Marine accident analysis for collision and grounding in oil tanker using FTA method

In this study, collision and grounding data registered in GISIS (Global Integrated Shipping Information System) were investigated for oil tankers. The database includes the information of the collision and grounding accidents during the period between 1998 and 2010 in oil tankers. The risk assessments were carried out using fault tree analysis (FTA) programme for the incidents as collision and grounding occurred in oil tankers. In this study, we were able to investigate first the potential problems which cause the collision and grounding accidents have been determined, second, the occurrence of accidents has been shown with causal factors by the FTA method, and, finally, the significance degree of the initial events causing occurrence of accidents have been put forth. Collision in oil tanker resulted in economical loss (81%), pollution (6%) and death or injury (13%). Grounding in oil tanker resulted in economical loss (91%) and pollution (9%). According to the FTA results, the main reason for the accidents originating from human error is as follows: for collision accidents, Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREG) violation and the lack of communication between vessels; and for grounding accidents, the interpretation failure of the officer on watch and lack of communication in the bridge resource management.     

波浪作用下30万吨级油轮撞击能量研究

通过物理模型试验,研究不规则波作用下30万吨级油轮撞击能量,分析了主要影响因素HT、LB、TT0、D对撞击速度的影响规律。结果表明:撞击速度与HT成正比;与LB成幂次关系;与TT0也成正比,但TT0=1时船舶撞击码头与波浪产生共振,撞击速度出现极大值;压载时的撞击速度大于满载时的撞击速度,撞击速度与吃水成负相关。提出了30万吨级油轮撞击能量的计算公式,与青岛港原油码头三期工程和青岛益佳集团燃油码头工程的物理模型试验结果对比,具有较好的计算精度,可供工程设计参考。     

徐圩防波堤工程桶式基础结构设计

桶式基础结构是一种新型防波堤结构,目前尚没有成熟的设计标准和施工工艺。结合连云港徐圩防波堤工程,介绍此结构的设计荷载工况、结构模型试验、有限元分析方法、配筋方法。通过对比土体-结构相互作用模型和简化独立桶体模型,说明两种分析方法的优劣。以实例对比说明中国规范和美国混凝土学会ACI 318规范关于双向板裂缝宽度的计算方法。     

铁路连续梁桥下部结构地震力计算

结合两座铁路连续梁桥的工程设计,基于反应谱法对连续梁桥下部结构的地震力计算方法进行了对比分析,旨在得出规范简化算法在连续梁中的适用性。对规范简化算法及有限元全桥模型计算方法的参数取值、影响因素及存在问题进行了探讨,在模型误差很小的前提下对比分析了多桥计算结果,得出以下主要结论：（1）主墩墩高接近的连续梁桥纵向地震力计算可采用规范简化算法,固定墩结果偏保守,活动墩结果略小;横向地震力需采用有限元全桥模型进行计算。（2）主墩墩高差异较大的连续梁桥,规范简化算法误差太大。     

Collection, spillback, and dissipation in pedestrian evacuation: A network-based method

We present a method of predicting pedestrian route choice behavior and physical congestion during the evacuation of indoor areas with internal obstacles. Under the proposed method, a network is first constructed by discretizing the space into regular hexagonal cells and giving these cells potentials before a modified cell transmission model is employed to predict the evolution of pedestrian flow in the network over time and space. Several properties of this cell transmission model are explored. The method can be used to predict the evolution of pedestrian flow over time and space in indoor areas with internal obstacles and to investigate the collection, spillback, and dissipation behavior of pedestrians passing through a bottleneck. The cell transmission model is further extended to imitate the movements of multiple flows of pedestrians with different destinations. An algorithm based on generalized cell potential is also developed to assign the pedestrian flow.     

