A multi-instrumented approach to observing the activity rescheduling decision process

Activity scheduling simulation models represent an emerging and proposing approach to forecasting travel demand. The most significant developmental challenge is the lack of empirical data on how people actually proceed through the scheduling and conflict resolution process. This paper develops a new methodology to collect data about the rescheduling decision process. The data collection involves six stages: preplanned schedule interview, coding of the preplanned schedule, second-by-second Global Positioning System tracking, internet-based prompted recall diary, detection of rescheduling decisions (via comparison of planned versus executed activities), and a final in-depth interview probing the how and why of rescheduling decisions. Each stage of the methodology is described in detail with example results drawn from a pilot study. Key discoveries include: elicitation of multiple preplanned schedule reporting methods (verbal, point-form, calendar); discovery that activity attributes (time, location, involved persons) are planned on significantly different time horizons and include partial elaboration; and provision of new insights into how and why rescheduling decisions are made. A method for automatically tracking rescheduling decisions was also discovered. Overall, the new methodology has potential to contribute to the development of more realistic models of the entire scheduling process, especially rescheduling and conflict resolution sub-models.     

Control of drivers' route choice: Pipe dream or panacea?

In most large cities traffic flow is controlled or manipulated in a number of ways. The methods used are mostly negative in the sense that they restrict the driver's choice of alternative routes rather than encourage him to use a particular one. This paper reviews some of the conventional measures and goes on to consider whether a more positive approach to route control might be justified, by inducing a more efficient or acceptable pattern of traffic movement in urban areas. The principal criteria for an efficient pattern are taken to be the total rate of expenditure of vehicle mileage and the frequency of route crossings, and an attempt is made to evaluate the potential benefits of route control in these terms. Social, technical and political considerations suggest that compulsory control will not be feasible for some time (at least, in the UK), but if the benefits to drivers as individuals can be shown to be worthwhile an advisory system might be practicable. Some possible systems are briefly outlined.The author is grateful to the City Engineer of Westminster City Council, Mr A.J. Cryer, for permission to publish this paper,which, however, does not necessarily represent the views . City Council. The author is greatly indebted to E. M. Holroyd for numerous suggestions and advice.     

Activity settings and travel behaviour: A social contact perspective

Using time-use data from Canada, Norway, and Sweden, this study briefly outlines the essence of the activity setting approach and illustrates one aspect of its usefulness by exploring the impact of social contact on travel behaviour. The activity system approach views behaviour in context. Activity settings are generic components of the activity system and studying them using time-use diaries can provide major insights into travel behaviour. Focusing on social contact, this paper characterizes the social environment in terms of social circle (interaction partners) and social space (location). The analysis shows that there are clear differences in the levels of social interaction across various groups, including those who work at home. The 1992 Canadian data showed people working at the workplace spend relatively more time with others, about 50% of total time awake. Working at home reduced the time with others to a low of 15.7%. when people worked at home the family benefited, almost doubling the time spent with them compared to those working at the workplace. Persons working at home only spend the most time alone. There is a tendency for persons with low social interaction to travel more. It is argued that individual need, or want, social contact and if they cannot find it at the workplace they will seek it elsewhere thus generating travel. Whether this is the result of need or opportunity is of minor relevance, what it does suggest is that working in isolation at home will not necessarily diminish travel but rather may simply change its purpose. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Shorter sea routes as a result of increasing cargo flows

This paper examines the apparent paradox involved in shipping lines responding to increasing cargo flows from Britain to mainland Europe by moving to shorter routes. Analysis shows, however, this move to be a logical and valuable defensive response by shipping lines but at a cost to the transport consumer.     

"虎豹"的塔塔时代预测

公司简介 CSM Worldwide公司（www．csmauto．com），为全球650多个汽车整车制造商，汽车零部件供应商和其他经济组织提供全球汽车市场咨询和预测服务。公司总部位于北美底特律，在全球12个地区设有分公司或附属机构。中国公司总部设在上海。     

The shape of MaaS: The potential for MaaS Lite

Mobility as a Service (MaaS) is about improving mobility for people. Since Gothenburg piloted the first multi-modal Mobility as a Service (MaaS) scheme from 2012, there have been many further attempts at introducing connected and bundled services globally, invariably provided as a mobile app and a single, simple ticketing interface. As in any emerging paradigm, the varying flavour, or ‘shapes’ of MaaS that are piloted reflect the search for a sustainable business model and connectivity between transport operators at varying levels that includes risk reallocation and data sharing. The varying levels of success of MaaS and Mobility on Demand (MOD) lead the authors to propose MaaS Lite, which reflects an incremental approach to MaaS based on a simpler organisational arrangement that does not depend upon the introduction of a Mobility Operator as a new player. MaaS Lite also recognises that most trips are not complex at all, often based on one or two connected mechanised modes that meets highly local needs, including FMLM service connectivity.Overall, MaaS is not a ‘one size fits all’ solution for all regions but the benefits of the highly targeted MaaS Lite could realise early public benefits as a first step in the development of a multi-phased ‘services road map’ that evolves towards the implementation of multi-modal, region-wide operationally integrated MaaS. Case studies in Hong Kong and Brisbane demonstrate the merits of MaaS Lite in these two contrasting environments having different regulatory regimes, population densities and levels of private car ownership.     

An Approach to Determining Worst Case Platoon Behavior

This paper presents a method with which one can evaluate alternative platooning control strategies with respect to worst case behavior. The motivation is to provide platoon control designers with an objective means of evaluating robustness in the face of system uncertainties. The approach can be viewed as an extension of optimal control procedures and is applicable to complex, nonlinear systems. An arbitrary number of uncertain parameters, unmodeled components and inputs are allowed. The end result is a lower bound for the worst case platoon performance.     

Climate change projections for variables affecting road networks in Europe

Global climate change will affect road networks during this century. The effects will be different in various parts of the world due to differences in local climate change and in the structure and properties of roads. In this paper, climate change projections are presented for climate variables that are most likely to affect the long-term performance of road networks in Europe. We apply four regional climate simulations up to the year 2100 using two plausible future emission scenarios. The results show that the changing climate will require significant adaptation measures in the near future in order to maintain the operability of the European road network.     

城市交通控制的演变--政策与技术变更

在过去的一个世纪里,城市交通控制始终在演变,以适应日益复杂的政策目标和不断增长的交通需求。一个高效的交通控制系统可以带来很多收益,例如缓解拥堵、提高经济效益以及改善道路安全和空气质量。车辆检测和通信技术方面取得的显著进步为交通控制系统的调控能力带来了一系列阶段性变化：从早期（固定配时）信号控制发展到现代化的集成系统。多种类型的交通控制系统在全球不同地区建设完成,每种系统都有各自的优势和不足。首先通过对比分析目前占据领先地位的商用系统（以及一些较少为人所知的系统）,凸显交通控制系统的关键特征和差异,然后评估目前的交通控制系统是否能实现现代交通政策的职能和需求。最后,探讨了当前及未来的交通政策,以及未来10年交通控制发展的技术性蓝图,指出交通控制有望通过技术进步从有限数据时代迈入大数据时代。