Robust network pricing and system optimization under combined long-term stochasticity and elasticity of travel demand

Network pricing serves as an instrument for congestion management, however, agencies and planners often encounter problems of estimating appropriate toll prices. Tolls are commonly estimated for a single-point deterministic travel demand, which may lead to imperfect policy decisions due to inherent uncertainties in future travel demand. Previous research has addressed the issue of demand uncertainty in the pricing context, but the elastic nature of demand along with its uncertainty has not been explicitly considered. Similarly, interactions between elasticity and uncertainty of demand have not been characterized. This study addresses these gaps and proposes a framework to estimate nearest optimal first-best tolls under long-term stochasticity in elastic demand. We show first that the optimal tolls under the deterministic-elastic and stochastic-elastic demand cases coincide when cost and demand functions are linear, and the set of equilibrium paths is constant. These assumptions are restrictive, so three larger networks are considered numerically, and the subsequent pricing decisions are assessed. The results of the numerical experiments suggest that in many cases, optimal pricing decisions under the combined stochastic-elastic demand scenario resemble those when demand is known exactly. The applications in this study thus suggest that inclusion of demand elasticity offsets the need of considering future demand uncertainties for first-best congestion pricing frameworks.     

冰荷载作用下护岸结构数值模拟

季节性冰冻河流春季开江产生的流冰会严重威胁堤防建筑物的安全,开展流冰对结构物的碰撞规律研究十分必要。为此,以松花江汤原县胜利堤护岸结构为例,利用ANSYS/LS-DYNA软件,基于结构地质地形,考虑松花江春季江面开化流冰情况,建立计入冰荷载作用下的护岸结构数值分析模型,开展护岸结构在冰排撞击作用下的有限元分析研究,理清结构承载变化规律,为季节性冰冻地区护岸结构的设计及后期维护提供理论参考和技术支持。     

Evaluating air emission inventories and indicators from cruise vessels at ports

This paper provides an estimation of air emissions (CO₂, NO_X, SO_X and PM) released by cruise vessels at the port level. The methodology is based on the “full bottom-up” approach and starts by evaluating the fuel consumed by each vessel on the basis of its individual port activities (manoeuvring, berthing and hoteling). The Port of Barcelona was selected as the site at which to perform the analysis, in which 125 calls of 30 cruise vessels were monitored. Real-time data from the automatic identification system (AIS), factor emissions from engine certificates and vessel characteristics from IHS Sea-web database were also collected for the analysis. The research findings show that the most appropriate indicators are inventory emissions per “port-time gross tonnage”, “port-time passenger” and “port time”. These emission indicators improve our understanding of cruise emissions and will facilitate the work that aims to estimate reliably and quickly the in-port ship emission inventories of cruise ports.     

The Bid-rent Land Use Model of the simple,efficient, elegant,and effective model of land use and transportation

Integrated land use/transportation forecasting models add significant policy and infrastructure alternatives analysis capabilities to the urban planning process. The financial, time, and staff requirements to develop these models has put them beyond the reach of most small to medium sized urban areas. This paper presents the land use allocation submodel of the Simple, Efficient, Elegant, and Effective model of land use and transportation (SE³M), an integrated land use and transportation forecasting model founded upon Economic Base Theory and Bid-rent Theory. The Bid-rent Land Use Model (BLUM) is an agent based, spatial competition model utilizing unique utility curves for willingness to pay and incomes for budget constrained abilities to pay for each agent. The model structure, estimation, calibration, implementation, and validation are presented. With a single year of land use data available, the validation approach used the Kappa Index of Agreement to spatially check model outputs against base year control data while controlling for agreement by chance. The U.S. territory of Guam is used as the case study/proof of concept implementation for this model framework. Once calibrated, BLUM could solve the spatial competition problem on Guam in less than two minutes of processing time with over 90% accuracy.     

Genetics of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning

This paper presents a review and classification of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning purposes by using concepts analogous to genetics in biology. Traffic assignment models share the same theoretical framework (DNA), but differ in capability (genes). We argue that all traffic assignment models can be described by three genes. The first gene determines the spatial capability (unrestricted, capacity restrained, capacity constrained, and capacity and storage constrained) described by four spatial assumptions (shape of the fundamental diagram, capacity constraints, storage constraints, and turn flow restrictions). The second gene determines the temporal capability (static, semi-dynamic, and dynamic) described by three temporal assumptions (wave speeds, vehicle propagation speeds, and residual traffic transfer). The third gene determines the behavioural capability (all-or-nothing, one shot, and equilibrium) described by two behavioural assumptions (decision-making and travel time consideration). This classification provides a deeper understanding of the often implicit assumptions made in traffic assignment models described in the literature. It further allows for comparing different models in terms of functionality, and paves the way for developing novel traffic assignment models.     

The relevance of international transport costs on food prices: Endogenous and exogenous effects

The paper addresses the problem of transport costs and their influence on food prices for South American imports. While transport does not seem to be in the focus of existing analyses, its impact on food prices might be underestimated and even closely linked to the development of commonly mentioned drivers of food prices. Since transport price formation is a function of demand and supply, drivers of food prices are also expected to impact on transport prices. The authors argue that a number of relevant factors that drive transport costs - and in consequence food prices - can be influenced by policy makers. Based on empirical analysis, the authors explain the functioning of the determinants of transport costs in the segment of international shipping, trying to describe their exogenous and endogenous components. These results are discussed in reference to policy development in the region.     

