right of ways, varied bicycle types, and data sharing. This review offers background in and critical reflection on the rapidly evolving free-floating bikeshare landscape, including priorities for future research and practice. If concerns can be overcome, free-floating bikeshare may provide unprecedented opportunities to bypass congested streets, encourage physical activity, and support urban sustainability.     

An adaptive neural network-fuzzy linear regression approach for improved car ownership estimation and forecasting in complex and uncertain environments: the case of Iran

This paper applies a novel adaptive approach consisting of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Fuzzy Linear Regression (FLR) to improve car ownership forecasting in complex, ambiguous, and uncertain environments. This integrated approach is applied to forecast car ownership in Iran from 1930 to 2007. In this study, the level of car ownership is viewed as the result of demographic, politico-social, and urban structure factors including average family size, total population density, urban population density, urbanization rate, gross national product per capita, gasoline price, and total road length. To capture the potential complexity, uncertainty, and linearity relation between the car ownership function and its determinants, ANN and FLR (including eight well-known FLR) approaches are applied to the collected data. Next, the preferred ANN is selected based on sensitivity analysis results for the test data while the preferred FLR is identified with regard to ANOVA and MAPE results. The results obtained from the performance comparison demonstrate the considerable superiority of the preferred ANN over the preferred FLR regarding the nonlinear and complex nature of the car ownership function in Iran. This is the first study that presents an ANN-FLR approach for car ownership forecasting capable of handling complexity and non-linearity, uncertainty, pre-processing, and post-processing.     

美国焊接桥梁的疲劳设计准则

50年前,疲劳设计在美国人看来并非是一个很严重的桥梁性能问题.疲劳设计运用了限制最大应力的概念,即假定疲劳极限发生在2×106次循环荷载时,利用最小应力与最大应力的比R,限制各点的最大应力.根据道路类型与每日平均车流量,采用型号为HS-20的设计车来测定特定周期.在20世纪60年代末至70年代初,发现钢结构桥梁中存在疲...     

A detailed analysis of how an urban trail system affects cyclists’ travel

Transportation specialists, urban planners, and public health officials have been steadfast in encouraging active modes of transportation over the past decades. Conventional thinking, however, suggests that providing infrastructure for cycling and walking in the form of off-street trails is critically important. An outstanding question in the literature is how one’s travel is affected by the use of such facilities and specifically, the role of distance to the trail in using such facilities. This research describes a highly detailed analysis of use along an off-street facility in Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA. The core questions addressed in this investigation aim to understand relationships between: (1) the propensity of using the trail based on distance from the trip origin and destination, and (2) how far out of their way trail users travel for the benefit of using the trail and explanatory factors for doing so. The data used in the analysis for this research was collected as a human intercept survey along a section of an off-street facility. The analysis demonstrates that a cogent distance decay pattern exists and that the decay function varies by trip purpose. Furthermore, we find that bicyclists travel, on average, 67% longer in order to include the trail facility on their route. The paper concludes by explaining how the distance decay and shortest path versus taken path analysis can aid in the planning and analysis of new trail systems.

Singapore motorisation restraint and its implications on travel behaviour and urban sustainability

The example of Singapore shows that rapid urban and economic growth does not have to bring traffic congestion and pollution. Singapore has chosen to restrain car traffic demand due to its limited land supply. Transport policy based on balanced development of road and transit infrastructure and restraint of traffic has been consistently implemented for the past 30 years. Combined with land use planning, it resulted in a modern transport system, which is free from major congestion and provides users with different travel alternatives. As the economic growth caused a substantial increase in demand for cars, several pricing policies were introduced with the aim of restraining car ownership and usage. Growth of the vehicle population is now controlled and potentially congested roads are subject to road pricing. These measures help to keep the roads free from major congestion, maintain car share of work trips below 25% and keep the transport energy usage low. Although Singapore conditions are in many aspects unique, its travel demand experience can provide useful lessons for other rapidly growing cities in Asia.

Do changes in neighborhood characteristics lead to changes in travel behavior? A structural equations modeling approach

Suburban sprawl has been widely criticized for its contribution to auto dependence. Numerous studies have found that residents in suburban neighborhoods drive more and walk less than their counterparts in traditional environments. However, most studies confirm only an association between the built environment and travel behavior, and have yet to establish the predominant underlying causal link: whether neighborhood design independently influences travel behavior or whether preferences for travel options affect residential choice. That is, residential self-selection may be at work. A few studies have recently addressed the influence of self-selection. However, our understanding of the causality issue is still immature. To address this issue, this study took into account individuals’ self-selection by employing a quasi-longitudinal design and by controlling for residential preferences and travel attitudes. In particular, using data collected from 547 movers currently living in four traditional neighborhoods and four suburban neighborhoods in Northern California, we developed a structural equations model to investigate the relationships among changes in the built environment, changes in auto ownership, and changes in travel behavior. The results provide some encouragement that land-use policies designed to put residents closer to destinations and provide them with alternative transportation options will actually lead to less driving and more walking.

Modeling residential sorting effects to understand the impact of the built environment on commute mode choice

This paper presents an examination of the significance of residential sorting or self selection effects in understanding the impacts of the built environment on travel choices. Land use and transportation system attributes are often treated as exogenous variables in models of travel behavior. Such models ignore the potential self selection processes that may be at play wherein households and individuals choose to locate in areas or built environments that are consistent with their lifestyle and transportation preferences, attitudes, and values. In this paper, a simultaneous model of residential location choice and commute mode choice that accounts for both observed and unobserved taste variations that may contribute to residential self selection is estimated on a survey sample extracted from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area household travel survey. Model results show that both observed and unobserved residential self selection effects do exist; however, even after accounting for these effects, it is found that built environment attributes can indeed significantly impact commute mode choice behavior. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of the model findings for policy planning.

Modeling and simulation of fuel cell hybrid vehicles

A comprehensive procedure for mathematical modeling and validation of a fuel cell hybrid vehicle (FCHV) is presented in this paper. The subsystems are modeled based on lab testing and in-field vehicle testing results from the Tongji University Start prototype vehicle. An FCHV-SIM (fuel cell hybrid vehicle simulation) model is then developed based on the experimental data. Model validation results confirm that the FCHV-SIM model is reasonably accurate and suitable for model-based control development.