Incorporating crowding into the San Francisco activity-based travel model

Information produced by travel demand models plays a large role decision making in many metropolitan areas, and San Francisco is no exception. Being a transit first city, one of the most common uses for San Francisco??s travel model SF-CHAMP is to analyze transit demand under various circumstances. SF-CHAMP v 4.1 (Harold) is able to capture the effects of several aspects of transit provision including headways, stop placement, and travel time. However, unlike how auto level of service in a user equilibrium traffic assignment is responsive to roadway capacity, SF-CHAMP Harold is unable to capture any benefit related to capacity expansion, crowding??s effect on travel time nor or any of the real-life true capacity limitations. The failure to represent these elements of transit travel has led to significant discrepancies between model estimates and actual ridership. Additionally it does not allow decision-makers to test the effects of policies or investments that increase the capacity of a given transit service. This paper presents the framework adopted into a more recent version of SF-CHAMP (Fury) to represent transit capacity and crowding within the constraints of our current modeling software.     

Nudging people towards more sustainable residential choice decisions: an intervention based on focalism and visualization

Transportation - There have been numerous behavior change studies focused on sustainable travel mode choices. In this study we focused on the residential choices that in turn influence travel...     

Effects of road network on vegetation pattern in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan Province, Southwest China

The paper presents the results of a case study carried out in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China, to examine the relationship between vegetation dynamics and road network extension. We find that lower level roads had more effects on vegetation patches. Minor roads, including Class IV and Class V roads, contributed most to regional landscape fragmentation while high level roads had larger effect on vegetation dynamics in road effect zone. Further, road classes have close relationships with village distribution, topography fluctuation and landscape fragmentation. Topography, however had no direct relationship with vegetation pattern.     

Sequential optimization approach for the multi‐class user equilibrium problem in a continuous transportation system

We consider a city region with several facilities that are competing for customers of different classes. Within the city region, the road network is dense, and can be represented as a continuum. Customers are continuously distributed over space, and they choose a facility by considering both the transportation cost and market externalities. More importantly, the model takes into account the different transportation cost functions and market externalities to which different customer classes are subjected. A logit‐type distribution of demand is specified to model the decision‐making process of users' facility choice. We develop a sequential optimization approach to decompose the complex multi‐class and multi‐facility problem into a series of smaller single‐class and single‐facility sub‐problems. An efficient solution algorithm is then proposed to solve the resultant problem. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness and potential applicability of the proposed methodology.     

A causal inference approach to measure the vulnerability of urban metro systems

Transportation - Transit operators need vulnerability measures to understand the level of service degradation under disruptions. This paper contributes to the literature with a novel causal...     

Past, present and future state of the biogeochemical Si cycle in the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is one of many aquatic ecosystems that show long-term declines in dissolved silicate (DSi) concentrations due to anthropogenic alteration of the biogeochemical Si cycle. Reductions in DSi in aquatic ecosystems have been coupled to hydrological regulation reducing inputs, but also with eutrophication, although the relative significance of both processes remains unknown for the observed reductions in DSi concentrations. Here we combine present and historical data on water column DSi concentrations, together with estimates of present river DSi loads to the Baltic, the load prior to damming together with estimates of the long-term accumulation of BSi in sediments. In addition, a model has been used to evaluate the past, present and future state of the biogeochemical Si cycle in the Baltic Sea. The present day DSi load to the Baltic Sea is 855 ktons y^− 1. Hydrological regulation and eutrophication of inland waters can account for a reduction of 420 ktons y^− 1 less riverine DSi entering the Baltic Sea today. Using published data on basin-wide accumulation rates we estimate that 1074 ktons y^− 1 of biogenic silica (BSi) is accumulating in the sediments, which is 36% higher than earlier estimates from the literature (791 ktons y^− 1). The difference is largely due to the high reported sedimentation rates in the Bothnian Sea and the Bothnian Bay. Using river DSi loads and estimated BSi accumulation, our model was not able to estimate water column DSi concentrations as burial estimates exceeded DSi inputs. The model was then used to estimate the BSi burial from measured DSi concentrations and DSi load. The model estimate for the total burial of BSi in all three basins was 620 ktons y^− 1, 74% less than estimated from sedimentation rates and sediment BSi concentrations. The model predicted 20% less BSi accumulation in the Baltic Proper and 10% less in the Bothnian Bay than estimated, but with significantly less BSi accumulation in the Bothnian Sea by a factor of 3. The model suggests there is an overestimation of basin-wide sedimentation rates in the Bothnian Bay and the Bothnian Sea. In the Baltic Proper, modelling shows that historical DSi concentrations were 2.6 times higher at the turn of the last century (ca. 1900) than at present. Although the DSi decrease has leveled out and at present there are only restricted areas of the Baltic Sea with limiting DSi concentrations, further declines in DSi concentrations will lead to widespread DSi limitation of diatoms with severe implications for the food web.     