The structure of dissipation in the western Irish Sea front

We report on an intensive campaign in the summer of 2006 to observe turbulent energy dissipation in the vicinity of a tidal mixing front which separates well mixed and seasonally stratified regimes in the western Irish Sea. The rate of turbulent dissipation ε was observed on a section across the front by a combination of vertical profiles with the FLY dissipation profiler and horizontal profiles by shear sensors mounted on an AUV (Autosub). Mean flow conditions and stratification were obtained from a bed mounted ADCP and a vertical chain of thermistors on a mooring. During an Autosub mission of 60 h, the vehicle, moving at a speed of ~ 1.2 m s^− 1, completed 10 useable frontal crossings between end points which were allowed to move with the mean flow. The results were combined with parallel measurements of the vertical profile of ε which were made using FLY for periods of up to 13 h at positions along the Autosub track. The two data sets, which show a satisfactory degree of consistency, were combined to elucidate the space–time variation of dissipation in the frontal zone. Using harmonic analysis, the spatial structure of dissipation was separated from the strong time dependent signal at the M₄ tidal frequency to yield a picture of the cross-frontal distribution of energy dissipation. A complementary picture of the frontal velocity field was obtained from a moored ADCP and estimates of the mean velocity derived from the thermal wind using the observed density distribution. which indicated the presence of a strong (0.2 m s^− 1) jet-like flow in the high gradient region of the front. Under neap tidal conditions, mean dissipation varied across the section by 3 orders of magnitude exceeding 10^− 2 W m^− 3 near the seabed in the mixed regime and decreasing to 10^− 5 W m^− 3. in the strongly stratified interior regime. The spatial pattern of dissipation is consistent in general form with the predictions of models of tidal mixing and does not reflect any strong influence by the frontal jet.     

Non-local simulation of the stable boundary layer with a third order moments closure model

A new higher order closure model for the stable boundary layer is presented and compared with Large Eddy Simulation data. The model includes numerical solutions for the mean values, second and third order moments equations. A satisfactory agreement is found between the calculated vertical profiles of the turbulent quantities with those provided by the LES. Furthermore the new model results are compared with profiles obtained with a lower order closure model in order to verify the effective importance of including third order dynamical equations in the model.     

The importance of oceanographic fronts to marine birds and mammals of the southern oceans

During the last 30 years, at-sea studies of seabirds and marine mammals in the oceans south of the Subtropical Front have described an association with major frontal areas. More recently, the advancement in microtechnology has allowed the tracking of individuals and investigations into how these marine predators actually use the frontal zones. In this review, we examine 1) the relative importance to apex predators of the different frontal zones in terms of spatial distribution and carbon flux; 2) the processes that determine their preferential use; and 3) how the mesoscale dynamics of frontal structures drive at-sea foraging strategies of these predators. We review published results from southern waters and place them in a broader context with respect to what has been learned about the importance of fronts in oceans farther north.Some fronts constitute important boundaries for seabird communities in southern waters. At a mesoscale the maximum values of seabird diversity and abundance correspond to the location of the main fronts. At-sea surveys show a strong curvilinear correlation between seabird abundance and sea surface temperatures. High mean species richness and diversity for whales and seabirds are consistently associated with the southern water mass boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the Subtropical Front and the Subantarctic Front; in the case of the Polar Front mean seabird densities are more variable. At small-scales, variation in seabird occurrence has been directly related to the processes at fronts in a limited number of cases. A significant positive relation was found between some plankton feeding species and frontal temperature gradient–phytoplankton variables.Telemetric studies have revealed that several apex predators (penguins, albatrosses, seals) perform long, directed foraging trips either to the Subtropical front or Polar Front, depending on locality. Seabirds with low flight costs, such as albatrosses, are able to reach fronts at long distances from colonies, showing variable foraging strategies as a function of the distances involved. Diving birds such as King penguins, that travel at a higher cost and lower speed, rely on the predictable spatial distribution of mesopelagic fish found close to the Polar Front. They may use the currents associated with eddies as oceanographic cues in the active search for frontal zones. Once in these areas they dive preferentially in and below the depth of the thermocline where catches per unit effort are high. Elephant seals concentrate foraging activity principally inside or at the boundary of cyclonic eddies. These mesoscale features appear to offer exceptional productivity favourable for foraging by various diving top predators.The connection between biophysical parameters at fronts and predators is likely to be made through biological enhancement. Top predators appear to forage at locations where prey are advected by physical processes and others where prey are produced locally. Long-term research on at-sea distributions and demographic parameters of top predators are essential to assess the consequences of potential shift in front distributions in relation to global warming. Such environmental changes would add to the impact of fish extraction by the industrial fisheries on the southern food webs.     

Egg production and associated losses of carbon, nitrogen and fatty acids from maternal biomass in Calanus finmarchicus before the spring bloom

We present concurrent data on ingestion, egg production and the loss of maternal biomass in pre-spring bloom female Calanus finmarchicus incubated under conditions representative of those in situ in the North Atlantic. A balanced metabolic budget was constructed and used to examine the relative importance of ingestion and biomass for fuelling egg production during the incubations. Ingested carbon was not sufficient to meet the observed demands for egg production. More than 80% of the carbon utilised by the females was instead derived from their biomass. Fatty acid analysis demonstrated that the storage reserves, 20:1 (n−9) and 22:1 (n−11), were virtually absent before experimentation began, and therefore could not have been used to supply the carbon required for egg production during the incubations. The C:N mass-specific ratio of the biomass utilised was 4.1, suggesting that the females had instead catabolised protein in order to meet their metabolic demands. These results suggest that C. finmarchicus adopts a sacrificial reproductive strategy when food availability is low.