Non-intrusive polynomial chaos for efficient uncertainty analysis in parametric roll simulations

Monte Carlo analyses are generally considered the standard for uncertainty analysis. While accurate, these analyses can be expensive computationally. Recently, polynomial chaos has been proposed as an alternative approach to the estimation of uncertainty distributions (Hosder et al. A non-intrusive polynomial chaos method for uncertainty propagation in CFD simulations. In: 44th AIAA aerospace sciences meeting and exhibit, Reno, Nevada, 2006; Wu et al. Uncertainty analysis for parametric roll using non-intrusive polynomial chaos. In: Proceedings of the 12th international ship stability workshop, Washington, DC, USA, 2011). This approach works by representing the function as a series of orthogonal polynomials; the weights for which can be calculated via several methods. Previous studies have demonstrated the usefulness of this technique for comparatively simple systems such as parametric roll modeled by the Mathieu equation with normally distributed parameter values (Wu et al. Uncertainty analysis for parametric roll using non-intrusive polynomial chaos. In: Proceedings of the 12th international ship stability workshop, Washington, DC, USA, 2011). In the present work, a polynomial chaos method is applied to a nonlinear computational ship dynamics model with normally distributed input parameters. Test cases were selected where parametric roll was expected to potentially occur. The resulting probability distributions are compared to the results of a Monte Carlo analysis. In general, these results demonstrate good agreement between Monte Carlo simulation and polynomial chaos in the absence of capsize with significant computation gains found with polynomial chaos. Overall, we conclude that polynomial chaos is an effective tool for reducing simulation time costs when studying parametric roll, and potentially other ship dynamics phenomena, particularly in the absence of capsize-like bifurcations.     

SiMoCo: the viability of a prototype platform for a coastal monitoring system: a case study

Coastal zones are among the most productive areas in the world, offering a wide variety of valuable habitats and ecosystems services. Despite the low population density in the Brazilian coastal zone, their distribution is quite concentrated near some coastal cities and state capitals. This concentration places enormous pressure on coastal resources. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to present an overview on the current status of SiMoCo (Sistema de Monitoramento Costeiro, or Coastal Monitoring System in English) project as a possible early warning system that can be integrated to the Brazilian Coastal Management Information System. This prototype platform provides a real-time access to the composition, organization and simulation of planktonic communities. First, our results demonstrate such a system detecting a target dinoflagellate; second, we apply structural and functional indexes to compare and characterize the ecological networks from two different coastal areas. Conclusions are made about SiMoCo’s feasibility and its possible contribution to the decision-making process within integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) strategies.     

The Gulf Stream, rings and North Atlantic eddy structures from remote sensing (Altimeter and SeaWiFS)

Seasonal SeaWiFS chlorophyll a concentrations cycles and annual changes of altimeter Sea Level Anomaly are derived for the subtropical North Atlantic near  35°N and along a Gulf Stream axis. Spatial structure of SeaWiFS, is defined in terms of deviations from a local seasonal cycle and examined in relation to altimeter eddy structure. In the subtropical region near 35°N, SeaWiFS structure is evident during the spring bloom period with a scale of  430 km, or about twice the eddy scale. A Gulf Stream axis has been selected as a region where the Sea Level Anomaly variance is a maximum. Eddy propagation speeds and scales are examined. Cold-core (cyclonic) rings correspond to areas of high SeaWiFS chlorophyll a. Warm-core (anticyclonic) rings relate to areas of low chlorophyll concentration. Both SeaWiFS structure and eddy structure have a spatial scale of  450 km or twice the ring scale along the Gulf Stream axis. SeaWiFS chlorophyll anomalies and Altimeter Sea Level Anomaly structure have an overall negative correlation coefficient of r = − 0.34. Swirl currents between eddies redistribute surface chlorophyll concentrations and can spatially bias maximum and minimum concentration levels off eddy centre.     

