Conditional modelling of tanker market risk using route specific freight rates

This paper provides statistical evidence in support of the view, widely held in the tanker industry, that there are systematic differences in the degree of risk involved in investing in tankers of different sizes, and in operating tankers in spot and time charter markets. The industry view, broadly supported by the results of this paper, is that larger vessels are 'risker' assets than smaller vessels, and operating vessels in the time-charter market is less risky than employing them on a spot basis. The results are obtained by using a method derived from the financial economics literature, which models both the conditional mean and variance of a variable, known as GARCH modelling. Only one other paper has applied this method to the tanker market, and these results provide confirmatory support of those findings.     

Computer Vision and Highway Automation

A survey is given on the development of machine vision for road vehicle guidance. Through early work in real-time simulation with real hardware in the loop at UBM, and through the EUREKA-project 'Prometheus' from 1987 to 1994 following the 100 th anniversary of road vehicle developments since 1886, Europe has pioneered the field. Since first fully autonomous testdrives in 1986, and first participation in public traffic in 1992, considerable progress has been achieved. With continuous growth in computing power of microprocessors at a rate of about one order of magnitude every four to five years, sufficient performance levels for dynamic machine vision will be available within one or two decades. The principles of dynamic vision as developed at UBM and performance levels achieved are discussed.     

Identification of potential sites for deep-ocean waste isolation with a geographic site-selection model

Identification of optimal sites for the isolation of waste on the abyssal seafloor was performed with two approaches: by the traditional method of map overlays of relevant attributes, and by a specially developed, automated Site-Selection Model (SSM). Five initial, Surrogate Sites, identified with the map-overlay approach, were then compared with the more rigorously produced scores from the SSM. The SSM, a process for optimization of site locations, accepts subjective, expert-based judgments and transforms them into a quantitative, reproducible, and documented product. The SSM is adaptable to any siting scenario. Forty-one factors relevant to the isolation scenario, including 21 weightable factors having a total of 123 scorable categories, have been entered into the SSM. Factors are grouped under project definition, unique environments, anthropogenic, geologic, biologic, weather, oceanographic and distance criteria. The factor scores are linked to a georeferenced database array of all factors, corresponding to 1°×1° latitude–longitude squares. The SSM includes a total of 2241 one-degree squares within 1000 n.m. of the U.S. coasts, including the western North Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the eastern North Pacific. Under a carefully weighted and scored scenario of isolation, the most favorable sites identified with the SSM are on the Hatteras and Nares Abyssal Plains in the Atlantic. High-scoring sites are also located in the Pacific abyssal hills province between the Murray and Molokai Fracture Zones. Acceptable 1° squares in the Gulf of Mexico are few and of lower quality, with the optimum location on the northern Sigsbee Abyssal Plain. Two of the five Surrogate Site locations, on the Hatteras and Sigsbee Abyssal Plains, correspond to the best SSM sites in each ocean area. Two Pacific and a second Atlantic Surrogate Site are located in low-scoring regions or excluded by the SSM. Site-selection results from the SSM, although robust, are an initial attempt to quantify the site-selection process. The SSM database exposes a significant lack of high-quality information for many areally mappable attributes on the abyssal seafloor, particularly bottom-current speed and measures of biologic productivity and flux. Terminologies and classifications of some measures, such as sediment types, suffer from parochialism and vary by ocean. Considerable research is needed even for a broad understanding of the environmental measures required to make sound societal decisions about use of the abyssal seafloor for disposal or other purposes.     

Spatial fisheries ecology: Recent progress and future prospects

We review recent progresses made in the study of fish distribution and survival over space — i.e., fisheries spatial ecology. This is achieved by first surveying the most common statistical approaches and relative challenges associated with the analysis of fisheries spatial data, loosely grouped in geostatistical and regression approaches. Then we review a selected number of case-studies implementing the discussed techniques. We conclude by proposing new areas of statistical and ecological research to further our understanding of how fish distribute and survive in space. This review serves a dual purpose by emphasizing the scientific importance of studying spatial interactions to better understand the temporal dynamics of fish abundance, and by promoting the development of new analytical and ecological approaches for the analysis of spatial data. Through our survey we cover different statistical techniques, marine ecosystems and life stages. This analytical, geographic and ontogenetic variety is also purposely selected to highlight the importance of comparative and multidisciplinary studies across diverging ecological disciplines, ecosystems and life stages. Besides having a general ecological relevance this review also bears a more applied significance, owing to the increasing need for protecting renewable marine resources along with their primary habitat.     

Torque characteristics analysis for optimal design of a copper-layered eddy current brake system

An enhanced parametric model for a copper-layered eddy current electric machine (retarder) is introduced in this paper. The modeled torque characteristics of the copper-layered electromagnetic retarders are based on the results from a detailed electromagnetic finite element analysis (FEA) of these eddy current machines. The model uses a parameterized double-exponential function to model the steady state speed-torque characteristics of the retarder. The parameters are adjusted for optimal braking performance in conjunction with predicted speed-torque characteristics of a copper-layered retarder. A full vehicle model, along with the proposed retarder speed-torque model has been used to simulate a series braking events. The simulation results show that the peaks of the retarder speed-torque curves must be designed to occur within a specific range of speeds for optimal braking performance.     

