Estimating the value of time: An additional misspecification error

This note is an extension of arguments made in an earlier article by J. Guttman in this journal. It points out a specification error in estimating the value of time when parking costs are added to modal running costs, to create a single cost variable. After developing arguments for separating modal costs from parking costs, estimates for Toronto are provided. These estimates demonstrate the magnitude of this type of aggregation bias.The author is indebted to Adolf Buse, Don Dewees and Richard Westin for helpful comments.     

Highway impacts on regional employment

Economic development is increasingly used by state DOT's as a criterion in arriving at highway funding decisions. However, there exists little evidence in the literature justifying the use of such a criterion, especially since existing techniques only determine correlations between highways and development. In this paper a time-series methodology is developed to differentiate the effects of highways on development from the effects of development on highways. This methodology includes structural plot analysis and causality tests and is based on pooled time-series and cross-sectional data on highway construction expenditures and county employment. The results indicate that increases in highway expenditures do not, in general, lead to statewide increases in employment other than temporary increases in the year of construction. However, in counties that are economic centers of the state, highway expenditures do have a positive long-term effect, i.e. employment increases above the normal trend of the economy. Such gains are apparently counterbalanced by employment losses in counties adjacent to the economic centers.     

A Review of Modelling Methods for Railway Vehicle Suspension Components

The dynamic behaviour of railway vehicles has been the subject of study for over a century but the advances in computing technology in the last few years have led to a very rapid development in the use of numerical techniques for solving railway vehicle dynamics problems. As these techniques have developed, and have been applied to ever more complex problems, the modelling of the vehicle components has increased in importance. Mathematical models of railway vehicles may now include components such as swing links, air-springs, trailing arm suspensions, load sensitive friction dampers, rubber bushes with hysteresis etc, all of which require sophisticated modelling techniques to produce accurate results. This paper looks at the developments that have taken place in this area, the background to the need for sophisticated models, the improvements in accuracy that can result and some of the difficulties in applying these techniques to the modelling of real situations.     

The structure of intercity travel demands in Canada: Theory tests and empirical results

This paper presents results of an econometric study study of intercity travel demands in Canada, 1961–1976. A translog form of reciprocal indirect utility function is used to test the structure of preferences in five demand sectors: three travel modes, goods and other services. Travel sector preferences are found to be time- and season varying but independent of average weekly work hours. The aggregate results indicate that the demands for all three passenger modes are price-elastic; bus and rail exhibit moderate complementarity, while rail and air are weakly complementary. The most important result derived from our tests of separability was that the demand system for the three passenger modes is inextricably tied to the rest of the economy, and therefore, may not be studied in isolation from the goods and other services sectors.     

The role of congestion of transportation networks in urban location and travel choices

Congestion of urban transportation systems results from an equilibrium of location and travel choices with generalized travel costs which increase with vehicle flows as well as other factors. The use of network equilibrium concepts in analyzing urban policies and evaluating alternative plans is examined. Issues arising in the use of network equilibrium models are described, and formulations of urban network prediction and design models are explored.     

Bus accidents,bus deregulation and London

Local bus services were deregulated in October 1986 in all areas of Britain except London. Government policy is to extend deregulation to London, though not in the current parliament. This paper analyses statistics on bus accidents from the national road accident database from 1981 to 1991 to compare results for London and the rest of Great Britain, and to consider whether deregulation has affected safety. The conclusions depend on the assumption that accident recording practice was not itself affected by deregulation.Bus accident rates are higher in London than on built-up roads elsewhere, partly apparently because of road traffic conditions in London, and partly because open-platform buses have higher accident rates involving occupants, including boarding and alighting accidents, than buses with doors.The main safety effects of deregulation operate through its effects on bus activity, though there is also some evidence that the rate per bus-kilometre of accidents involving other road users fell slightly. This may be due in part to the trend towards smaller buses associated with deregulation. Deregulation has led to a fall in bus patronage, and thus to a fall in occupant casualties; and to a rise in bus-kilometres, and thus to a rise in casualties among other road users in accidents involving buses. The number of fatal and serious casualties among other road users involved in bus accidents is larger than the number among bus occupants, so deregulation in London could lead on balance to a small rise in fatalities involving buses. On the other hand, the number of slight casualties among other road users involved in bus accidents is smaller than the number among bus occupants, so deregulation in London could lead to a fall in the number of slight casualties involving buses.Although there were fears that changes in the management of bus operations or financial pressures might lead to increased accident rates following deregulation, there no evidence in the findings to support such fears.This paper was first presented at the 3rd International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Surface Public Transport at Mississauga, Canada on 25–29 September 1993. The author is grateful to the Department of Transport for the speed and efficiency with which they provided special tabulations from the road accident database for this study.