The mobility and accessibility expectations of seniors in an aging population

Populations of post-industrial nations are aging. With a growing number of people living well into their 80s and maintaining active lives, the transportation system will have to start focussing more closely on understanding their mobility and accessibility needs, so as to ensure that specific requirements of this large segment are not being ignored through the promotion of traditional ‘solutions’ and historical assumptions. This paper takes a close look at the evidence on the mobility needs and travel patterns of individuals over 64, distinguishing between the “young” elderly (aged 65–75 years) and the “old” elderly (over 75 years). This distinction is particularly useful in recognising the threshold of health change that impacts in a non-marginal way on mobility needs. This distinction also focuses transport planning and policy on a commitment to understanding the different needs of these sub-groups of the population, identifying services and facilities that better cater for these groups. We review the evidence, in particular, on the mobility characteristics of the over 75 years age group, including how they secure support through migration and settlement patterns. We use the empirical evidence from a number of western nations to identify the role of conventional and specialised public transport as an alternative to the automobile in meeting mobility and accessibility needs.     

Safety in the road environment: a driver behavioural response perspective

The existing literature on road safety suggests that a driver's perception of safety is an important influence on their driving behaviour. A challenging research question is how to measure the perception of safety given the complex interactions among drivers, vehicles and the road setting. In this paper, we investigate a sample of driver evaluations of the perception of safety associated with a set of typical road environments. A roundabout was selected as the context for the empirical study. Data was obtained by a computerised survey using the video-captured road and traffic situations. A controlled experiment elicited driver responses when faced with a mixture of attributes that describe the roundabout environment. An ordered probit model identified the contribution of each attribute to the overall determination of the perception of safety. An indicator of perceived safety was developed for a number of typical road and traffic situations and for different driver segments.     

Towards a practical method to establish comparable values of travel time savings from stated choice experiments with differing design dimensions

Individual’s process the information in stated choice (SC) experiments in many different ways. In order to accommodate decisions rules that are used in processing information, there is good sense in conditioning the parameterisation of stated choice design attributes on these rules. In particular, rules might be invoked to cope with the dimensionality of the SC design. In this paper, we investigate the impact of rules such as attribute aggregation and reference dependency on preference profiles for specific design attributes, as well as the design specification, as we vary the dimensionality of an SC design. The heteroscedastic extreme value logit model is estimated to identify the role of design dimensionality and attribute processing rules, after accounting for scale differences across sixteen pooled data designs The empirical evidence, drawn from a study in Sydney of car commuter route choice, suggests that accounting for the way that stated choice designs are processed, given their dimensionality, does make a statistically significant difference on measures of willingness to pay, as does accounting for scale differences between pooled data designs. This evidence has practical value in guiding the design of SC experiments and in adjusting results from different SC designs when comparing the evidence. We propose a simple adjustment formula to use in adjusting VTTS from different studies so that they are comparable. From a practical policy perspective, the evidence sends a warning about the risk of undervaluing mean VTTS if the attribute processing rules are not accounted for.     

Accident cost saving and highway attributes

Two semi-logarithmic regression models are developed to estimate accident rates and accident costs, respectively, for rural non-interstate highways in the state of Iowa. Data on 21,224 accidents occurring between 1989 and 1991 on 17,767 road segments are used in the analysis. Seven road attributes of these road segments are included as predictor variables. Applying the resulting regression models to a rather typical highway upgrade situation, the present value of the accident cost saving is computed. The sensitivity of the estimated cost saving to values for fatal, personal injury, and property damage only accidents is tested.Because factors other than road characteristics greatly influence accident costs, the models developed in this research explain a limited amount of the variance in these costs among road segments. Results of the analysis indicate that the most important attribute associated with accident costs is average daily traffic per lane, followed by conditions requiring passing restrictions and the sharpness of curves. Varying the values for the three categories of accidents shows that results are far more sensitive to the value of personal injuries than fatalities. The feasibility of using predictive models of accident costs in benefit-cost analyses of highway investments is demonstrated.     

