A cause of oversupply and failure in the shipping market: measuring herding behavior effects

ABSTRACT

The shipping market is volatile. In general, the shipping market cycle shows four stages, through—recovery—peak—collapse, while a upward trend lasts for 7~8 years and a downward trend for another 7~8 years. So the market’s bubble is not sustainable but always ends in a recessionary trend. The economic cycle is common knowledge and an axiom of the shipping industry, but many ship-owners take no account of it. Previous study stated that ship-owners’ fears, triggered by a violently changeable market, make them mimic the crowd mind or herd mentality, following market sentiment. This study aims to measure the effects of herding behavior (HB), triggered by market sentiment, on the shipping market. We attempt to address two research questions: (1) How does HB arise, and what course does it follow? (2) How many vessels (or how many tons) were purchased under the influence of HB? We estimate that 50.5% (227.8 vessels) of the total vessels or 30.4% (3,670.2 tons) of the total tonnage were purchased under the influence of HB. Looking at international finance, we found that ship investment HB is a very strong factor of the recent shipping market, at least in Korea.     

EFD and CFD for KCS heaving and pitching in regular head waves

The KCS container ship was investigated in calm water and regular head seas by means of EFD and CFD. The experimental study was conducted in FORCE Technology’s towing tank in Denmark, and the CFD study was conducted using the URANS codes CFDSHIP-IOWA and Star-CCM+ plus the potential theory code AEGIR. Three speeds were covered and the wave conditions were chosen in order to study the ship’s response in waves under resonance and maximum exciting conditions. In the experiment, the heave and pitch motions and the resistance were measured together with wave elevation of the incoming wave. The model test was designed and conducted in order to enable UA assessment of the measured data. The results show that the ship responds strongly when the resonance and maximum exciting conditions are met. With respect to experimental uncertainty, the level for calm water is comparable to PMM uncertainties for maneuvering testing while the level is higher in waves. Concerning the CFD results, the computation shows a very complex and time-varying flow pattern. For the integral quantities, a comparison between EFD and CFD shows that the computed motions and resistance in calm water is in fair agreement with the measurement. In waves, the motions are still in fair agreement with measured data, but larger differences are observed for the resistance. The mean resistance is reasonable, but the first order amplitude of the resistance time history is underpredicted by CFD. Finally, it seems that the URANS codes are in closer agreement with the measurements compared to the potential theory.     

Full scale ice sea trials of Korean ice breaking research vessel ‘Araon’ on the big floes near Antarctica

A speed sea trial was performed in the Amundsen Sea in February and March of 2012. The Korean ice breaking research vessel “Araon” was used to check speed performance on the big floes. Two of ice trial cases were carried out. We describe the time history of location, the engine power, and the revolutions per minute during the ice trial, and the trajectory of the ship. Additionally, the measured ice properties are considered and discussed. The ice trial results were analyzed according to variation in ice thicknesses, ice strength, propulsion power, and the speed level of the ship. Our analysis results are compared to model test results and ice trial results. A correction to the target ice thickness was used to compare the power and speed relation in the same ice thickness because it is easy to know the relative speed performance of the ship. The Hamburgische Schiffbau-Versuchs Anstalt method was applied for the correction. The speed of Araon in big floes was higher than the speed in level ice. The speed after the correction at 10 MW of power and 103 cm of ice thickness was 5.4 knots based on analysis results.     

Charting a New Paradigm of Container Hub Port Development Policy: The Asian Doctrine

This paper proposes the conceptual model of the Asian (Port) Doctrine to explain the successful development of top ranking container ports in Asia during the past four decades. This paper draws a new paradigm for the role of government as a third governance approach in addition to Anglo-Saxon and European doctrines by describing how Asian countries have developed container hub ports by investing in infrastructure as social overhead capital to support export-led growth. We survey characteristics and outcomes in major Asian container port developments and one European port in terms of a port development policy. The findings are presented in a comparative overview of government investment in functional elements of port, maritime infrastructure and landside connections to container ports. This paper confirms that the existing two doctrines—Anglo-Saxon and European doctrines—are not sufficient to explain the Asian success in major container port developments. The proposed framework contends that a newly proposed Asian Doctrine can accomplish this with the help of cross-subsidization, strategic and administered port pricing mechanism.     

A three-stage least squares approach to the analysis of airline strategies for aircraft size and airline frequency on the north Atlantic: an airline case study

In response to increasing demand, airlines may increase capacity by increasing the frequency of flights or they may choose to increase aircraft size. This may yield operating cost economies. If the airports they operate from are capacity constrained, they will be limited in the extent that they can change frequency which will limit their ability to compete with the number of frequencies offered. This article focuses on this trade-off and pays particular attention to the practices of a specific airline. Conclusions are offered on the impact of inter alia competition, changes in aircraft technology, 9/11 and the impact of slot constraints. It appears that changes in size are more important than frequency, which is consistent with the presence of slot constraints and there is a significant impact of competition. As the concentration of carriers increases, so aircraft size falls. 9/11 also has a significant impact on traffic whereas the introduction of the Boeing 777, as an illustration of a change in technology, does not.     

