A medium term transport research strategy for the EEC

Abstract

Part 1 elicited major research issues and opportunities in the transport sector in the EEC from an examination of a range of planning scenarios. This article relates those issues and opportunities to the needs of the EEC transport sector policy formation and derives a set of research recommendations. The respective roles of the EEC and other institutions in developing and meeting the research needs are then discussed, concluding with some institutional proposals for the strengthening of the organization of the strategic research effort of the EEC in the transport sector.     

An assessment of advanced transport telematics evaluation procedures

This paper reviews and critically assesses procedures which have been adopted to evaluate Advanced Transport Telematics (ATT) projects. The importance of such a review at this juncture stems from the changing position of ATT in transport planning. ATT is no longer simply a field for experimentation, where technical feasibility and user acceptance are dominant concerns. Rather it is a potential mainstream contributor to the functioning of road transport systems. For this reason, ATT project appraisal needs to be developed to the same form, level of sophistication and consistency as the appraisal of conventional transport infrastructure investment. Based on the review set out here, we argue that appropriate methods have not yet been established which, in turn, poses a number of challenging questions, since current socio‐economic evaluation procedures are not directly suited to either measuring or evaluating many of the impacts which ATT schemes are implemented to achieve.     

Hysteresis in travel demand

This paper presents evidence that there is a hysteresis effect in the demand for transport usage with respect to price. Consequently the neoclassical concept of a smooth continuous demand curve is questioned. The author presents a hysteresis model whereby changes in demand and of demand are embraced in a single theory related to generalized cost.     

Book reviews

THE SEVENTH AUSTRALIAN TRANSPORT RESEARCH FORUM, by K. W. Ogden.

AIRLINE PLANNING: CORPORATE, FINANCIAL AND MARKETING by Nawal K. Taneja. Lexington, Mass., Lexington Books, 1982. 207 pp. (£19.50)

SOLVING LOCAL GOVERNMENT PROBLEMS: PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH IN CITIES AND REGIONS, by Charles E. Pinkus and Anne Dixson. George Allen and Unwin, London, 1981. (Hardback £20.00; paperback £8.95)

SCIENTIFIC MANAGEMENT OF TRANSPORT SYSTEMS, edited by N. K. Jaismal. Published by North‐Holland Publishing Company (U.S. $58.50)

TRANSPORTATION AND TRAFFIC ENGINEERING HANDBOOK (Second Edition), edited by W. S. Homburger, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1982. Prentice Hall, pp. 883.

ECONOMICS OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT, by C. A. Nash. Longman, London, pp. 194. (£6.95).     

Book review

AUTOMATED‐TRANSIT GUIDEWAYS: ANALYSIS AND DESIGN, by Clarence W. de Silva and David N. Wormley. 276 pp. (£33.00)     

Comparison of inter‐city bi‐modal split models

Using data collected from rail and air passengers on two inter‐city routes in the U.K., seven different model formulations were set up and tested in order to ascertain the most appropriate model format. As a result of the work carried out, it is concluded that a simple Entropy‐type model based on the theoretical work of A. G. Wilson and utilising a linear generalised cost function is the most suitable. Other useful parameters emerging from the work are perceived values of travel time, and a weighting factor for night travel.     

Scenario construction for transport planning

This paper argues that the types of uncertainty having the most serious consequences for transport planning are not captured by existing modelling procedures, which typically rely on a limited amount of sensitivity testing of plans based on extrapolative forecasts. It recommends as an alternative scenario‐based planning, an approach which is finding increasing application in private sector policy formation. The paper summarises the origins of scenario planning and the gradual broadening in its range of application, before going on to suggest methods of scenario construction suitable for transport planning applications. It considers the arguments for and against associating probabilities with scenarios and also addresses the problems of formulating transport strategies and evaluating them within the context of a scenario‐based approach to strategy choice.     

Some managerial and technical issues in transport sector development projects

In development projects there is only one problem, but it is huge: everything is connected to everything else. The authors separated from the whole the following important issues: (1) Project management and coordination: The Recipient Country’s Aid Coordination Unit (ACU) and Project Implementation Unit (PIU) staffed with competent local experts are necessary to hold the reform process memory. This issue is considered in the context of “Ownership” and “Government Leadership” as it is recognized in donor aid forums in the last decade. (2) Human resource development: Most technical assistance is oriented toward providing solutions, and the development of local capacities is ignored. The authors point out the importance of specially selected local experts—the “Technical Communication Officers”. (3) Institutional functioning: A ‘process consultation’ approach to institutional restructuring is promoted in which the Recipient has the key role. It is also recommended that the Recipient is the initiator of technical assistance in the projects. (4) Design standards are a recurrent and difficult problem. Recommendations are necessary how to transit to the new standards and how to mediate their approval process. (5) Procurement and management of consulting services: The authors argue that the recipient country qualified professionals have to be in the lead role. The vignettes in the paper are from the “real world” although they are modified slightly to protect privacy.     

Public sector comparators for UK PFI roads: inside the black box

A public sector comparator (PSC) represents the hypothetical, risk-adjusted cost of a project—such as a road scheme—when that project is financed, owned and implemented by government. A PSC is commonly used in public procurement decision-making as a yardstick against which private investment proposals are evaluated. Using original material released by the UK Highways Agency for the first time, the author recreated the PSCs used for the evaluation of the first eight road projects to be promoted under the UK’s private finance initiative (PFI). Alternative assumptions regarding project risks were modelled using different levels of optimism-bias uplift, and the impact on value-for-money of using different discount rates was evaluated. Public sector comparators have attracted considerable attention in the literature as they retain a pivotal role in the policy decision to use—or not use—private finance. However the fact that their detail is usually kept confidential by public sector procuring agencies—because of commercial sensitivities—has restricted informed discussion and open debate. Now the architecture of these comparators is laid bare for critical examination. It has generally been assumed that any reduction in the discount rate used in PSC calculations will favour conventional procurement over PFI-type contracting arrangements. The research reported in this paper demonstrates that the relationship between the discount rate and the attractiveness of using private finance is not as simple as has been assumed, and the outcome in terms of value-for-money is not as predictable as has previously been reported.