Suspended sediment and erosion dynamics in Kugmallit Bay and Beaufort Sea during ice-free conditions

The Mackenzie River is the largest river on the North American side of the Arctic and its huge freshwater and sediment load impacts the Canadian Beaufort Shelf. Huge quantities of sediment and associated organic carbon are transported in the Mackenzie plume into the interior of the Arctic Ocean mainly during the freshet (May to September). Changing climate scenarios portend increased coastal erosion and resuspension that lead to altered river-shelf-slope particle budgets. We measured sedimentation rates, suspended particulate matter (SPM), particle size and settling rates during ice-free conditions in Kugmallit Bay (3–5 m depth). Additionally, measurements of erosion rate, critical shear stress, particle size distribution and resuspension threshold of bottom sediments were examined at four regionally contrasting sites (33–523 m depth) on the Canadian Beaufort Shelf using a new method for assessing sediment erosion. Wind induced resuspension was evidenced by a strong relationship between SPM and wind speed in Kugmallit Bay. Deployment of sediment traps showed decreasing sedimentation rates at sites along an inshore–offshore transect ranging from 5400 to 3700 g m^− 2 day^− 1. Particle settling rates and size distributions measured using a Perspex settling chamber showed strong relationships between equivalent spherical diameter (ESD) and particle settling rates (r² = 0.91). Mean settling rates were 0.72 cm s^− 1 with corresponding ESD values of 0.9 mm. Undisturbed sediment cores were exposed to shear stress in an attempt to compare differences in sediment stability across the shelf during September to October 2003. Shear was generated by vertically oscillating a perforated disc at controlled frequencies corresponding to calibrated shear velocity using a piston grid erosion device. Critical (Type I) erosion thresholds (u) varied between 1.1 and 1.3 cm s^− 1 with no obvious differences in location. Sediments at the deepest site Amundsen Gulf displayed the highest erosion rates (22–54 g m^− 2 min^− 1) with resuspended particle sizes ranging from 100 to 930 µm for all sites. There was no indication of biotic influence on sediment stability, although our cores did not display a fluff layer of unconsolidated sediment. Concurrent studies in the delta and shelf region suggest the importance of a nepheloid layer which transports suspended particles to the slope. Continuous cycles of resuspension, deposition, and horizontal advection may intensify with reduction of sea ice in this region. Our measurements coupled with studies of circulation and cross-shelf exchange allow parameterization and modeling of particle dynamics and carbon fluxes under various climate change scenarios.     

Modelling daily activity program generation considering within-day and day-to-day dynamics in activity-travel behaviour

This paper presents a comprehensive econometric modelling framework for daily activity program generation. It is for day-specific activity program generations of a week-long time span. Activity types considered are 15 generic categories of non-skeletal and flexible activities. Under the daily time budget and non-negativity of participation rate constraints, the models predict optimal sets of frequencies of the activities under consideration (given the average duration of each activity type). The daily time budget considers at-home basic needs and night sleep activities together as a composite activity. The concept of composite activity ensures the dynamics and continuity of time allocation and activity/travel behaviour by encapsulating altogether the activity types that are not of our direct interest in travel demand modelling. Workers’ total working hours (skeletal activity and not a part of the non-skeletal activity time budget) are considered as a variable in the models to accommodate the scheduling effects inside the generation model of non-skeletal activities. Incorporation of previous day’s total executed activities as variables introduces day-to-day dynamics into the activity program generation models. The possibility of zero frequency of any specific activity under consideration is ensured by the Kuhn-Tucker optimality conditions used for formulating the model structure. Models use the concept of random utility maximization approach to derive activity program set. Estimations of the empirical models are done using the 2002–2003 CHASE survey data set collected in Toronto.

A probabilistic framework for weather-based rerouting and delay estimations within an Airspace Planning model

In this paper, we develop a novel severe weather-modeling paradigm to be applied within the context of a large-scale Airspace Planning and collaborative decision-making model in order to reroute flights with respect to a specified probability threshold of encountering severe weather, subject to collision safety, airline equity, and sector workload considerations. This approach serves as an alternative to the current practice adopted by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of adjusting flight routes in accordance with the guidelines specified in the National Playbook. Our innovative contributions in this paper include (a) the concept of “Probability-Nets” and the development of discretized representations of various weather phenomena that affect aviation operations; (b) the integration of readily accessible severe weather probabilities from existing weather forecast data provided by the National Weather Service; (c) the generation of flight plans that circumvent severe weather phenomena with specified probability threshold levels, and (d) a probabilistic delay assessment methodology for evaluating planned flight routes that might encounter potentially disruptive weather along its trajectory. Additionally, we conduct an economic benefit analysis using a k-means clustering mechanism in concert with our delay assessment methodology in order to evaluate delay costs and system disruptions associated with variations in probability-net refinement-based information. Computational results and insights are presented based on flight test cases derived from the Enhanced Traffic Management System data provided by the FAA and using weather scenarios derived from the Model Output Statistics forecast data provided by the National Weather Service.     

A reference-dependent user equilibrium model for activity-travel scheduling

Existing user equilibrium models of activity-travel scheduling generally fall short in representing travelers’ decision-making processes. The majority have either implicitly or explicitly assumed that travelers follow the principle of utility maximization. This assumption ignores the fact that individuals may be loss–averse when making activity-travel decisions. Allowing for the situation that travelers possess accurate information of the urban-transportation system due to modern technologies, studies on reference-dependent decision-making under near-perfect information are receiving increasing attention. In view of traveler heterogeneity, individuals can be divided into multiple classes according to their reference points. In this paper, we propose a reference-dependent multi-class user equilibrium model for activity-travel scheduling, which can be reformulated as a variational inequality problem. Moreover, comparative analyses are conducted on the equilibrium states between utility-maximization (no reference) and reference-dependency of exogenous and endogenous references. A numerical example regarding combined departure-time and mode choice for commuting is conducted to illustrate the proposed model. The simulated results indicate that reference points and loss aversion attitudes have significant effects on the choice of departure time and mode.     

New routes on old railways: increasing rail’s mode share within the constraints of the existing railway network

This paper describes an integrated methodology for identifying potential ‘quick wins’ for mode shift from road to passenger rail transport. Firstly, a procedure for analysing rail’s relative competitiveness in the market for passenger transport between large urban areas is developed and then applied to a UK case study. The purpose of such analysis is to allow the identification of flows where rail is currently relatively uncompetitive (in terms of journey time in particular) and to assess the reasons for this poor performance, so that the issues which suppress rail use may be addressed. In parallel, a framework, methodology and tool for the assessment of existing and potential capacity (trains, seats, TEUs, etc.) is developed for both passenger and freight traffic, to identify and address network constraints. An illustrative example of the use of these demand and capacity assessment tools is then presented, with the tools used to identify and evaluate flows where rail demand is suppressed by poor service quality and where spare capacity exists which would allow the passenger rail service to be improved without requiring significant investments in infrastructure. The effects of such improvements on demand are predicted, and the cost implications of operating such additional services are discussed. The analysis suggests that there may be significant potential for increasing rail’s mode share by providing additional inter-urban services where rail currently offers an inferior service.     

Vehicle stability control system for enhancing steerabilty,lateral stability,and roll stability

The Vehicle stability control system is an active safety system designed to prevent accidents from occurring and to stabilize dynamic maneuvers of a vehicle by generating an artificial yaw moment using differential brakes. In this paper, in order to enhance vehicle steerability, lateral stability, and roll stability, each reference yaw rate is designed and combined into a target yaw rate depending on the driving situation. A yaw rate controller is designed to track the target yaw rate based on sliding mode control theory. To generate the total yaw moment required from the proposed yaw rate controller, each brake pressure is properly distributed with effective control wheel decision. Estimators are developed to identify the roll angle and body sideslip angle of a vehicle based on the simplified roll dynamics model and parameter adaptation approach. The performance of the proposed vehicle stability control system and estimation algorithms is verified with simulation results and experimental results.     

Dynamic analysis of seatbelt systems with anti-inertial release mechanisms

In order to prevent the uncontrolled release of seatbelt buckles due to high acceleration caused by pretensioners, anti-g buckles that have pendulum-shaped g-masses to block the releasing motion are commonly adopted in seatbelt systems. However, even with the wide applications of anti-g buckles, the underlying operational principles of anti-g buckles have yet to be investigated. This work studies conditions for the engagement of the g-mass to prevent inertial release, and conditions for maintaining a blocked state under very high acceleration. Using a multibody model of an anti-g buckle, the effects of various design parameters on the performance of the anti-g buckle have been examined. It turns out that design variables associated with the geometry of the g-mass and its contacting surface configuration play important roles. In order to account for the dynamic interaction between driver and seatbelt, a multibody model of a seatbelt system is combined with a dummy model to form a single dynamic system. Using the measured displacement of the buckle during the explosion of a pretensioner as the driving condition for simulation, dynamic analysis of the seatbelt with driver interaction has been carried out. Through comparison with measured and computed accelerations of webbing, which shows good agreement, the validity of the model has been demonstrated. The dynamic model for seatbelt and driver can be used as a design tool for the development of anti-g buckles.