Prediction of wave parameters by using fuzzy inference system and the parametric models along the south coasts of the Black Sea

Forecasting of sea-state characteristics has a great importance in coastal and ocean engineering studies. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate performances of Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and several parametric methods in the Black Sea. For this purpose, different fuzzy models with different input combinations were developed for two different wind data sources (TSMS and ECMWF) at two offshore buoy stations. It also aimed to apply several approaches to event-based data sets for wave predictions. Generally, in literature the tendency is to use time series data for wave predictions. In this kind of prediction approach, lagged time series data are taken as inputs and current or future variables are taken as output. In this study, event-based data for each independent storm were extracted from time series data. Simultaneous or concurrent data of wind speed, blowing duration, fetch length and wave characteristics were detected for each single storm. These event data were then used to set up models. The hindcast results were validated with significant wave height and mean wave period data recorded in Hopa and Sinop buoy stations. The performance of developed fuzzy models were also compared with that of four different parametric methods (Wilson, SPM, Jonswap, and CEM methods) applied for two wind data sources at both buoy stations. Finally, it was determined that in the prediction of both wave parameters (H _s and T _z) the ANFIS models (R = 0.66, squared correlation coefficient, and MAE = 0.37 m, mean absolute error, for the best model in prediction of H _s) were more accurate than the parametric methods (R = 0.63 and MAE = 0.75 m for the best model in prediction of H _s).     

Marine accident analysis for collision and grounding in oil tanker using FTA method

In this study, collision and grounding data registered in GISIS (Global Integrated Shipping Information System) were investigated for oil tankers. The database includes the information of the collision and grounding accidents during the period between 1998 and 2010 in oil tankers. The risk assessments were carried out using fault tree analysis (FTA) programme for the incidents as collision and grounding occurred in oil tankers. In this study, we were able to investigate first the potential problems which cause the collision and grounding accidents have been determined, second, the occurrence of accidents has been shown with causal factors by the FTA method, and, finally, the significance degree of the initial events causing occurrence of accidents have been put forth. Collision in oil tanker resulted in economical loss (81%), pollution (6%) and death or injury (13%). Grounding in oil tanker resulted in economical loss (91%) and pollution (9%). According to the FTA results, the main reason for the accidents originating from human error is as follows: for collision accidents, Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREG) violation and the lack of communication between vessels; and for grounding accidents, the interpretation failure of the officer on watch and lack of communication in the bridge resource management.     

Perceptions of foreign exchange rate risk in the shipping industry

This is an analysis of the impact of exchange rate risk on the performance of major shipping companies from two important maritime nations, Japan and Norway. For the shipping industry, such risk is exacerbated by freight rates fixed in US dollars which must then be converted into numerous other currencies. The appreciation of the Yen against the US dollar has been such that Japanese companies have been impelled to insulate themselves from exchange rate movements by natural hedging. For Norway, where fluctuations of the Krone against the US dollar have been less dramatic, exposure has been maintained, allowing an element of speculation. In both cases the market indicates that exchange rate risk is a significant factor in the determination of corporate performance.     

Black Boxes - Pathetic progress but some success now in sight

Little has been written about the ship demolition market, an essential element in the supply/demand balance for shipping. Either technical or economic obsolescence may be the cause for scrapping a ship, where the latter is strongly influenced not only by anticipated freight market levels, but the rate at which more efficient ships are being introduced. The scrap value of a ship is a function both of the realizable value of the materials within the ship and cost of demolition. Both are strongly influenced by the cost structures prevailing in the likely country of demolition. The paper explores not only the fundamentals of the ship demolition market, but the trends from the 1960s to the present. The shipbreaking market has moved in that time from being West European-centred to Asian-centred, concentrating for some years in Taiwan, but now shifting to the Indian subcontinent.     

Evaluation of factors for carrier selection in the China Pearl River delta

The efficient integration of logistics modes is critical for international cargo shipping. The local transportation connecting to the export port then plays a vital role in such integration. This paper investigates the problems of carrier selection in the China Pearl River delta area, with respect to international shipping. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model is constructed based on a comprehensive industrial interviews and statistical analysis. Rather than simply ranking the given alternatives, we use AHP is used to analyse the weakness and strength of impacting factors in carrier selection. The model is implemented under different types of shipper. Seven criteria are statistically summarized from the questionnaire for evaluating eight different modes. The results are useful to those liner companies serving the PRD region in relationship to port selection and fleet deployment.     

