Predicting queue variability to enable analysis of overload risk

ABSTRACT

Predicting the risk of traffic demands and delays exceeding critical limits at road junctions, airports, hospitals, etc., requires knowing how both mean and variance of queue size vary over time. Microscopic simulation can explore variability but is computationally demanding and gives only sample results. A computationally efficient approximation to the mean is used in many modelling tools, but only empirical extensions for variance in particular situations have been available. The paper derives theoretical formulae for time-dependent and equilibrium variance, believed to be novel and to apply generally to queues covered by the Pollaczek–Khinchin mean formula, and offering possible structural insights. These are applied in an extended approximation giving mutually consistent mean and variance estimates with improved accuracy. Tests on oversaturated peak demand cases are compared with Markov probabilistic simulation, demonstrating accuracy (R^2?>?0.99) for typical random, priority-like (M/M/1) and traffic-signal-like (M/D/1) queues. Implications for risk analysis, planning and policy are considered.     

Model Test on Grouting Law in Dynamic Water-Rich Sand Layers by the Electric Resistance Method北大核心CSCD

In order to study the diffusion law of grouting slurry in the water-rich sand layer under flowing water conditions, a grouting test model consisting of a main test system, a grouting system, and a measurement system was developed. And for detecting the diffusion scope of the grouts, a new resistivity method was proposed. It is found that the relationship between grouting pressure and grouting rate during the test is strong. Under hydrodynamic conditions, the grouting slurry diffuses elliptically. Due to gravity and the effect of the upper water flow, the center of gravity of the ellipsoid is below the grouting outlet, and the grouting effectively improves the physical and mechanical properties of water-rich sand bodies. At the same time, the resistivity method has a good application effect on the detection of grouting diffusion range. The range of slurry diffusion obtained by the resistivity method is basically consistent with the boundary of the stone body after excavation, indicating that the resistivity method is reliable for detection of grouting range in dynamic water-rich sand layer. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Analysis on the Characteristics and Development Trends of the Support Technology of High Ground Stress Tunnels in China北大核心CSCD

Combining the present situation and development trend of different tunnel support technologies at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the problems of rockburst in hard rock tunnels and large deformation in soft rock tunnels caused by high ground stress. It is concluded that: 1) regarding the rockburst problem, the current support technology is mainly influenced by the rock burst mechanism which is dominated by static factors, and so the used support components are generally of smaller deformation performance and "passive support" properties; 2) as the rockburst is the result of dynamic-static stress coupling, and only the anchor bolt has the "active support" attribute in the current "shotcrete+anchor bolt+wire net" support system, so the best support system should have the two functions of active support and energy release in terms of the rockburst problem, and the key focus of the research and development is anchorage members; 3) there are three main support types for large deformation in soft rock tunnels, e.g. the heavy support, layered support and yielding support. Among them, the heavy support system in underground cavern with large deformation is easy to induce excessive surrounding rock pressure, and so the applicable conditions are limited. The layered support system is still not the best choice due to its immature theoretical study, difficult determination of the thickness value and the installation time of each support layer and the interference to construction progress. With the characteristics of timely support and yielding while supporting, the yielding support system can give full play to the performance values of surrounding rocks and supporting materials, and make both of them reach the optimal state, so it is the best choice for supporting the soft rock tunnels with large deformations. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Analysis of Ground Response and Structure Stress Induced by PBA Method北大核心CSCD

The application of prefabricated tunnel technology has been become a new research field both in China and abroad. Based on the running tunnel between Yufuhe station and Wangfuzhuang station of Jinan rail transit line R1, a new prefabricated tunnel construction technology, the PBA method is presented. This paper makes a detailed discussion on section form, supporting scheme and construction process of the PBA method. In this study, 3D a new 3D numerical model for PBA method is presented by finite difference numerical simulation software Flac and the construction processes are modeled. The rule of ground surface settlement, ground deformation and structural stress caused by PBA method is studied in detail. Results show that the structure of PBA method can effectively control the deformation magnitude and scope. Stress concentration appears at the prefabricated connection parts and the reinforcement needs to check. The total assembled structure forms the load-bearing system after the completion of the lateral wall. The built-in depth of the precast pile and pile bottom grouting quality should to be ensured to control the displacement of the precast piles. The results of this study will be a useful reference for similar projects in the future. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Experimental Study on Mechanical Behaviors of Prefabricated Column-Base Joint with Grouted Sleeves Connecting Longitudinal Reinforcements in Tunnels北大核心CSCD

