The UNCTAD and WORKPORT models of port development: evolution or revolution?

Around ten years have elapsed since the UNCTAD model on port development was put forward as an explanation of how ports have adapted to incorporate technological, political and operational changes. The UNCTAD Three Generation Port Model is critically examined in the light of research carried out under the WORKPORT project funded by the European Commission, 1998-1999. Evidence from the WORKPORT study shows that, rather than developing in discrete steps, ports evolve continuously, adapting to new technologies, fresh legislation, revised working practices and other influences on an as-required basis. Further, it is demonstrated that several streams of evolution can be observed simultaneously; the pace of change within each stream can vary substantially. One of the prominent features of ports is that they often have several terminals, some operating along traditional lines while others may be leading edge in terms of technology, working practices or other aspects; all of them may be equally effective. The UNCTAD model, implying ports develop in discrete steps, or generations, is therefore shown to be fundamentally flawed.     

Fatigue of jack-ups: Simplifying calculations

Simplification of calculations for fatigue of jack-ups is essential in order to understand the primary influences and the uncertainties involved. Considerable simplification is possible for jack-ups because calculations for fatigue are dominated by the few worst loading conditions, while the large number of lesser conditions can be ignored. The dominating conditions are likely to be — during operations, the resonant sway and surge motions at the natural period of the structure; and during towage, the 1 or 2 days of maximum roll and pitch motions. Examples for both situations examine loading conditions and demonstrate simplified calculations.     

荷兰铁路最新研究成果

荷兰铁路最新研究集中在开发用户友好工具以利用标准的列车检测数据对车站晚点列车进行实验分析、建立不同线路列车到发晚点时间分布的随机模型。根据位于荷兰车站Hague HS的轨道电路对近10000次列车运行自动检测可以证明，TNV－Prepare软件工具可以很好地记录列车占用和释放时间以及列车速度。若一条线路上晚点时间很短（1分钟以下）或晚点时间长（5分钟以上）的次数不是太大，发车晚点分布在很多情况下符合一种指数分布。用一种新的工具对大铁路网的时刻表以及在中转车站的相互连接的线路之间的晚点的扩散进行了分析，将列车描述成一个基于Max-Plus线性系统的间断事件系统（DES）。它有助于确定网络中的关键环路，交叉线路时刻表的剩余间隙以及网络中的晚点扩散。另一个铁路研究领域是线路基础设施养护维修与更新改造的寿命周期成本估算的决策支持系统，该系统经证明对不同线路上部结构设计的寿命周期成本的估算非常有效，对轨道和道岔养护维修与更新改造计划规则的修改也十分有效。     

In-situ measurement of loading stresses with X-ray diffraction for yield locus determination

The application of the X-ray diffraction method is introduced to solve the problem of inhomogeneous deformation fields in the specimens used for sheet metal characterization. In this method, strains are measured on one side of a specimen with optical measurement systems. On the other side, loading stresses on a specimen are captured with an X-ray diffractometer mounted on a universal testing machine. By this way, the whole stress-strain history of a material point is tracked during testing. The method was first applied to uniaxial tension tests, whereby the applicability of the theory of stress factors and effective X-ray elastic constants were tested. The relaxation behavior of a sheet material which shows itself as stress drops during in-situ experimentation was characterized and compensated by a visco-plastic material model for different stress states. The proposed method was applied to characterize aluminum alloy AA5182 under plane strain tension and shear conditions and the results were compared with the conventionally obtained yield locus. Numerical analyses of a workpiece with the Vegter and Yld2000-2D material models show that the enriched yield locus definition with accurate plane strain tension and shear stresses captures the experimentally obtained surface strains more precisely.     

Tollroads are only part of the overall trip: the error of our ways in past willingness to pay studies

With rare exception, actual tollroad traffic in many countries has failed to reproduce forecast traffic levels, regardless of whether the assessment is made after an initial year of operation or as long as 10 years after opening. Pundits have offered many reasons for this divergence, including optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, the promise to equity investors of early returns on investment, errors in land use forecasts, and specific assumptions underlying the traffic assignment models used to develop traffic forecasts. One such assumption is the selection of a behaviourally meaningful value of travel time savings (VTTS) for use in a generalised cost or generalised time user benefit expression that is the main behavioural feature of the traffic assignment (route choice) model. Numerous empirical studies using stated choice experiments have designed choice sets of alternatives as if users choose a tolled route or a free route under the (implied) assumption that the tolled route is tolled for the entire trip. Reality is often very different, with a high incidence of use of a non-tolled road leading into and connecting out of a tolled link. In this paper we recognise this feature of route choice and redesign the stated choice experiment to account for it. Furthermore, this study is a follow up to a previous study undertaken before a new toll road was in place, and it benefits from real exposure to the new toll road. We find that the VTTS is noticeably reduced, and if the VTTS is a significant contributing influence on errors on traffic forecasts, then the lower estimates make sense behaviourally.     

On the practicality of the UNCTAD 40–40–20 Code for liner conferences

The potential effects of a rigid adherence to the UNCTAD Code are analysed for 26 developing countries. A brief commentary is given on the advantages of a more liberal application of the Code, including reciprocal sharing of liner tonnages by regions of developing countries with regions of developed market-economy countries.     

Valuing Estuarine Resource Services Using Economic and Ecological Models: The Peconic Estuary System Study

This article summarizes four integrated economic studies undertaken to contribute to resource preservation and restoration decisions for the Peconic Estuary System of Suffolk County, NY. Completed as part of the National Estuary Program, the studies apply distinct resource valuation methods to a wide range of resource issues. The principal goals of this article are to highlight different methodologies that may be used to assess nonmarket economic values in a coastal management context, and characterize differences in the results that one may expect from each approach. We also emphasize potential relationships among values estimated by different nonmarket methodologies, and comment on the implications of these relationships for the interpretation and use of economic value estimates.     

GIS-Based Coastal Behavior Modeling and Simulation of Potential Land and Property Loss: Implications of Sea-Level Rise at Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach,Sydney (Australia)

Rising sea level potentially poses a threat to many coastal areas, thereby possibly affecting coastal environments, including human assets. Taking into account the precau--tionary principle demanded at the Framework Convention for Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, coastal managers and planners are required to evaluate the possibility of both physical and economic impacts of sea-level rise. However, long-term and cost-intensive data capture is often not affordable for a first estimation of general trends. To determine physical and economic impacts on a spatial scale of less than 10 km, a rapid and low-cost method is required. A Geographic Information System (GIS), in combination with readily available data and two coastal behaviour models (the Bruun-GIS Model and the Aggradation Model) was applied to simulate shoreline recession caused by a rise in sea level. In addition, the potential impacts of a 50-year design storm were considered in conjunction with sea-level rise. The monetary vulnerability was assessed and combined with the simulated recession rates. This procedure provides a first estimate on the potential risk a locality (here Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach) may face due to the impacts of sea-level rise and/or coastal storms. Overall, the modelling outcome suggests that long-term erosion problems associated with rising sea level are less significant in comparison with those impacts associated with short-term coastal storm events for Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach.