Collection, spillback, and dissipation in pedestrian evacuation: A network-based method

We present a method of predicting pedestrian route choice behavior and physical congestion during the evacuation of indoor areas with internal obstacles. Under the proposed method, a network is first constructed by discretizing the space into regular hexagonal cells and giving these cells potentials before a modified cell transmission model is employed to predict the evolution of pedestrian flow in the network over time and space. Several properties of this cell transmission model are explored. The method can be used to predict the evolution of pedestrian flow over time and space in indoor areas with internal obstacles and to investigate the collection, spillback, and dissipation behavior of pedestrians passing through a bottleneck. The cell transmission model is further extended to imitate the movements of multiple flows of pedestrians with different destinations. An algorithm based on generalized cell potential is also developed to assign the pedestrian flow.     

Rapid first-stage tests of on-ship infection

Protection against on-ship infectious disease—whether due to mishap or to harmful purpose—faces special situational problems. Sometimes, when infection levels on board have reached threshold levels, emergency actions are required. Often, the most thorough strategies for responding to threat are not feasible. A rapid first-stage test (RFT) is a fast, minimally invasive procedure used to rule out from possible infection a large percentage of an infection-threatened group. Prevention and control of on-ship infection need to combine various interconnected tactics. When timely criterion tests are not possible, the medical team must adopt fast alternative measures. The methods used to summarize protection against on-ship infectious agents included a scientific literature review and a web search. The fields of the review were maritime, health, and technology sources. Special attention was paid to material dealing with risks and threats of on-ship penetration by infectious agents, on-ship infection prevalence thresholds, and rapid diagnostic screens. The Bayes rule and the law of large numbers were applied to the analysis, for large on-ship populations, of RFT indications of crossing of an infection prevalence threshold. The increasing risk of serious on-ship infection—either accidental or purposeful—calls for a multi-layered protection approach. RFTs are a key part of the outer layer of such a defense. Well-designed and well-administered RFTs provide several advantages for defense against on-ship infection: low-cost, non-invasive, fast, and focuses on a drastically smaller number of infection possibilities.     

Black Boxes - Pathetic progress but some success now in sight

Little has been written about the ship demolition market, an essential element in the supply/demand balance for shipping. Either technical or economic obsolescence may be the cause for scrapping a ship, where the latter is strongly influenced not only by anticipated freight market levels, but the rate at which more efficient ships are being introduced. The scrap value of a ship is a function both of the realizable value of the materials within the ship and cost of demolition. Both are strongly influenced by the cost structures prevailing in the likely country of demolition. The paper explores not only the fundamentals of the ship demolition market, but the trends from the 1960s to the present. The shipbreaking market has moved in that time from being West European-centred to Asian-centred, concentrating for some years in Taiwan, but now shifting to the Indian subcontinent.     

Characteristics of premium transit services that affect mode choice

This research seeks to improve the understanding of the full range of determinants for mode choice behavior and to offer practical solutions to practitioners on representing and distinguishing these characteristics in travel demand forecasting models. The principal findings were that the representation of awareness of transit services is significantly different than the underlying assumption of mode choice and forecasting models that there is perfect awareness and consideration of all modes. Furthermore, inclusion of non-traditional transit attributes and attitudes can improve mode choice models and reduce bias constants. Additional methods and analyses are necessary to bring these results into practice. The work is being conducted in two phases. This paper documents the results of Phase I, which included data collection for one case study city (Salt Lake City), research and analysis of non-traditional transit attributes in mode choice models, awareness of transit services, and recommendations for bringing these analyses into practice. Phase II will include data collection for two additional case study cities (Chicago and Charlotte) with minor modifications based on limitations identified in Phase I, additional analyses where Phase I results indicated a need, and a demonstration of the research in practice for at least one case study city.     

