Robust network pricing and system optimization under combined long-term stochasticity and elasticity of travel demand

Network pricing serves as an instrument for congestion management, however, agencies and planners often encounter problems of estimating appropriate toll prices. Tolls are commonly estimated for a single-point deterministic travel demand, which may lead to imperfect policy decisions due to inherent uncertainties in future travel demand. Previous research has addressed the issue of demand uncertainty in the pricing context, but the elastic nature of demand along with its uncertainty has not been explicitly considered. Similarly, interactions between elasticity and uncertainty of demand have not been characterized. This study addresses these gaps and proposes a framework to estimate nearest optimal first-best tolls under long-term stochasticity in elastic demand. We show first that the optimal tolls under the deterministic-elastic and stochastic-elastic demand cases coincide when cost and demand functions are linear, and the set of equilibrium paths is constant. These assumptions are restrictive, so three larger networks are considered numerically, and the subsequent pricing decisions are assessed. The results of the numerical experiments suggest that in many cases, optimal pricing decisions under the combined stochastic-elastic demand scenario resemble those when demand is known exactly. The applications in this study thus suggest that inclusion of demand elasticity offsets the need of considering future demand uncertainties for first-best congestion pricing frameworks.     

Factors associated with home-based e-working and e-shopping in Nanjing,China

The widespread adoption of information and communication technology has facilitated frequent e-activities in people’s daily life. From the perspective of individual’s time use on e-working and e-shopping at home, this paper aims to enhance our understanding of the function of home beyond a living space for family life. Using a household survey of 608 full-time paid employees who conducted e-activities at home in Nanjing, China, we investigated the characteristics and patterns of home-based e-working and e-shopping. Only 7.9% of the respondents neither e-shopped nor e-worked at home. We find that the socio-demographic context, Internet use habits, attitudes towards e-working/e-shopping, and geographical accessibility have influenced the patterns of home-based e-working and e-shopping. The results indicate that the rich e-activities taking place at home have changed the time use at home and reinforced the function of home as a multifunctional hub.     

Relationship between well-being and daily time use of elderly: evidence from the disabilities and use of time survey

According to US Census Bureau, the number of individuals in the age group above 65 years is expected to increase by more than 100% from the year 2000 to 2030. It is anticipated that increasing elderly population will put unforeseen demands on the transportation infrastructure due to the atypical mobility and travel needs of the elderly. Consequently, transportation professionals have attempted to understand the travel behavior of the elderly including the trip frequency, trip distance and mode choice decisions. Majority of the research on elderly travel behavior have focused on the mobility outcomes with limited research into understanding the tradeoffs made by this population segment in terms of their in-home and out-of-home activity engagement choices. The goal of the current research is to contribute to this line of inquiry by simultaneously exploring the daily activity engagement choices of the elderly Americans including their in-home and out-of-home activity participation (what activities to pursue) and time alloocation (duration of each activity) decisions while accounting for the temporal constraints. Further, the study attempts to explore the relationship between physical and subjective well-being and daily activity engagement decisions of the elderly; where subjective well-being is derived from reported needs satisfaction with life and different domains of it. To this end, data from the Disabilities and Use of Time survey of Panel Study of Income Dynamics was used to estimate a panel version of MDCEV model. In addition to person- and household-level demographic variables, activity participation and time use choices of elderly were found to vary across different levels of reported physical and subjective well-being measures. The model estimation results were plausible and provide interesting insights into the activity engagement choices of the elderly with implications for transportation policy development. Among other socio-demographic variables, living arrangements (living with family versus in elderly homes) were found to have significant influence on how people participate into different in-home versus out-of-home activities. For example, elderly living in the elderly home were found to participate more into out-of-home activities compared to people living with families. Elderly with disabilities were found to compensate lower participation into out-of-home activities with more participation into in-home activities. Considerable heterogeneity was observed in time engagement behavior of the elderly across reported levels of satisfaction with finance, job and cognitive needs. For example, elderly expressing high satisfaction with job was found to spend less time in in-home social activities. Elderly reporting higher satisfaction with finance were found to spend more time into OH social and shopping activities.     

