PPPs — True Financial Costs and Hidden Returns

The cost of using private finance is at the centre of the public private partnerships (PPPs) debate, but until now most works considered only the direct financial costs such as the loan interest rate and the shareholders return on equity and were based on various secondary sources. This paper focuses on seven shadow toll deals closed in Portugal between 1999 and 2002 and reports the financial costs of the PPP model considering also the associated transaction costs and is based on detailed information included in each concession's financial base case. The transaction costs include financial costs such as banking fees, due diligence costs and the impact of all cash distribution traps, such as reserve accounts or minimum-level of debt ratios. The PPP financial costs were then compared with the costs arising from raising public debt through a government or a public agency bond. Our analysis shows that the PPP ‘true' financing costs are, on average, 370 basis points above the cost of raising public debt and that the ‘transaction costs' account for around 40% of that financial premium.     

A congested and dwell time dependent transit corridor assignment model

This research proposes an equilibrium assignment model for congested public transport corridors in urban areas. In this model, journey times incorporate the effect of bus queuing on travel times and boarding and alighting passengers on dwell times at stops. The model also considers limited bus capacity leading to longer waiting times and more uncomfortable journeys. The proposed model is applied to an example network, and the results are compared with those obtained in a recent study. This is followed by the analysis and discussion of a real case application in Santiago de Chile. Finally, different boarding and alighting times and different vehicle types are evaluated. In all cases, demand on express services tends to be underestimated by using constant dwell time assignment models, leading to potential planning errors for these lines. The results demonstrate the importance of considering demand dependent dwell times in the assignment process, especially at high demand levels when the capacity constraint should also be considered. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wheel life prediction model – an alternative to the FASTSIM algorithm for RCF

In this article, a wheel life prediction model considering wear and rolling contact fatigue (RCF) is developed and applied to a heavy-haul locomotive. For wear calculations, a methodology based on Archard's wear calculation theory is used. The simulated wear depth is compared with profile measurements within 100,000?km. For RCF, a shakedown-based theory is applied locally, using the FaStrip algorithm to estimate the tangential stresses instead of FASTSIM. The differences between the two algorithms on damage prediction models are studied. The running distance between the two reprofiling due to RCF is estimated based on a Wöhler-like relationship developed from laboratory test results from the literature and the Palmgren-Miner rule. The simulated crack locations and their angles are compared with a five-year field study. Calculations to study the effects of electro-dynamic braking, track gauge, harder wheel material and the increase of axle load on the wheel life are also carried out.     

Existence of urban-scale macroscopic fundamental diagrams: Some experimental findings

A field experiment in Yokohama (Japan) reveals that a macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) linking space-mean flow, density and speed exists on a large urban area. The experiment used a combination of fixed detectors and floating vehicle probes as sensors. It was observed that when the somewhat chaotic scatter-plots of speed vs. density from individual fixed detectors were aggregated the scatter nearly disappeared and points grouped neatly along a smoothly declining curve. This evidence suggests, but does not prove, that an MFD exists for the complete network because the fixed detectors only measure conditions in their proximity, which may not represent the whole network. Therefore, the analysis was enriched with data from GPS-equipped taxis, which covered the entire network. The new data were filtered to ensure that only full-taxi trips (i.e., representative of automobile trips) were retained in the sample. The space-mean speeds and densities at different times-of-day were then estimated for the whole study area using relevant parts of the detector and taxi data sets. These estimates were still found to lie close to a smoothly declining curve with deviations smaller than those of individual links – and entirely explained by experimental error. The analysis also revealed a fixed relation between the space-mean flows on the whole network, which are easy to estimate given the existence of an MFD, and the trip completion rates, which dynamically measure accessibility.     

无车日活动公众参与的引导策略及信息传递

为了制定引导公众意识与行为转变的策略,尤其是对无车日的规划以及为将其应用于其他可持续性城市交通措施中提供指南.介绍了几种有关引导公众对于公共交通与其他可持续性交通方式的意识与行为转变的策略,重点介绍了公众目前与将来可以使用的可持续性交通方式,以及公众尤其是决策者对于城市交通问题的态度及其对于可持续性交通解决方案(如步行、骑自行车与使用公共交通工具等)的看法.最后,提出媒体是提高公众对于可持续性交通活动意识的有效渠道.     

Traffic congestion and economic context: changes of spatiotemporal patterns of traffic travel times during crisis and post-crisis periods

Transportation - This paper aims to evaluate the impacts of the economic context on traffic congestion and its consequential effects on private vehicle accessibility. We conduct a long-term...     

Integrated population synthesis and workplace assignment using an efficient optimization-based person-household matching method

Transportation - Large scale activity-based simulation models inform a variety of transportation and planning policies using models that often rely on fixed or flexible workplace location in a...     

Factors Affecting Disaster Preparedness,Response, and Recovery Using the Community Capitals Framework

Abstract

Disaster research often focuses on how and why communities are affected by a discrete extreme event. We used the community capitals framework to understand how community characteristics influence their preparedness, response to, and recovery from successive or multiple disasters using the 1964 Good Friday Earthquake and the 1989 Exxon Valdez Oil Spill as case studies. This study assesses community response to these disasters by reviewing published literature on impacts to create profiles for six communities and by identifying community capitals before and during these disasters, and throughout the long-term recovery. While the presence of rich natural capitals commonly contributed resources to pre-disaster planning and long-term recovery, restriction of resource access immediately following the disasters was detrimental to many communities. Communities with strong political, social, and financial capitals tended to fare better immediately following disasters, enabling longer-term processes of transformation or recovery. However, in some communities the oil spill undermined these capitals more than the earthquake and resulting tsunami. In understanding how use and reliance on community capitals can lead to varied recovery success from different kinds of disasters, these findings can help coastal managers and planners prepare for future disasters.     

An experimental investigation by towing tank on VIV of a long flexible cylinder for deepwater riser application

In this study, the dynamic response of a vertical flexible cylinder vibrating at low mode numbers with combined x?y motion was investigated in a towing tank. The uniform flow was simulated by towing the flexible cylinder along the tank in still water; therefore, the turbulence intensity of the free flow was negligible in obtaining more reliable results. A lower branch of dominant frequencies with micro vibration amplitude was found in both cross-flow and in-line directions. This justifiable discrepancy was likely caused by an initial lock-in. The maximum attainable amplitude, modal analysis and x?y trajectory in cross-flow and in-line directions are reported here and compared with previous literature, along with some good agreements and different observations that were obtained from the study. Drag and lift coefficients are also evaluated by making use of a generalized integral transform technique approach, yielding an alternative method to study fluid force acting upon a flexible cylinder.