Interval estimation in the calibration of certain trip distribution models

This paper argues for interval, rather than point, estimation when calibrating some variants of the trip distribution “gravity” models. Analytic expressions are derived for the approximate asymptotic covariances of least squares and maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in the impedance function under a variety of conditions. A comparative numerical example, and an application using migration flows, are also presented.     

Bus congestion, optimal infrastructure investment and the choice of a fare collection system in dedicated bus corridors

Microeconomic optimisation of scheduled public transport operations has traditionally focused on finding optimal values for the frequency of service, capacity of vehicles, number of lines and distance between stops. In addition, however, there exist other elements in the system that present a trade-off between the interests of users and operators that have not received attention in the literature, such as the optimal selection of a fare payment system and a designed running speed (i.e., the cruising speed that buses maintain in between two consecutive stops). Alternative fare payment methods (e.g., on-board and off-board, payment by cash, magnetic strip or smart card) have different boarding times and capital costs, with the more efficient systems such as a contactless smart card imposing higher amounts of capital investment. Based on empirical data from several Bus Rapid Transit systems around the world, we also find that there is a positive relationship between infrastructure cost per kilometre and commercial speed (including stops), achieved by the buses, which we further postulate as a linear relationship between infrastructure investment and running speed. Given this context, we develop a microeconomic model for the operation of a bus corridor that minimises total cost (users and operator) and has five decision variables: frequency, capacity of vehicles, station spacing, fare payment system and running speed, thus extending the traditional framework. Congestion, induced by bus frequency, plays an important role in the design of the system, as queues develop behind high demand bus stops when the frequency is high. We show that (i) an off-board fare payment system is the most cost effective in the majority of circumstances; (ii) bus congestion results in decreased frequency while fare and bus capacity increase, and (iii) the optimal running speed grows with the logarithm of demand.     

Mobility, social exclusion and well-being: Exploring the links

Building on a growing research foundation, transport policy makers have begun to associate the ability to be mobile with having a role in the facilitation of social inclusion. However, the further connection to well-being is not as well understood. This paper explores the association between a person’s travel patterns, their risk of social exclusion and self-assessed well-being. Key influences on social exclusion are discussed, with trip making emerging as a significant influence. Trip making is not a significant direct influence on well-being but does exercise an indirect influence through the impact on risk of social exclusion. The modelling process enables a value for additional trips to be estimated, the value being about four times the values derived from conventional generated traffic approaches. Similar high values are found in separate metropolitan and regional case studies, confirming the significance of the results.     

Energy facility siting in the urban coastal zone: Compatible or not?

Abstract

Most federal and state coastal laws were framed with a distinct emphasis on preservation of rural/recreational areas. Yet in recent years a rural/urban coastal dichotomy has emerged. This has been especially prominent in the siting of energy facilities since these operations are often water dependent; power plants, for example, need huge amounts of cooling water, and offshore oil and gas extraction requires onshore support facilities. Recently, this issue has gained special prominence on the East Coast with the commencement of offshore oil and gas exploration. A case study was conducted in Hudson County, New Jersey, in New York harbor. In this area five oil‐related facility proposals were rejected from 1972 to 1976, primarily due to citizen opposition. Citizen activists now see the urban waterfront as a special place to which they want access and amenity uses rather than a continuation of past, almost exclusive industrial development. Hudson County citizens share the aspirations of those in several urban coastal areas which have experienced waterfront revitalization, including Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, New Haven, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Seattle, and Toronto. Innovative siting which utilizes inland, rather than coastal, locations is suggested as one way to lessen urban/rural siting tensions.     

Competition and ownership in land passenger transport: the fourth international conference — Part 2

In the rail industry worldwide, there has been a search for new solutions, including restructuring, corporatization, and outright privatization, but the complexity of the rail industry offers special problems. In the Workshop we looked in detail at the British, Swedish, German, Australian (New South Wales) and New Zealand experiences, as well as considering more general issues such as cost structures, vertical separation and competitive tendering. Whilst it was agreed that some developments, such as greater contracting out, were clearly beneficial, other developments such as the separation of infrastructure from operations remained of uncertain value until the issues of efficient pricing and slot allocation were resolved.     

Deregulating the bus industry in Britain — (A) the proposals

Abstract

Over the past five years there has been an unprecedented stream of transport legislation in Britain, and policy has switched significantly towards the provision of services commensurate with market demand. The most important single document has been the recent publication of the White Paper on ‘Buses’ which could bring about dramatic changes in the road passenger transport industry. This introductory section outlines the arguments for and against change and then summarizes the proposals.     

A structural model of the use of automobiles by households: a case study of urban Australia

Central to the development of transport energy plans are predictions of automobile use. Together with a knowledge of the fuel efficiency of the vehicle fleet, usage acts interdependently to determine the amount of fuel consumed. In this paper we develop an econometric model system at the household level which treats vehicle use, fuel cost, and vehicle fuel efficiency as functionally interdependent. The data is drawn from Wave 1 of a4‐wave panel of Sydney households. The empirical evidence provides new insights into the influences on vehicle use and sets the context for continuing research efforts.     

美国拉臂钩技术发展及应用现状

我叫大卫·泽洛斯特里克,是斯泰勒工业有限公司的董事长.斯泰勒工业有限公司是美国第一家拉臂钩制造商,成立于1990年,座落于美国爱荷华州的加纳区.     

Highway expenditures and non-metropolitan employment

Using data on state highway expenditures and employment from 30 Minnesota non-metropolitan counties over a 25-year period, possible interactions between transportation and employment are investigated. While crosssectional analysis suggests no significant interactions, causality tests and time-series analyses indicate that highway expenditures affect manufacturing and retail employment, and employment influences expenditures. Although expenditure increases cause employment improvements in the short-term, long-term effects are less favorable. Highway expenditures respond quickly to increased needs caused by retail improvements.