Evaluating air emission inventories and indicators from cruise vessels at ports

This paper provides an estimation of air emissions (CO₂, NO_X, SO_X and PM) released by cruise vessels at the port level. The methodology is based on the “full bottom-up” approach and starts by evaluating the fuel consumed by each vessel on the basis of its individual port activities (manoeuvring, berthing and hoteling). The Port of Barcelona was selected as the site at which to perform the analysis, in which 125 calls of 30 cruise vessels were monitored. Real-time data from the automatic identification system (AIS), factor emissions from engine certificates and vessel characteristics from IHS Sea-web database were also collected for the analysis. The research findings show that the most appropriate indicators are inventory emissions per “port-time gross tonnage”, “port-time passenger” and “port time”. These emission indicators improve our understanding of cruise emissions and will facilitate the work that aims to estimate reliably and quickly the in-port ship emission inventories of cruise ports.     

An activity-based approach of investigating travel behaviour of older people

The paper presents the results of an investigation on daily activity-travel scheduling behaviour of older people by using an advanced econometric model and a household travel survey, collected in the National Capital Region (NCR) of Canada in 2011. The activity-travel scheduling model considers a dynamic time–space constrained scheduling process. The key contribution of the paper is to reveal daily activity-travel scheduling behaviour through a comprehensive econometric framework. The resulting empirical model reveals many behavioural details. These include the role that income plays in moderating out-of-home time expenditure choices of older people. Older people in the highest and lowest income categories tend to have lower variations in time expenditure choices than those in middle-income categories. Overall, the time expenditure choices become more stable with increasing age, indicating that longer activity durations and lower activity frequency become more prevalent with increasing age. Daily activity type and location choices reveal a clear random utility-maximizing rational behaviour of older people. It is clear that increasing spatial accessibility to various activity locations is a crucial factor in defining daily out-of-home activity participation of older people. It is also clear that the diversity of out-of-home activity type choices reduces with increasing age and older people are more sensitive to auto travel time than to transit or non-motorized travel time.     

Isolating high-priority metro and feeder bus transfers using smart card data

Fixed-rail metro (or ‘subway’) infrastructure is generally unable to provide access to all parts of the city grid. Consequently, feeder bus lines are an integral component of urban mass transit systems. While passengers prefer a seamless transfer between these two distinct transportation services, each service’s operations are subject to a different set of factors that contribute to metro-bus transfer delay. Previous attempts to understand transfer delay were limited by the availability of tools to measure the time and cost associated with passengers’ transfer experience. This paper uses data from smart card systems, an emerging technology that automatically collects passenger trip data, to understand transfer delay. The primary objective of this study is to use smart card data to derive a reproducible methodology that isolates high priority transfer points between the metro system and its feeder-bus systems. The paper outlines a methodology to identify transfer transactions in the smart card dataset, estimate bus headways without the aid of geographic location information, estimate three components of the total transfer time (walking time, waiting time, and delay time), and isolate high-priority transfer pairs. The paper uses smart card data from Nanjing, China as a case study. The results isolate eight high priority metro-bus transfer pairs in the Nanjing metro system and finally, offers several targeted measures to improve transfer efficiency.     

Non-local simulation of the stable boundary layer with a third order moments closure model

A new higher order closure model for the stable boundary layer is presented and compared with Large Eddy Simulation data. The model includes numerical solutions for the mean values, second and third order moments equations. A satisfactory agreement is found between the calculated vertical profiles of the turbulent quantities with those provided by the LES. Furthermore the new model results are compared with profiles obtained with a lower order closure model in order to verify the effective importance of including third order dynamical equations in the model.     

The importance of oceanographic fronts to marine birds and mammals of the southern oceans