The commercialization of East European liner shipping: the experience of Poland

This paper will examine the impact of continuous and increasing change in the shipping sector of Eastern Europe with particular reference to the liner sector in Poland one of the more dynamic markets that has emerged since the political, economic and social changes of the late 1980s. Polish Ocean Lines, and in particular POL Levant, a relatively new, commercialized subsidiary operating in the private sector, are taken as case studies to assess the new structures that are emerging in the marketplace.     

Management of coastal eutrophication: Integration of field data, ecosystem-scale simulations and screening models

A hybrid approach for eutrophication assessment in estuarine and coastal ecosystems is presented. The ASSETS screening model (http://www.eutro.org) classifies eutrophication status into five classes: High (better), Good, Moderate, Poor and Bad (worse). This model was applied to a dataset from a shallow coastal barrier island system in southwest Europe (Ria Formosa), with a resulting score of Good. A detailed dynamic model was developed for this ecosystem, and the outputs were used to drive the screening model. Four scenarios were run on the research model: pristine, standard (simulates present loading), half and double the current nutrient loading. The Ria Formosa has a short water residence time and eutrophication symptoms are not apparent in the water column. However, benthic symptoms are expressed as excessive macroalgal growth and strong dissolved oxygen fluctuations in the tide pools. The standard simulation results showed an ASSETS grade identical to the field data application. The application of the screening model to the other scenario outputs showed the responsiveness of ASSETS to changes in pressure, state and response, scoring a grade of High under pristine conditions, Good for half the standard scenario and Moderate for double the present loadings. The use of this hybrid approach allows managers to test the outcome of measures against a set of well-defined metrics for the evaluation of state. It additionally provides a way of testing and improving the pressure component of ASSETS. Sensitivity analysis revealed that sub-sampling the output of the research model at a monthly scale, typical for the acquisition of field data, may significantly affect the outcome of the screening model, by overlooking extreme events such as occasional night-time anoxia in tide pools.     

Improving the predictiveness of the quasi-d combustion model for spark ignition engines with flexible intake systems

Fast and predictive simulation tools are prerequisites for pursuing simulation based engine control development. A particularly attractive tradeoff between speed and fidelity is achieved with a co-simulation approach that marries a commercial gas dynamic code WAVE™ with an in-house quasi-dimensional combustion model. Gas dynamics are critical for predicting the effect of wave action in intake and exhaust systems, while the quasi-D turbulent flame entrainment model provides sensitivity to variations of composition and turbulence in the cylinder. This paper proposes a calibration procedure for such a tool that maximizes its range of validity and therefore achieves a fully predictive combustion model for the analysis of a high degree of freedom (HDOF) engines. Inclusion of a charge motion control device in the intake runner presented a particular challenge, since anything altering the flow upstream of the intake valve remains “invisible” to the zero-D turbulence model applied to the cylinder control volume. The solution is based on the use of turbulence multiplier and scheduling of its value. Consequently, proposed calibration procedure considers two scalar variables (dissipation constant C _β and turbulence multiplier C _M ), and the refinements of flame front area maps to capture details of the spark-plug design, i.e. the actual distance between the spark and the surface of the cylinder head. The procedure is demonstrated using an SI engine system with dual-independent cam phasing and charge motion control valves (CMCV) in the intake runner. A limited number of iterations led to convergence, thanks to a small number of adjustable constants. After calibrating constants at the reference operating point, the predictions are validated for a range of engine speeds, loads and residual fractions.     

Hydrographic conditions affecting two fishing grounds of Mallorca island (Western Mediterranean): during the IDEA Project (2003–2004)

This paper describes the hydrographic conditions observed during six surveys carried out during 2003 and 2004, in the framework of the “IDEA Project” (acronym for “Influence of oceanographic structure and dynamics on demersal populations in waters of the Balearic Islands”). The surveys were developed on the shelf and slope of Mallorca Island, in particular in two fishing grounds at the north and south of the Mallorca channel. Periodic movements of the fishing fleet between these two areas have been regularly reported, suggesting a seasonal variability of the resources which could be in turn associated with the hydrodynamic variability. With this motivation, water masses affecting these grounds have been identified and their seasonal variability has been studied. Different oceanographic and environmental conditions have been found between the two fishing grounds. These differences are related to the presence of mesoscale structures, associated with the Western Mediterranean Intermediate Water (WIW) at the north of the Ibiza channel and big gyres detached from the Algerian Current. The former has been shown to have influence on the regional oceanic circulation and the latter could affect the progress of fresh Atlantic Water (AW) towards the channels and make possible the presence of high salinity values at intermediate waters at the south of Mallorca Island. Historical data from other oceanographic cruises carried out in the region are finally used to discuss the interannual variability of these mesoscale structures.