Using ordered attitudinal indicators in a latent variable choice model: a study of the impact of security on rail travel behaviour

There is growing interest in the use of models that recognise the role of individuals’ attitudes and perceptions in choice behaviour. Rather than relying on simple linear approaches or a potentially bias-inducing deterministic approach based on incorporating stated attitudinal indicators directly in the choice model, researchers have recently recognised the latent nature of attitudes. The uptake of such latent attitude models in applied work has however been slow, while a number of overly simplistic assumptions are also commonly made. In this article, we present an application of jointly estimated attitudinal and choice models to a real-world transport study, looking at the role of latent attitudes in a rail travel context. Our results show the impact that concern with privacy, liberty and security, and distrust of business, technology and authority have on the desire for rail travel in the face of increased security measures, as well as for universal security checks. Alongside demonstrating the applicability of the model in applied work, we also address a number of theoretical issues. We first show the equivalence of two different normalisations discussed in the literature. Unlike many other latent attitude studies, we explicitly recognise the repeated choice nature of the data. Finally, the main methodological contribution comes in replacing the typically used continuous model for attitudinal response by an ordered logit structure which more correctly accounts for the ordinal nature of the indicators.     

Strategic management of organizational turnarounds in the transit industry

The traditional wisdom that there are increasing returns to scale among bus transit systems has been shaken with recent research findings. The implication from the literature is that unless many transit systems restructure along new organizational lines the financial and service provision difficulties will continue. Very few public transit systems have attempted to strategically manage change and turnaround organizationally.The objectives of this research were to identify the salient factors in organizational turnarounds and to determine whether these factors were evident within transit organizations that have attempted to manage change strategically. The author reviewed the corporate turnaround literature and conducted four case studies of strategic planning/management within the transit industry.All four cases exhibited organizational declines or perceived declines as imminent. They initiated turnarounds through reorganizations and efforts at strategic management. The reorganizations that occurred at all four cases were relatively minor, involving some changes in function. Only minor changes in management occurred and commitment to strategic management varied. Strategic objectives were not quantifiable. All of the cases could have improved their communication below the middle-management levels. The measures of performance in general did not relate a specific strategy and program to a particular turnaround effect. Through management commitment and some minor organizational restructuring two cases achieved some degree of turnaround. Total commitment to strategic management, organizational change, adequate communication, and accurate performance measures are keys to definitive turnarounds.     

Impact of family in-home quality time on person travel demand

This paper introduces the concept of Primary Family Priority Time (PFPT), which represents a high priority household decision to spend time together for in-home activities. PFPT is incorporated into a fully specified and operational activity based discrete choice model system for Copenhagen, called COMPAS, using the DaySim software platform. Structural tests and estimation results identify two important findings. First, PFPT has a place high in the model hierarchy, and second, strong interactions exist between PFPT and the other day level activity components of the model system. Forecasts are generated for a road pricing and congestion scenario by COMPAS and a comparison version of the model system that excludes PFPT. COMPAS with PFPT exhibits less mode changing and time-of-day shifting in response to pricing and congestion than the comparison version.     

Cohort analysis of driving cessation and limitation among older adults

Automobiles are central to participation in economic, social, and cultural activities in the United States. The ability to drive as one ages is fundamental to the quality of life among older adults. Driving rates decline significantly with age. Researchers using cross-sectional data have studied the reasons former drivers have stopped driving, but few have followed individuals over time to examine changes in relationships among driving cessation, socio-demographics, and health conditions. We used longitudinal data from a national sample of 20,000 observations from the University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to examine relationships among demographic variables, health conditions, and driving reduction and driving cessation. Longitudinal data allow analysis of generational differences in behavior, a major advantage over cross-sectional data which only allow comparisons of different people at one point in time. We found, like many other studies, that personal decisions to limit and eventually stop driving vary with sex, age, and health conditions. In addition, unlike most previous studies, we also found that those relationships differ by birth cohort with younger cohorts less likely to stop and limit their driving than their older counterparts. The findings indicate an evolution in the association between driving cessation and its causes.

     

Workshop 3A: Governance,contracting, ownership and competition issues in public transport: Looking up not down

Workshop 3A focussed on matters of institutional design that seem likely to improve public transport outcomes. It started by defining high level outcome goals, as measures of ultimate public transport success, and then identified the major societal issues that public transport systems can help to resolve. These issues were separately defined for Southern African and western settings. The importance of taking an integrated approach to transport, particularly land use/transport integration, was seen as fundamental to goal achievement. Workshop papers provided many and varied examples of this importance, ranging from PPPs for major public transport projects to system design issues and contracting out of services. The Workshop included detailed discussion on paratransit development in Southern Africa, where relationship management is proving to be critical, in-line with much previous Thredbo discussion about the important role of trusting partnerships. Parallels and contrasts were drawn with paratransit in western settings. Competition in passenger rail was also a focus, with some questioning of the benefits of franchising. Discussion concluded by proposing recommendations for policy and research and suggesting agenda items for future Thredbo Conferences.     

The evolution of urban traffic control: changing policy and technology

Abstract

The history of urban traffic control (UTC) throughout the past century has been a continued race to keep pace with ever more complex policy objectives and consistently increasing vehicle demand. Many benefits can be observed from an efficient UTC system, such as reduced congestion, increased economic efficiency and improved road safety and air quality.

There have been significant advances in vehicle detection and communication technologies which have enabled a series of step changes in the capabilities of UTC systems, from early (fixed time) signal plans to modern integrated systems. A variety of UTC systems have been implemented throughout the world, each with individual strengths and weaknesses; this paper seeks to compare the leading commercial systems (and some less well known systems) to highlight the key characteristics and differences before assessing whether the current UTC systems are capable of meeting modern transport policy obligations and desires.

This paper then moves on to consider current and future transport policy and the technological landscape in which UTC will need to operate over the coming decades, where technological advancements are expected to move UTC from an era of limited data availability to an era of data abundance.     

Design and development of a stated choice experiment for interdependent agents: accounting for interactions between buyers and sellers of urban freight services

Stated choice experiments have proven to be a powerful tool in eliciting preferences across a broad range of choice settings. This paper outlines the elements of a group-based experiment designed for interdependent urban freight stakeholders, along with the procedure to administer the questionnaire sequentially. The focus is on the design of a computer-assisted personal survey instrument and the value in disseminating the details of a new approach to design and collect stated choice data for interacting agents. The paper also discusses how to specify a reference alternative, and then how to recruit appropriate real-market or representative decision-making group members to participate in a subsequent phase of the survey, which incorporates the reference alternative and contextual information from an initial phase. The empirical strategy, set out in some detail, provides a new framework within which to understand more fully the role that specific attributes, such as variable user charges, influencing freight distribution chains might play, and who in the supply chain is affected by specific attributes in terms of willingness to pay for the gains in distribution efficiency.

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