A mixed Bayesian network for two-dimensional decision modeling of departure time and mode choice

The modeling of travel decision making has been a popular topic in transportation planning. Previous studies focused on random-utility discrete choice models and machine learning methods. This paper proposes a new modeling approach that utilizes a mixed Bayesian network (BN) for travel decision inference. The authors use a predetermined BN structure and calculate priori and posterior probability distributions of the decision alternatives based on the observed explanatory variables. As a “utility-free” decision inference method, the BN model releases the linear structure in the utility function but assumes the traffic level of service variables follow multivariate Gaussian distribution conditional on the choice variable. A real-world case study is conducted by using the regional travel survey data for a two-dimensional decision modeling of both departure time choice and travel mode choice. The results indicate that a two-dimensional mixed BN provides better accuracy than decision tree models and nested logit models. In addition, one can derive continuous elasticity with respect to each continuous explanatory variable for sensitivity analysis. This new approach addresses a research gap in probabilistic travel decision making modeling as well as two-dimensional travel decision modeling.     

隧道照明节能控制系统研究

综合考虑交通量、环境亮度、行车速度、地理环境等因素,基于隧道照明设计与控制的"全局优化"理念,采用"多模式、多等级、智能化、个性化"的控制策略,开发了能够根据公路隧道内外亮度、照度、车流量、车流特点等环境变换因素,自动进行反馈调整隧道内部照明的智能照明控制系统。估算比对同一隧道在使用节能智能控制系统前后年总能耗可知,与原有控制方案相比,节能智能控制系统综合节电30%。     

BFL-RS01改性剂在OGFC混合料中的路用性能研究

本文探讨了国产70#沥青、进口70#沥青、BFL-RS01改性剂、SBS改性沥青改性OGFC混合料性能。研究国产沥青和进口沥青分别与BFL-RS01改性剂复配改性OGFC混合料性能,并与SBS改性OGFC混合料性能对比。结果表明,采用BFL-RS01改性OGFC混合料可以提高OGFC混合料的综合路用性能,耐高温性、抗水损害性要比SBS改性OGFC混合料更加优秀。     

台风"莎莉嘉"过境期间某泻湖内波浪特征分析

通过在某岛礁泻湖内布置ADCP波流测量仪器,采集到2016年21号台风"莎莉嘉"期间的波浪数据.结合布置在泻湖口处风速仪的风实测数据,本文对该时间段内的波浪特征进行分析.由波浪统计数据分析发现有义波高随时间的变化趋势与风速的变化趋势高度重合;谱峰周期的变化则要晚于风速的变化;谱峰方向在台风起主导作用期间与风向高度一致.通过分析多个无因次参数以及对风浪和涌浪进行分离发现测点与台风中心距离开始变大的这个时间点有着重要的意义.在该时间点,波长开始变长,波浪由无限水深波浪转变为有限水深波浪.一些波浪特征值,比如谱峰周期、a/L,也发生比较大的变化.此后在七级风半径不再覆盖测点时,该处波浪由风浪转变为涌浪.对波浪谱进行分析发现,在台风主导期间,其谱为单峰谱,其余时间则为双峰谱.     

多模块连接半潜式平台稳性对比分析

为开发我国海洋丰富的渔业、油气和旅游资源,可以在指定海域布设超大型浮式结构物,作为综合保障基地,提供船舶停靠、人员居住、渔业加工、油气开发、环境监测、飞机起降等多种功能.考虑到建造、运输等因素,超大型浮式结构物一般由多个相同或相似模块连接组成.本文基于一型半潜式平台模块,分别开展单、双、三模块的稳性分析,并对其稳性分析结果进行对比分析,探讨模块数量对平台稳性的影响,为超大型浮式结构物的后续设计与运营提供参考.     

Response-based analysis for Tension Leg Platform

The typical industry practice for Tension Leg Platform (TLP) design focuses on a conventional short-term design recipe, which assumes that an N-year design environment leads to an N-year response. In the response-based design method, the TLP is designed to withstand N-year responses rather than respond to N-year environmental conditions. In this paper, we present an overview and a general procedure for the response-based design method and use a case study to compare the critical TLP responses between the two methods. The results of our comparison show that the conventional short-term design method often contains an element of conservatism and that the response-based design method can reduce the design conditions and thereby achieve cost savings.     

Bicycle mode share in China: a city-level analysis of long term trends

In the past 15 years, cities in China have experienced big changes in socioeconomic and traffic conditions, resulting in a long term change in bicycle use. This study aims to quantify the changes in bicycle mode share in Chinese cities and explore the potential causes. Based on data from 51 cities, it is found that bicycle mode share at the city level decreased gradually in the past. Conventional bicycle mode share decreased with a rate of 3 % per year, but electric bicycle mode share increased with a rate of 2 % per year. The correlations between city features such as demographics and built environments and bicycle mode share at different city sizes are compared. The generalized linear models are estimated to relate the changes in the share of different trip modes to various city-level factors. The results show that the bicycle mode share in a city is impacted by factors including city area size, population density, number of cars, percentage of local road mileage among all roads, and trip purpose. Possible reasons for the changes in bicycle uses in Chinese cities are explored and policy implications are discussed.     

浮式储油轮(FPS0)上部组块放火分隔方式浅析

文章针对西江FPS0上部模块的消防工艺要求,对不同的消防方案在经济性、适用性、用水量等方面进行了对比和研究,结果表明消防炮方案是比较可行的,满足FPS0的消防要求,并且取得了很好的节能效果.     

重庆朝天门长江大桥施工扣索索力监控分析

重庆朝天门长江大桥主跨桁拱施工采用拱上爬行吊机悬臂吊装法,期间辅助以大型斜拉扣挂系统。通过建立空间有限元模型．对其施工过程进行理论分析。从理论分析、实测数据、实际施工操作三方面综合分析了朝天门长江大桥扣索初张力的控制．并对施工中各个工况下的索力实测数据进行了分析。     

非涉案保险人是否享有诉权

原告1:迅捷国际船务有限公司(简称迅捷公司) 原告2:强宇航运有限公司(简称强宇公司) 被告:昆士兰联保保险有限公司(简称昆士兰公司) 案情回放 迅捷公司,强宇公司于2006年6月22日向宁波海事法院起诉称:2005年,通过保险经济人宏丰船舶管理公司(以下简称宏丰公司),昆士兰公司作为保险人承保了以强宇公司为被保险人、以"兴海峰"轮为保险标的保赔险.