Attitudes toward Participation in Cooperative Coastal Management: Four European Case Studies

Findings are reported of the VALCOAST project that had as one of its research objectives to ascertain: (a) stakeholder willingness to participate and cooperate in coastal management (CM), given local and national CM practices; and (b) stakeholder assessment of the "accessibility" and "friendliness" of current CM processes. The project involved case studies and stakeholder interviews in Belgium, Greece, Spain, and the UK. Major findings include: (1) most stakeholders are willing to cooperate in three out of the four case areas, but not to the same extent; (2) the participating "officials" in the case studies are expecting the stakeholders to be less willing to cooperate than the latter indicate; (3) stakeholders in all case studies do not expect to be heard by those responsible for CM, find it difficult to learn about the relevant institutional arrangements, and consider the communication of the objectives and anticipated impacts of CM policies to be inadequate. It is concluded that the strong evidence of stakeholders' potential willingness to cooperate in local initiatives is very encouraging for a devolved, regional approach to European Union coastal management policies, provided that this potential is capitalized upon in such policy processes.     

Understanding Recreational Boater Attitudes to Zoning in a Proposed Marine Protected Area

Although the success of marine protected areas (MPAs) and associated zoning schemes is largely dependent on stakeholder acceptance and support, there have been relatively few studies examining the response of recreational stakeholders to MPA proposals. This study investigates the response of recreational boaters to a proposed MPA in British Columbia, Canada. Using a structured questionnaire (n = 543) and a focus group (n = 6), the research examines the level of support for the concept of marine zoning and identifies key factors influencing support or opposition. Results indicate that a small majority of recreational boaters support the concept of marine zoning, but that there are areas of concern that ought to be addressed as MPA implementation proceeds. Support for zoning was strongly related to perceived benefits, particularly environmental benefits. Furthermore, perceived benefits overall were found to outweigh concerns as determinants of recreational boater support for zoning. Major dimensions of opposition included perceptions of over-regulation, loss of access for boating, and mistrust of the government. A suggestion is that such concerns may be mitigated through focused communication and meaningful involvement of boaters in the zoning process.     

Can Coastal Management Programs Protect and Promote Water-Dependent Uses?

Anecdotal evidence indicates that commercial and recreational water-dependent uses have been under development pressure in recent years, and in some cases have been converted to other uses. The conversion of water-dependent uses, which range from commercial shipyards to recreational marinas, may have many public costs, including the loss of access to public trust waters, the loss of jobs and associated economic activity, and the loss of traditional working waterfronts. This two-part study investigated the role of five coastal management programs in the northeastern United States in managing, monitoring, and protecting water-dependent uses. First, coastal managers in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York and New Jersey were interviewed to assess the conversion problem. Second, in collaboration with New York City-based Regional Plan Association, follow-up interviews were conducted with coastal managers and local planners in Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey to gain greater insight into the role of coastal management programs and local governments in managing and promoting water-dependent uses. This article presents select findings from this study and discusses recommendations for improving the capacity of coastal management programs and local governments to manage water-dependent uses for the benefit of the public.     

In situ colonization of marine biofilms on UNS S32760 duplex stainless steel coupons in areas with different water qualities: Implications for corrosion potential behavior

In the presence of biofilms, stainless steels （SS） exhibits an increase in corrosion potential, called ennoblement. In the present study, the corrosion potential （Eco,） behavior of the duplex SS UNS S32760 was recorded simultaneously with the in situ marine biofilm formation in two areas at Arraial do Cabo, Southeastern Brazil. The biofilm at Forno Harbor （an anthropogenically disturbed area） was characterized by higher relative abundances of Bacteria at day 2, followed by diatoms （especially Navicula sp.） on day 10 and dinoflagellates on day 18, whereas no clear trend was recorded at Cabo Frio Island （an undisturbed area）. The ennoblement of Ecor values was site-dependent. In a complementary laboratory assay, biofilms were removed and the Eco values registered in sterile conditions for the subsequent 10 days and corroborated in situ results. Understanding biofilms and SS interactions has important implications for materials science and engineering decisions as well as helping to fill in imnortant gaps in this knowledge.