Work and home location: Possible role of social networks

This research explores to what extent people’s work locations are similar to that of those who live around them. Using the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics data set and the 2000 decennial census, we investigate the home and work locations of different census block residents in the Twin Cities (Minneapolis-St. Paul) metropolitan area. Our aim is to investigate if people who share a residence neighborhood also share work locations to a degree beyond what would be explained by distanhe observed patterns is the role neighborhood level and work place social networks play in locating jobs and residences respectively.     

Making use of respondent reported processing information to understand attribute importance: a latent variable scaling approach

In recent years we have seen an explosion of research seeking to understand the role that rules and heuristics might play in improving the predictive capability of discrete choice models, as well as delivering willingness to pay estimates for specific attributes that may (and often do) differ significantly from estimates based on a model specification that assumes all attributes are relevant. This paper adds to that literature in one important way—it explicitly recognises the endogeneity issues raised by typical attribute non-attendance treatments and conditions attribute parameters on underlying unobserved attribute importance ratings. We develop a hybrid model system involving attribute processing and outcome choice models in which latent variables are introduced as explanatory variables in both parts of the model, explaining the answers to attribute processing questions and explaining heterogeneity in marginal sensitivities in the choice model. The resulting empirical model explains how lower latent attribute importance leads to a higher probability of indicating that an attribute was ignored or that it was ranked as less important, as well as increasing the probability of a reduced value for the associated marginal utility coefficient in the choice model. The model does so by treating the answers to information processing questions as dependent rather than explanatory variables, hence avoiding potential risk of endogeneity bias and measurement error.     

Some aspects of the structural design of a mat foundation for various soil conditions

There are several important structural design parameters in the analysis of a mat type structure for a jackup mobile offshore drilling unit. These consist of dimensions for the mat, soil foundation types, and structural loads. Methods for determining the proper dimension of the mat structure, modeling the structure and its loading cases, modeling the soil conditions and a method for identifying critical load cases for each element and load case is presented. By using a database approach for the finite element output for all of the various loading cases, a rational approach is presented which solves the problem of sorting and analyzing all of the elements and load cases, ensuring that all are included and none of the critical cases are missed.     

Dynamic Stability of Vehicle Systems via Poincaré Maps

Computer simulations of a driven vehicle are performed to assess and quantify the automobile stability. The analytical methodology is based on PoincarS maps and Floquet theory, which are commonly used to investigate the stability of periodic systems. The approach accommodates the study of the complex dynamics of vehicle locomotion under various configurations of the system. The proposed method does not require any knowledge regarding the inner structure of the vehicle model. Kinematic data is simply collected at the specific instants to conduct the analysis. It is found that this method has the potential for real time warning and control of vehicle instabilities.     

Shipbuilding disputes: the WTO panel rulings and the elimination of operating subsidy from shipbuilding

This paper sets out the developments in world shipbuilding policy that have occurred in the past decade. It reviews and outlines the situation that existed in the late 1990s, when an Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) agreement on the elimination of shipyard operating subsidies was tantalisingly close. After the Introduction, the second section provides a brief review of the development of the industry over the past three decades, setting the context for developments since 1997. The third section discusses the complaint of the European Union (EU) to the World Trade Organization (WTO) concerning the Republic of Korea's support for its shipbuilding sector, and its counterclaim over the EU's temporary defence mechanism (TDM). It is argued that the core of the EU's case at the WTO was flawed, and that the reintroduction of an operating subsidy via the TDM was a mistake. The only prospect for regularizing competition in this area lies in the negotiation of the OECD agreement that was completed, but not ratified, in 1994. Given the souring of relations between two of the main players in this area, the prospects for such a settlement seem remote. The fourth section uses Olson's theory of groups to argue that the European Commission's actions were driven primarily by industry pressure groups, and failed to consider the potential views of other European stakeholders, in particular the taxpayers. Given the failure of the EU's action at the WTO, the future direction of European shipbuilding policy will have to focus on strategies for internal development and improved industrial competitiveness.