Advance-F automatic car-following model and its traffic characteristics

This study develops a longitudinal control model for automatic car-following with one switch and two controllers. The switch is operated using fuzzy logic to activate acceleration or trigger braking. The two controllers activate the acceleration pedal and the brake system and use reference adaptive control theory. A simulation is utilized to evaluate the acceptability of the proposed model and to compare the traffic characteristics between machine driving (by the proposed model) and human driving (as represented by the GM-V model). The simulation results indicate that this model is acceptable and is both safe and efficient for use in traffic. However, the automatic car-following system is more aggressive than humans are, which may be the primary challenge in implementation.     

Application of Sensitivity Methods to Analysis and Synthesis of Vehicle Dynamic Systems

The development and application of sensitivity methods for determining the effects of parameter changes on the response of vehicle dynamic systems is presented. The procedures shown can be used to enhance the analysis and synthesis processes of virtually any road or rail vehicle system regardless of its complexity. The parametric sensitivity of vehicle models in time domain, steady state models and vehicle models in frequency domain can be investigated using different types of sensitivity functions, both dimensional and dimensionless including first order standard, percentage, logarithmic, second order standard, and logarithmic and percentage sensitivity measures. These sensitivity functions and measures are determined as functions of partial derivatives of system variables taken with respect to system parameters. In the case of sensitivity functions in the frequency domain the variable values are computed as either the magnitude or phase angle of a complex element of the transfer function matrix. The methods presented enable to determine the influence of all system primary (constant) and secondary (non-constant) parameters on system primary and secondary variables. The primary variables are state variables or elements of the transfer function matrix and the secondary variables may be any functions of primary variables and system parameters. Typical secondary system parameters which can be examined include initial conditions, time variant coefficients, natural frequencies, loads, and typical secondary variables are forces, weight transfers, stability factors and energy components. The analysis of sensitivity results obtained for three vehicle handling models in both linear and nonlinear regimes of vehicle performance and utilizing various types of sensitivity functions is also presented.     

Aggregating mobile object trajectories: cumulative time geographic density estimation for GPS data

We present new approaches that expand upon the time geographic density estimation (TGDE) framework previously employed to estimate potential path trees. In the past, TGDE metrics have identified possible locations an individual moving object may have passed between, given known origin and destination points. This paper utilizes a new form of TGDE to investigate taxicab GPS traces over a specified time horizon with position ‘gaps’. To this end, we propose a new extension to the TGDE framework, TGDE-C, which is used to determine the cumulative TGDE values for a group of GPS traces, at a given location. These metrics are applied to multiple taxis and allow for time of day analysis. Additionally, we combine these new extensions with existing TGDE metrics that allow us to determine how accessible individual or groups of vehicles are to urban opportunities.     

Visualisation of uncertainty in probabilistic traffic models for policy and operations

This study investigates different methods to visualise uncertainty in static representations of probabilistic traffic models predictions on road-networks. Although various graphical cues may be used to represent uncertainty it is not a priori clear which of them are most suited for this purpose, since their legibility, intelligibility and the degree to which they interfere with other graphical elements in a representation differ widely. Several graphical uncertainty representations were therefore developed and analysed in expert sessions. A selection of the initial set of uncertainty visualisations was further evaluated in a cognitive alternative task-switching experiment. The results show that graphical representations are able to convey uncertainty information relatively accurately, while some uncertainty visualisations outperform others. It depends on the model and scenario which representation is most suited for a given application. This paper presents an overview of possible graphic uncertainty representations and the considerations involved when applying them to uncertainty in traffic model visualisations.     

Maritime interests in the EU policy-making: Structures,practices, and governability of collective action

Throughout Europe, a number of maritime interests have re-targeted their lobbying structures and strategies aiming to influence the development of the maritime related European Union (EU) policies. The paper examines these maritime interests’ mobilisation in the making of the Common EU Maritime Transport Policy (CMTP). First, it provides a review of the role of these interest groups and the implications of the observed collective interests’ representation. Then, with the contribution a data-set of replies to a questionnaire distributed to all the interest groups that are involved in EU maritime affairs, the paper analyses the variety of interest groups representing the maritime sector in EU affairs. The focus is on the structures (i.e. membership numbers and types, location, internal structures, budget) and the lobbying practices of the 37 identified EU level maritime related organisations. The paper also presents an evaluation of the most positive and most negative parameters of the ‘EU environment’ and the ‘economic environment’ that assist, or undermine, the governability cohesiveness of this collective action. This study provides information on whether and under what conditions maritime interests are able to form comprehensive EU-level organisations capable of representing their members and their interests in the EU policy making process     

Error quantification of a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part 2. Chlorophyll-a, nutrients and SPM

Marine systems models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, but far too little attention has been paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to ecosystem processes. Here we describe the application of summary error statistics to a complex 3D model (POLCOMS-ERSEM) run for the period 1988–1989 in the southern North Sea utilising information from the North Sea Project, which collected a wealth of observational data. We demonstrate that to understand model data misfit and the mechanisms creating errors, we need to use a hierarchy of techniques, including simple correlations, model bias, model efficiency, binary discriminator analysis and the distribution of model errors to assess model errors spatially and temporally. We also demonstrate that a linear cost function is an inappropriate measure of misfit. This analysis indicates that the model has some skill for all variables analysed. A summary plot of model performance indicates that model performance deteriorates as we move through the ecosystem from the physics, to the nutrients and plankton.     

160 km/h高速货车转向架的研制

根据高速货车转向架的运用要求和运用条件,确定了160km/h高速货车转向架的主要技术参数;提出了整体焊接构架式有摇枕转向架的结构形式,介绍了其主体结构情况;结合转向架静强度和疲劳试验、线路动力学试验结果,得出了转向架设计是较为成功的结论。     

Logistical restructuring and road freight traffic growth

The forecasting of road freight traffic has relied heavily on the close correlation between GDP and road tonne-kilometers. It has not been rooted in an understanding of the causes of freight traffic growth. The research reported in this paper has investigated this process of traffic growth in two ways: first, by analysing official data on the production, consumption and movement of food and drink products, and second, by conducting a survey of the changing freight transport requirements of 88 large British-based manufacturers.The analysis of secondary data shows how, in the food and drink sector, the relationship between the real value of output and road vehicle-kms hinges on four key parameters: value density, handling factor, average length of haul and consignment size. An attempt is made to explain variations in these parameters.The survey of manufacturers suggests that the growth of lorry traffic is the net result of a complex interaction between factors operating at four levels of logistical management: strategic planning of logistical systems, choice of suppliers and distributors, scheduling of product flow and the management of transport resources. Changes in the frequency and scheduling of freight deliveries in response to tightening customer service requirements and just-in-time management appear to have become a more prevalent cause of freight traffic growth than the physical restructuring of logistical systems. Manufacturers anticipate that their road freight demand will broadly increase in line with sales and be largely unaffected by road transport cost increases at the levels currently proposed. The paper concludes by examining their likely reactions to a much sharper increase in the cost of road freight movement.