Incorporating e-Technology to Advantage in a Greener Taxi Industry and its Impact on Driving Performance and Safety

Abstract

New technologies, especially advances in telecommunications, have had profound impacts on everyday life and brought even greater changes to some business models. Taxis represent one of the major modes of transportation in urban areas but they face a number of problems, including their environmental impacts. The status of the taxi industry in Taiwan is revealed and analyzed in this study. A new business model for the extensive and popular use of smart phones is proposed. However, it is important to know whether their use is both effective and safe. Two field experiments were executed to examine the effects on taxi drivers of using a navigation system installed in a GPS PDA phone. The results revealed that the efficiency of drivers using such a portable navigation system was better than those relying on paper maps in unfamiliar urban areas. Furthermore, performance in terms of safety was also better than those who used an on-board navigation system. In summary, incorporating e-technology can promote a taxi company's competitiveness and a driver's performance and safety as well as offer environmental benefits.     

Approach to functional safety-compliant ECU design for electro-mechanical brake systems

In this paper, we propose a design approach to a functional safety-compliant ECU for an electro-mechanical brake (EMB) control system or an electronic wedge brake (EWB) control system. Brake actuators in a brake-by-wire (BBW) system such as EMB or EWB are characterized by the safety-critical functions which are now executed by using many electric and electronic devices with application software. Based on hazard analysis and risk assessments of the automotive functional safety standard ISO 26262, the proposed EMB control system should be ASIL-D-compliant, which is the highest ASIL level. To this end, a hardware and a software design method is introduced to implement functionl safety-oriented monitoring functions which are based on an asymmetric dual-core architecture with an external watchdog processor. It is shown by using EMB hardware-In-the-Loop-Simulation (HILS) that the proposed ECU design approach is very effective when a hardware fault or software execution faults occur in the EMB ECU, moreover, this functional safety-compliant design can be well combiled with the sensor fault-tolerant control logic.     

Impact of hilly road information on fuel economy of FCHEV based on parameterization of hilly roads

Under real-life driving conditions, hilly roads are prevalent. Hilly road profile substantially influences fuel economy (FE) due to large impacts (increase or decrease) on power demand profile. Thus, the utilization of future altitude profile information has large potential to improve FE. In this paper, for optimal energy management of fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles (FCHEV), we investigate how much FE could potentially be improved when future altitude profile information is available. In particular, the simulation results are analyzed to justify the reason for this potential improvement and to identify which characteristics of hilly roads leads to large FE improvements. First of all, four statistical parameters are defined to characterize hilly roads: mean value, standard deviation (STD), distance interval (DI), and total distance. Then, several types of virtual hilly roads are generated based on various parameter combinations. In order to evaluate the potential FE improvement two energy management strategies (EMSs) are utilized: the first is Dynamic Programming, which evaluates the globally optimal FE when future hilly road information is available; the other is the Equivalent Consumption Minimization Strategy (ECMS) with adaptive equivalent factor for charge-sustenance, which represents the baseline EMS when future hilly road information is not available. The results show that downhill roads have much larger potential than uphill roads do for FE improvements when the future altitude profile is properly used for EMS. Furthermore, if the battery capacity is not large enough to handle the difference in potential energy, future hilly road information is more important to prevent violations of the maximum state-of-charge bound.     

Node-based scheduling method for easy migration from CAN to FlexRay in in-vehicle networking systems

As vehicles become more intelligent, in-vehicle networking (IVN) systems such as controller area network (CAN) are essential for the convenience and safety of drivers. To expand the applicability of IVN systems, attention is currently being focused on chassis networking systems that require increased network capacity and real-time capabilities. FlexRay was developed to replace CAN protocol in chassis networking systems, to remedy the shortage of transmission capacity and unsatisfactory real-time transmission delay of conventional CAN. However, FlexRay network systems require a complex scheduling method, which is a barrier to their implementation as chassis networking systems. In particular, if we want to migrate from a CAN network to a FlexRay network using the well-defined CAN message database, which has been specifically constructed for chassis networking systems by automotive vendors, a new type of scheduling method is necessary to reduce scheduling efforts during the software development process. This paper presents a node-based scheduling method for easy migration from a CAN network to a FlexRay network system. To demonstrate the feasibility of the technique, its performance is evaluated in terms of various software complexity indices.