Examining the influence of firm performance on business risk-taking and the mediation effect of scale of operations in the container terminal industry

Container shipping and its related service sectors help accelerate globalization of the world economy. This industry has been experiencing rapid growth, prompting container terminal operators to increase their handling capacity in response. Providing container terminal services requires substantial capital investment in physical assets such as cargo handling facilities and information systems. On the other hand, operating container terminals is a long-term investment that typically spans several business cycles. Hence prudent asset management using appropriate tools is critical for container terminal operators to sustain their businesses. Generally, due to risk-adverseness, investors are unwilling to take more risk in their investment unless they can reap a higher return. Contrary to this argument, this study finds no direct influence of better firm performance as a proxy of higher return on business risk-taking by container terminal operators. Instead, scale of operations is positively associated with business risk-taking, suggesting that container terminal operators with a larger scale of operations are willing to take more business risk.     

海运业应上升为国家战略性服务产业——访中国船东协会常务副会长兼秘书长张守国

我国海运业的迅猛发展令全球瞩目。截至“十一五”末，我国水上运输船舶总规模已突破2亿载重吨。其中，海运船队达到1．15亿载重吨，居世界第四位；全国港口完成货物吞吐量突破100亿吨，集装箱吞吐量达1．64亿TEU（标准箱），均位居世界首位；海船船员69万人，居世界第—位。从“大而不强”走向真正的强大，中国海运业依然任重道远。近日，中国船东协会常务副会长兼秘书长张守国在接受本刊记者专访时特别强调：航运强国建设中加强“软实力”建设最为关键。     

Assessing a maritime service website prototype in a ship bridge simulator: navigators’ experiences and perceptions of novel e-Navigation solutions

The aim of this study was to assess proof of concept and usability of a maritime service website prototype in a full-mission ship bridge simulator through Swedish mariners’ experiences and perceptions. This test was part of the European Commission’s EfficienSea2 project for e-navigation. The prototype was intended as an aid to existing standard systems and methodologies for planning, executing and monitoring voyages. The study began with 5 days of simulator trials focused on today’s standard practices. This served as a baseline to compare to subsequent 4 days of simulator trials testing the prototype. For data collection, observations, video footage, interviews, and eye tracking were used. Data analysis included breaking apart the qualitative data to capture the perceptions of the participants, and a preliminary analysis of eye-tracking data as a complement. The results suggested that the prototype could be more suitable for a route planning stage, that the participants were familiar with similar existing solutions from other manufacturers, and that the contents of the tool would be most beneficial if integrated within the Electronic Chart Display and Information Systems (ECDIS). There is a pressing need for the novel solutions to be user needs-driven, integrated with the existing technologies, and standardized across the domain, and these processes must go hand-in-hand with accounting for all involved stakeholders, procedures, regulations, and training, as this will alter the course of shipping.     

The management of the rural transportation problem in Nigeria

In spite of the fact that about 70% of Nigeria's population live in rural areas, these areas have remained largely inaccessible. Not only do they lack motorable roads and organized public transport but also field surveys indicate that nearly all rural inhabitants do not have a private car. A Directorate of Food, Roads and Rural Infrastructure has been set up to manage the inaccessibility problem, among others. Whereas there are several conventional approaches to the management of the rural transportation problem, the Nigerian approach relies on the provision of roads. This restrictive approach with an emphasis on locational to the neglect of personal accessibility has various limitations which are analysed.     

Understanding Recreational Boater Attitudes to Zoning in a Proposed Marine Protected Area

Although the success of marine protected areas (MPAs) and associated zoning schemes is largely dependent on stakeholder acceptance and support, there have been relatively few studies examining the response of recreational stakeholders to MPA proposals. This study investigates the response of recreational boaters to a proposed MPA in British Columbia, Canada. Using a structured questionnaire (n = 543) and a focus group (n = 6), the research examines the level of support for the concept of marine zoning and identifies key factors influencing support or opposition. Results indicate that a small majority of recreational boaters support the concept of marine zoning, but that there are areas of concern that ought to be addressed as MPA implementation proceeds. Support for zoning was strongly related to perceived benefits, particularly environmental benefits. Furthermore, perceived benefits overall were found to outweigh concerns as determinants of recreational boater support for zoning. Major dimensions of opposition included perceptions of over-regulation, loss of access for boating, and mistrust of the government. A suggestion is that such concerns may be mitigated through focused communication and meaningful involvement of boaters in the zoning process.