During the last 30 years, at-sea studies of seabirds and marine mammals in the oceans south of the Subtropical Front have described an association with major frontal areas. More recently, the advancement in microtechnology has allowed the tracking of individuals and investigations into how these marine predators actually use the frontal zones. In this review, we examine 1) the relative importance to apex predators of the different frontal zones in terms of spatial distribution and carbon flux; 2) the processes that determine their preferential use; and 3) how the mesoscale dynamics of frontal structures drive at-sea foraging strategies of these predators. We review published results from southern waters and place them in a broader context with respect to what has been learned about the importance of fronts in oceans farther north.Some fronts constitute important boundaries for seabird communities in southern waters. At a mesoscale the maximum values of seabird diversity and abundance correspond to the location of the main fronts. At-sea surveys show a strong curvilinear correlation between seabird abundance and sea surface temperatures. High mean species richness and diversity for whales and seabirds are consistently associated with the southern water mass boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the Subtropical Front and the Subantarctic Front; in the case of the Polar Front mean seabird densities are more variable. At small-scales, variation in seabird occurrence has been directly related to the processes at fronts in a limited number of cases. A significant positive relation was found between some plankton feeding species and frontal temperature gradient–phytoplankton variables.Telemetric studies have revealed that several apex predators (penguins, albatrosses, seals) perform long, directed foraging trips either to the Subtropical front or Polar Front, depending on locality. Seabirds with low flight costs, such as albatrosses, are able to reach fronts at long distances from colonies, showing variable foraging strategies as a function of the distances involved. Diving birds such as King penguins, that travel at a higher cost and lower speed, rely on the predictable spatial distribution of mesopelagic fish found close to the Polar Front. They may use the currents associated with eddies as oceanographic cues in the active search for frontal zones. Once in these areas they dive preferentially in and below the depth of the thermocline where catches per unit effort are high. Elephant seals concentrate foraging activity principally inside or at the boundary of cyclonic eddies. These mesoscale features appear to offer exceptional productivity favourable for foraging by various diving top predators.The connection between biophysical parameters at fronts and predators is likely to be made through biological enhancement. Top predators appear to forage at locations where prey are advected by physical processes and others where prey are produced locally. Long-term research on at-sea distributions and demographic parameters of top predators are essential to assess the consequences of potential shift in front distributions in relation to global warming. Such environmental changes would add to the impact of fish extraction by the industrial fisheries on the southern food webs.     

An algorithm for oceanic front detection in chlorophyll and SST satellite imagery

An algorithm is described for oceanic front detection in chlorophyll (Chl) and sea surface temperature (SST) satellite imagery. The algorithm is based on a gradient approach: the main novelty is a shape-preserving, scale-sensitive, contextual median filter applied selectively and iteratively until convergence. This filter has been developed specifically for Chl since these fields have spatial patterns such as chlorophyll enhancement at thermohaline fronts and small- and meso-scale chlorophyll blooms that are not present in SST fields. Linear Chl enhancements and localized (point-wise) blooms are modeled as ridges and peaks respectively, whereas conventional fronts in Chl and SST fields are modeled as steps or ramps. Examples are presented of the algorithm performance using modeled (synthetic) images as well as synoptic Chl and SST imagery. After testing, the algorithm was used on > 6000 synoptic images, 1999–2007, to produce climatologies of Chl and SST fronts off the U.S. Northeast.     

On the numerical accuracy of the prediction of resistance coefficients in ship stern flow calculations

This article presents a study on the accuracy of the numerical determination of the friction and pressure resistance coefficients of ship hulls. The investigation was carried out for the KVLCC2 tanker at model- and full-scale Reynolds numbers. Gravity waves were neglected, i.e., we adopted the so-called double-model flow. Single-block grids with H–O topology were adopted for all the calculations. Three eddy viscosity models were employed: the one-equation eddy viscosity and the two-equation models proposed by Menter and the TNT version of the two-equation k-ω model. Verification exercises were performed in sets of nearly geometrically similar grids with different densities in the streamwise, normal, and girthwise directions. The friction and pressure resistance coefficients were calculated for different levels of the iterative error and for computational domains of different size. The results show that on the level of grid refinement used, it is possible to calculate the viscous resistance coefficients in H–O grids that do not match the ship contour with a numerical uncertainty of less than 1%. The differences between the predictions of different turbulence models were larger than the numerical uncertainty; however, these differences tended to decrease with increases in the Reynolds number. The pressure resistance was remarkably sensitive to domain size and far-field boundary conditions. Either a large domain or the application of a viscous–inviscid interaction procedure is needed for reliable results. This work was presented in part at the International Conference on Computational Methods in Marine Engineering—MARINE 2007, Barcelona, June 3–4, 2007.