Impact of family in-home quality time on person travel demand

This paper introduces the concept of Primary Family Priority Time (PFPT), which represents a high priority household decision to spend time together for in-home activities. PFPT is incorporated into a fully specified and operational activity based discrete choice model system for Copenhagen, called COMPAS, using the DaySim software platform. Structural tests and estimation results identify two important findings. First, PFPT has a place high in the model hierarchy, and second, strong interactions exist between PFPT and the other day level activity components of the model system. Forecasts are generated for a road pricing and congestion scenario by COMPAS and a comparison version of the model system that excludes PFPT. COMPAS with PFPT exhibits less mode changing and time-of-day shifting in response to pricing and congestion than the comparison version.     

Cohort analysis of driving cessation and limitation among older adults

Automobiles are central to participation in economic, social, and cultural activities in the United States. The ability to drive as one ages is fundamental to the quality of life among older adults. Driving rates decline significantly with age. Researchers using cross-sectional data have studied the reasons former drivers have stopped driving, but few have followed individuals over time to examine changes in relationships among driving cessation, socio-demographics, and health conditions. We used longitudinal data from a national sample of 20,000 observations from the University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to examine relationships among demographic variables, health conditions, and driving reduction and driving cessation. Longitudinal data allow analysis of generational differences in behavior, a major advantage over cross-sectional data which only allow comparisons of different people at one point in time. We found, like many other studies, that personal decisions to limit and eventually stop driving vary with sex, age, and health conditions. In addition, unlike most previous studies, we also found that those relationships differ by birth cohort with younger cohorts less likely to stop and limit their driving than their older counterparts. The findings indicate an evolution in the association between driving cessation and its causes.

     

Transport in Brasilia: the limits of aesthetics

The idea of moving the capital of the country from the coast to Brazil's vast but isolated interior goes back nearly two centuries. The basic motivation was to encourage construction of a national highway system, which in turn would encourage economic development of the interior and reduce regional disparities. The construction of Brasilia was an integral part of President Kubitschek's national development programme in the late 1950s, accompanied by expansion and sophistication of the energy, steel, automotive and road building industries. By 1975, highway transport times and costs had been reduced to some 20–26% of their former levels in most regions, with the Central‐West, where Brasilia is located, being the area with the greatest cost reductions. Despite the success of this development package, Brasilia's transport system has been less successful on a local and regional basis. Most of the problems within the city proper (the Pilot Plan), are due to the excessive emphasis on facilitating car traffic to the disadvantage of buses and non‐motorized traffic, while there are no local rail services. The regional transport problem stems from the location of the satellite cities far from the Pilot Plan, forcing low‐income bus riders to spend 3–4 hours daily in transit and up to 30% of the minimum wage on the journey to work. Improvements depend on institutional and policy changes affecting locational patterns, demand peaks and modal split.     

Workshop 3A: Governance,contracting, ownership and competition issues in public transport: Looking up not down

Workshop 3A focussed on matters of institutional design that seem likely to improve public transport outcomes. It started by defining high level outcome goals, as measures of ultimate public transport success, and then identified the major societal issues that public transport systems can help to resolve. These issues were separately defined for Southern African and western settings. The importance of taking an integrated approach to transport, particularly land use/transport integration, was seen as fundamental to goal achievement. Workshop papers provided many and varied examples of this importance, ranging from PPPs for major public transport projects to system design issues and contracting out of services. The Workshop included detailed discussion on paratransit development in Southern Africa, where relationship management is proving to be critical, in-line with much previous Thredbo discussion about the important role of trusting partnerships. Parallels and contrasts were drawn with paratransit in western settings. Competition in passenger rail was also a focus, with some questioning of the benefits of franchising. Discussion concluded by proposing recommendations for policy and research and suggesting agenda items for future Thredbo Conferences.     

Effectiveness of roadside crash countermeasures

In this article, an "intelligent" airline seat inventory control system is developed. Applications of the system are considered for both nonstop flights and flights with stopovers. The system developed is able to recognize a situation characterized by the number of reservations made by individual passenger classes and the number of canceled reservations at a certain moment in time before departure. The system can also make the appropriate decision without knowing the functional relationships in effect between individual variables. As in other intelligent systems, the "intelligent" airline seat inventory control system proposed here is able to generalize, adapt and learn based on new knowledge and new information. The "intelligent" airline seat inventory control system is based on fuzzy logic. The system makes on-line decisions as to whether to accept or reject any passenger request using established fuzzy rules. The "intelligent" system's results are compared with those of the EMSR model for nonstop flights. The results for flights with stopovers are compared with those obtained using integer programming. The final conclusions are very promising.     

The evolution of urban traffic control: changing policy and technology

Abstract

The history of urban traffic control (UTC) throughout the past century has been a continued race to keep pace with ever more complex policy objectives and consistently increasing vehicle demand. Many benefits can be observed from an efficient UTC system, such as reduced congestion, increased economic efficiency and improved road safety and air quality.

There have been significant advances in vehicle detection and communication technologies which have enabled a series of step changes in the capabilities of UTC systems, from early (fixed time) signal plans to modern integrated systems. A variety of UTC systems have been implemented throughout the world, each with individual strengths and weaknesses; this paper seeks to compare the leading commercial systems (and some less well known systems) to highlight the key characteristics and differences before assessing whether the current UTC systems are capable of meeting modern transport policy obligations and desires.

This paper then moves on to consider current and future transport policy and the technological landscape in which UTC will need to operate over the coming decades, where technological advancements are expected to move UTC from an era of limited data availability to an era of data abundance.     

Designing flexible transport services: guidelines for choosing the vehicle type

Abstract

This paper offers a new approach to identify realistic acceptable levels of subsidy for flexible transport services (FTSs) and then proposes guidance on selection of the most appropriate vehicle types which should be offered in the design of FTS for different environments. The guidance is evidence based and has been derived from detailed analysis of the economic performance of seven FTS pilot applications plus a further five feasibility studies implemented as part of the EU FLIPPER (Flexible Transport Services and ICT platform for Eco-Mobility in urban and rural European areas) project. A major conclusion from the analysis is that the product of the demand multiplied by the average trip distance provides a very strong indicator as to the type of vehicle which should be used. It is hoped this guidance will provide a valuable aid in designing the most suitable and cost-effective FTS solutions in both urban and rural environments.     

Design and development of a stated choice experiment for interdependent agents: accounting for interactions between buyers and sellers of urban freight services

Stated choice experiments have proven to be a powerful tool in eliciting preferences across a broad range of choice settings. This paper outlines the elements of a group-based experiment designed for interdependent urban freight stakeholders, along with the procedure to administer the questionnaire sequentially. The focus is on the design of a computer-assisted personal survey instrument and the value in disseminating the details of a new approach to design and collect stated choice data for interacting agents. The paper also discusses how to specify a reference alternative, and then how to recruit appropriate real-market or representative decision-making group members to participate in a subsequent phase of the survey, which incorporates the reference alternative and contextual information from an initial phase. The empirical strategy, set out in some detail, provides a new framework within which to understand more fully the role that specific attributes, such as variable user charges, influencing freight distribution chains might play, and who in the supply chain is affected by specific attributes in terms of willingness to pay for the gains in distribution efficiency.

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