Rapid first-stage tests of on-ship infection

Protection against on-ship infectious disease—whether due to mishap or to harmful purpose—faces special situational problems. Sometimes, when infection levels on board have reached threshold levels, emergency actions are required. Often, the most thorough strategies for responding to threat are not feasible. A rapid first-stage test (RFT) is a fast, minimally invasive procedure used to rule out from possible infection a large percentage of an infection-threatened group. Prevention and control of on-ship infection need to combine various interconnected tactics. When timely criterion tests are not possible, the medical team must adopt fast alternative measures. The methods used to summarize protection against on-ship infectious agents included a scientific literature review and a web search. The fields of the review were maritime, health, and technology sources. Special attention was paid to material dealing with risks and threats of on-ship penetration by infectious agents, on-ship infection prevalence thresholds, and rapid diagnostic screens. The Bayes rule and the law of large numbers were applied to the analysis, for large on-ship populations, of RFT indications of crossing of an infection prevalence threshold. The increasing risk of serious on-ship infection—either accidental or purposeful—calls for a multi-layered protection approach. RFTs are a key part of the outer layer of such a defense. Well-designed and well-administered RFTs provide several advantages for defense against on-ship infection: low-cost, non-invasive, fast, and focuses on a drastically smaller number of infection possibilities.     

Black Boxes - Pathetic progress but some success now in sight

Little has been written about the ship demolition market, an essential element in the supply/demand balance for shipping. Either technical or economic obsolescence may be the cause for scrapping a ship, where the latter is strongly influenced not only by anticipated freight market levels, but the rate at which more efficient ships are being introduced. The scrap value of a ship is a function both of the realizable value of the materials within the ship and cost of demolition. Both are strongly influenced by the cost structures prevailing in the likely country of demolition. The paper explores not only the fundamentals of the ship demolition market, but the trends from the 1960s to the present. The shipbreaking market has moved in that time from being West European-centred to Asian-centred, concentrating for some years in Taiwan, but now shifting to the Indian subcontinent.     

Optimal traffic assignment to urban streets with air pollution consideration

Traffic assignment is usually determined solely on the basis of minimum travel time through the network. The present study on traffic assignment has taken into account not only traffic performance but also air quality over the street. A simple model of highway air pollution is developed by considering macroscopic material balance of polluted air mass over a segment of a highway that passes through an urban area, A new traffic assignment scheme has been developed based on the air pollution model. The optimal traffic assignment obtained by the new scheme is affected significantly by meteorological conditions.     

Characteristics of premium transit services that affect mode choice

This research seeks to improve the understanding of the full range of determinants for mode choice behavior and to offer practical solutions to practitioners on representing and distinguishing these characteristics in travel demand forecasting models. The principal findings were that the representation of awareness of transit services is significantly different than the underlying assumption of mode choice and forecasting models that there is perfect awareness and consideration of all modes. Furthermore, inclusion of non-traditional transit attributes and attitudes can improve mode choice models and reduce bias constants. Additional methods and analyses are necessary to bring these results into practice. The work is being conducted in two phases. This paper documents the results of Phase I, which included data collection for one case study city (Salt Lake City), research and analysis of non-traditional transit attributes in mode choice models, awareness of transit services, and recommendations for bringing these analyses into practice. Phase II will include data collection for two additional case study cities (Chicago and Charlotte) with minor modifications based on limitations identified in Phase I, additional analyses where Phase I results indicated a need, and a demonstration of the research in practice for at least one case study city.     

Examining the influence of firm performance on business risk-taking and the mediation effect of scale of operations in the container terminal industry

Container shipping and its related service sectors help accelerate globalization of the world economy. This industry has been experiencing rapid growth, prompting container terminal operators to increase their handling capacity in response. Providing container terminal services requires substantial capital investment in physical assets such as cargo handling facilities and information systems. On the other hand, operating container terminals is a long-term investment that typically spans several business cycles. Hence prudent asset management using appropriate tools is critical for container terminal operators to sustain their businesses. Generally, due to risk-adverseness, investors are unwilling to take more risk in their investment unless they can reap a higher return. Contrary to this argument, this study finds no direct influence of better firm performance as a proxy of higher return on business risk-taking by container terminal operators. Instead, scale of operations is positively associated with business risk-taking, suggesting that container terminal operators with a larger scale of operations are willing to take more business risk.