Behavioural responses to vehicle emissions charging

Road pricing as an economic construct is not a new phenomenon in transportation research. Whilst fuel taxation and tolling of roads are common ways of raising revenue in many countries, these initiatives are primarily aimed at road infrastructure financing. Worldwide there has been growing interest in pricing structures designed to also manage the growing levels of traffic congestion and, in recent times, an increasing focus on generating reductions in carbon emissions from vehicle ownership and use. This paper presents a stated choice experiment undertaken in response to the increasing interest in the environmental externalities of travel behaviour. The aim of this choice experiment is to identify the potential to switch to more fuel efficient cars that emit lower emissions, under differing pricing and technology scenarios. Results indicate that annual and variable emissions surcharges targeted very specifically to vehicle emission rates have a noticeable role in modifying vehicle purchasing decisions.     

Bus rapid transit systems: a comparative assessment

There is renewed interest in many developing and developed countries in finding ways of providing efficient and effective public transport that does not come with a high price tag. An increasing number of nations are asking the question—what type of public transport system can deliver value for money? Although light rail has often been promoted as a popular ‘solution’, there has been progressively emerging an attractive alternative in the form of bus rapid transit (BRT). BRT is a system operating on its own right-of-way either as a full BRT with high quality interchanges, integrated smart card fare payment and efficient throughput of passengers alighting and boarding at bus stations; or as a system with some amount of dedicated right-of-way (light BRT) and lesser integration of service and fares. The notion that buses essentially operate in a constrained service environment under a mixed traffic regime and that trains have privileged dedicated right-of-way, is no longer the only sustainable and valid proposition. This paper evaluates the status of 44 BRT systems in operation throughout the world as a way of identifying the capability of moving substantial numbers of passengers, using infrastructure whose costs overall and per kilometre are extremely attractive. When ongoing lifecycle costs (operations and maintenance) are taken into account, the costs of providing high capacity integrated BRT systems are an attractive option in many contexts.     

Multi-fleet ferry service network design with passenger preferences for differential services

This paper investigates a multi-fleet ferry routing and scheduling problem that takes into account ferry services with different operation characteristics and passengers with different preferred arrival time windows. The logit model is used to represent passengers’ service choices. The full problem is formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem and solved with a heuristic procedure that first fixes the demand and then decomposes the resultant model by ferry services. At each iteration of the algorithm, the demand is updated and the relaxed problem is re-solved. Numerical results for the case of ferry service network design in Hong Kong are provided to illustrate the properties of the model and the performance of the heuristic.     

Assessing systematic sources of variation in public transport elasticities: Some comparative warnings

There is an extensive and continually growing body of empirical evidence on the sensitivity of potential and actual users of public transport to fare and service levels. The sources of the evidence are disparate in terms of methods, data collection strategy, data paradigms, trip purpose, location, time period, and attribute definition. In this paper, we draw on a data set we have been compiling since 2003 that contains over 1100 elasticity items associated with prices and services of public transport, and car modes. The focus herein is on direct elasticities associated with public transport choice and demand, and the systematic sources of influence on the variations in the mean estimates for fares, in-vehicle time, and headway obtained from 319 studies. The major influences on variations in mean estimates of public transport elasticities are the time of day (peak, all day vs. off-peak), the data paradigm (especially combined SP/RP vs. revealed preference (RP)), whether an average fare or class of tickets is included, the unit of analysis (trips vs. vkm), specific trip purposes, country, and specific-mode (i.e., bus and train) in contrast to the generic class of public transport.     

Does scale heterogeneity across individuals matter? An empirical assessment of alternative logit models

There is growing interest in establishing a mechanism to account for scale heterogeneity across individuals (essentially the variance of a variance term or the standard deviation of utility over different choice situations), in addition to the more commonly identified taste heterogeneity in mixed logit models. A number of authors have recently proposed a model that recognizes the relationship between scale and taste heterogeneity, and investigated the behavioural implications of accounting for scale heterogeneity in contrast to a term in the utility function, itself. In this paper we present a general model that extends the mixed logit model to explicitly account for scale heterogeneity in the presence of preference heterogeneity, and compare it with models that assume only scale heterogeneity (referred to as the scale heterogeneous multinomial logit model) and only preference heterogeneity. Our empirical assessment suggests that accommodating scale heterogeneity in the absence of accounting for preference heterogeneity may be of limited empirical interest, resulting in a statistically inferior model, despite it being an improvement over the standard MNL model. Scale heterogeneity in the presence of preference heterogeneity does garner favour, with the generalized mixed logit model an improvement over the standard mixed logit model. The evidence herein suggests, however, that compared to a failure to account for preference heterogeneity that is consequential, failure to account for scale heterogeneity may not be of such great empirical consequence in respect of behavioural outputs such as direct elasticities and willingness to pay. However additional studies are required to establish the extent to which this evidence is transferable to a body of studies.     

The Signs of the Times: Imposing a Globally Signed Condition on Willingness to Pay Distributions

A feature of recent developments in choice models that enable estimation of the distribution of willingness to pay (WTP) is that the sign of the distribution can change over the range. Behaviourally this often makes little sense for attributes such as travel time on non-discretionary travel, despite a growing recognition of positive utility over some travel time ranges. This can in part be attributed to the analytical distribution that is selected (except the cumbersome lognormal), many of which are unconstrained over the full range. Although a number of analysts have imposed constraints on various distributions for random parameters that can satisfy the single-sign condition, these restrictions are, with rare exception, only satisfied for the mean and the standard deviation estimates of a random parameter. When heterogeneity around the mean and/or heteroscedasticity around the standard deviation is allowed for, however, the constraint condition is often not satisfied. Given the popularity of distributions other than the lognormal, in order to satisfy the sign condition under the most general form of parameterisation, we need to impose a global sign condition. In this paper we show how this might be achieved in the context of the valuation of travel time savings for car commuters choosing amongst an offered set of route-specific travel times and costs. We illustrate the impact of the constraint under a globally constrained Rayleigh distribution for total travel time parameterisation, contrasting the evidence with a multinomial logit model and a range of other distributional assumptions within the mixed logit framework. Discussions with Bill Greene, John Rose, Ken Train and especially Juan de Dios Ortuzar have been invaluable as have the comments of referees.