In recent years, large shield tunnels with internal double-decked lanes have been developing rapidly in the field of highway tunnels, and prefabricated elements are increasingly adopted in internal structure. Based on the columns-base joint in Zhuguanglu tunnel, which is under construction, 2 full-scale specimens are designed for the quasi-static test, one specimen is connected with grout sleeve splicing and the other is cast in place. The test results show that: the bearing capacity of specimen with grout sleeve splicing is equal to that of cast-in-situ specimen, but its ductility and energy dissipation capacity are worse than that of the cast-in-situ specimen. And for the specimen with grout sleeve splicing, there exists crack concentration on the area above the sleeve. The crack width is too larger in this area. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Analysis on the Effects of Overloading on the Mechanical Properties of Tunnel Structures in the Silty Ground --A Case Study of Sutong River-crossing GIL Utility Tunnel北大核心CSCD

Based on the Sutong GIL utility tunnel project, which is constructed by the shield machine under the river, and as for the overloading problem at the river bank slope during operating period, the refined threedimensional finite element model was established to study the deformation and cracking characteristics of the tunnel segment structure under different forms of overloading. The evolution laws of section convergence, joint opening and structural stress were analyzed, and the structure damage mechanisms were revealed under conditions of large area loading and local loading. The surface-surcharge control standard was proposed. For the big diameter shield tunneling crossing the silty clay, the research results show that: (1) the deformation failure process is divided into three stages under large area loading condition, taking the design load and compressive yield of rebars inside haunch as the critical points respectively. The first stage is characterized by the elastic stress, the second stage is in plastic state with fracture, and the third stage is accelerating deformation and instability stage. The vertical convergence is 110.5 mm with no opening of joints when rebars are yielded; (2)the deformation failure process under local loading condition is also divided into elasticity, plasticity and instability stages, taking the design load and tensile yield of rebars outside haunch as the critical points respectively. The vertical convergence is 152.6 mm with joint opening of 4.36 mm; (3) the early-warning values of additional stress on the ground under conditions of large area loading and local loading are 110 kPa and 70 kPa respectively. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Sea Cucumber Moratorium and Livelihood Diversity in Papua New Guinea

Livelihood diversity factors such as flexibility within fisheries, geographical mobility, reallocation of fishing effort into the broader economy, and the non-material benefits that fisheries provide are important areas of research in marine policy. We use two small-scale fisheries related socio-economic surveys of communities in the Tigak Islands of Papua New Guinea. The first conducted 5 years before a ban on the harvesting of sea cucumbers was imposed and the second from the present day, 5 years after the initiation of the ban—with the objectives of exploring changes in household fishing strategies (types and numbers of species targeted) and to identify any important socioeconomic factors that help explain those changes. Fishing's contribution to total household income has increased significantly (p = 0.019) up from 61% in 2004 to 73% in 2014 with the percentage of female residents living in a household now positively and significantly (p = 0.018) associated with fishing income. The average number of species categories targeted per household increased insignificantly while households with more women are significantly (p = 0.018) less likely to target more species than households with more men. Moreover, customary management practices contribute to this difference. Together, these results show that households are not worse off financially 5 years after the ban on sea cucumber harvesting and that gendered seascape use has implications for the role of livelihood diversity as a marine policy tool.     

永磁同步电机直接转矩控制的建模与仿真研究

为了研究永磁同步电机直接转矩控制系统的动态性能,利用Matlab/Simulink建立了永磁同步电机直接转矩控制模型,并对电机的启动性能以及负载为阶跃输入情况进行了仿真分析,仿真结果表明所构建的系统模型动态过程符合实际调速系统运动过程。     

感应电机矢量控制系统的建模与仿真研究

为了研究异步感应电机矢量控制系统动态性能,利用Matlab/Simulink建立了基于电压空间矢量脉宽调制(SVPWM)的感应电机矢量控制模型,并对电机的启动性能以及负载为阶跃输入情况进行了仿真分析。仿真结果表明所构建的系统模型动态过程符合实际调速系统运动过程。     

船舶电网谐波分析

本文介绍了电力推进船舶谐波,阐明了谐波产生的原因和谐波的危害,分析总结了抑制船舶谐波的方法和措施。