Seasonal variation of riverine nutrient inputs in the northern Bay of Biscay (France), and patterns of marine phytoplankton response

Seasonal variations in nutrient inputs are described for the main rivers (Loire and Vilaine) flowing into the northern Bay of Biscay. The river plumes are high in N/P ratio in late winter and spring, but not in the inner plume during the summer. Conservative behavior results in most nutrients entering the estuary and eventually reaching the coastal zone. Temporal and spatial aspects of phytoplankton growth and nutrient uptake in the northern Bay of Biscay distinguish the central area of salinity 34 from the plume area. The first diatom bloom appears offshore in late winter, at the edge of the river plumes, taking advantage of haline stratification and anticyclonic “weather windows.” In spring, when the central area of the northern shelf is phosphorus-limited, small cells predominate in the phytoplankton community and compete with bacteria for both mineral and organic phosphorus. At that period, river plumes are less extensive than in winter, but local nutrient enrichment at the river mouth allows diatom growth. In summer, phytoplankton become nitrogen-limited in the river plumes; the central area of the shelf is occupied by small forms of phytoplankton, which are located on the thermocline and use predominantly regenerated nutrients.     

Statistical modelling for ship propulsion efficiency

This paper presents a state-of-the-art systems approach to statistical modelling of fuel efficiency in ship propulsion, and also a novel and publicly available data set of high quality sensory data. Two statistical model approaches are investigated and compared: artificial neural networks and Gaussian processes (GP). The data presented is a publicly available full-scale data set, with a whole range of features sampled over a period of 2 months. We further discuss interpretations of the operational data in relation to the underlying physical system.     

Identifying a behaviourally relevant choice set from stated choice data

Stated choice experiments are designed optimally in a statistical sense but not necessarily in a behavioural choice making sense. Statistical designs, and consequently model estimation, assume that the set of alternatives offered in the experiment are processed by respondents with a specific processing strategy. Much has been studied about attribute processing using discrete choice methods in travel choice studies, but this paper focuses more broadly on processing of alternatives in the choice set offered in the experiment. This paper is motivated by the primary idea that the distribution of predicted choice probabilities associated with a set of alternatives defining a given choice set might provide strong evidence on the strategies that agents appear to use when choosing a preferred alternative. In an empirical setting of a choice set of size three, four model specifications are considered including a model for the selection of the best alternative in the full choice set and three variants of a best–worst regime. Using state choice data on road pricing reform, the empirical analysis examines which model specification delivers the most accurate prediction of the chosen alternative. The results suggest which alternatives really matter in choice making and hence the alternatives that might be included in a choice set for model specification.     

Large-scale road network vulnerability analysis: a sensitivity analysis based approach

Traditionally, an assessment of transport network vulnerability is a computationally intensive operation. This article proposes a sensitivity analysis-based approach to improve computational efficiency and allow for large-scale applications of road network vulnerability analysis. Various vulnerability measures can be used with the proposed method. For illustrative purposes, this article adopts the relative accessibility index (AI), which follows the Hansen integral index, as the network vulnerability measure for evaluating the socio-economic effects of link (or road segment) capacity degradation or closure. Critical links are ranked according to the differences in the AIs between normal and degraded networks. The proposed method only requires a single computation of the network equilibrium problem. The proposed technique significantly reduces computational burden and memory storage requirements compared with the traditional approach. The road networks of the Sioux Falls city and the Bangkok metropolitan area are used to demonstrate the applicability and efficiency of the proposed method. Network manager(s) or transport planner(s) can use this approach as a decision support tool for identifying critical links in road networks. By improving these critical links or constructing new bypass roads (or parallel paths) to increase capacity redundancy, the overall vulnerability of the networks can be reduced.