A note on implicit consumer discounting of automobile fuel economy: Reviewing the available evidence

A key element in the long run response of the automotive market to higher fuel prices is consumers' willingness to pay for fuel economy improvements. Eight recent studies are examined and estimates of asset price/operating cost discount rates are derived for each. A critical comparison of results suggests that most are implausible. Plausible estimates range from 4 to 40% as a function of household income.     

Space,money, life-stage,and the allocation of time

Demographic, socioeconomic, seasonal, and scheduling factors affect the allocation of time to various activities. This paper examines those variables through exploration of the 1990 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey, which has been inverted to track activity duration. Two key issues are considered. First, how much can activity duration and frequency explain travel duration? The analysis shows activity duration has positive and significant effects on travel duration, supporting recent arguments in favor of activity based models. Second, which recent trend is the main culprit in the rise in travel: suburbanization, rising personal incomes, or female labor force participation? This paper examines the share of time within a 24-hour budget allocated to several primary activities: home, work, shop, and other. The data suggest that income and location have modest effects on time allocation compared with the loss of discretionary time due to working.

     

The Mixed Logit model: The state of practice

The mixed logit model is considered to be the most promising state of the art discrete choice model currently available. Increasingly researchers and practitioners are estimating mixed logit models of various degrees of sophistication with mixtures of revealed preference and stated choice data. It is timely to review progress in model estimation since the learning curve is steep and the unwary are likely to fall into a chasm if not careful. These chasms are very deep indeed given the complexity of the mixed logit model. Although the theory is relatively clear, estimation and data issues are far from clear. Indeed there is a great deal of potential mis-inference consequent on trying to extract increased behavioural realism from data that are often not able to comply with the demands of mixed logit models. Possibly for the first time we now have an estimation method that requires extremely high quality data if the analyst wishes to take advantage of the extended behavioural capabilities of such models. This paper focuses on the new opportunities offered by mixed logit models and some issues to be aware of to avoid misuse of such advanced discrete choice methods by the practitioner.     

Safety in the road environment: a driver behavioural response perspective

The existing literature on road safety suggests that a driver's perception of safety is an important influence on their driving behaviour. A challenging research question is how to measure the perception of safety given the complex interactions among drivers, vehicles and the road setting. In this paper, we investigate a sample of driver evaluations of the perception of safety associated with a set of typical road environments. A roundabout was selected as the context for the empirical study. Data was obtained by a computerised survey using the video-captured road and traffic situations. A controlled experiment elicited driver responses when faced with a mixture of attributes that describe the roundabout environment. An ordered probit model identified the contribution of each attribute to the overall determination of the perception of safety. An indicator of perceived safety was developed for a number of typical road and traffic situations and for different driver segments.     

Risk management methods for the liner shipping industry: the case of the Bunker Adjustment Factor

Through the implementation of the Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF), a shipowner is able to transfer the risk of fuel price fluctuation to the shipper. This and other surcharges are generally undesired by shippers who must pay this fee. The research presented provides an alternative method of risk management that is more effective than the current method, while responding to customer service demands for simplified tariffs. By strategic use of commodity futures, the shipowner is able to better reduce his/her risk exposure, transferring it to willing parties at the futures exchanges, thereby eliminating the need for the bunker surcharge.     

Aggregation of common-metric attributes in preference revelation and implications for willingness to pay

There is a growing interest in process heterogeneity in the way that individuals evaluate packages of attributes in real or hypothetical markets and make choices. We consider the role of the relative magnitude of pairs of attributes that are defined on a common metric (e.g., minutes or dollars), to look at the extent to which attributes might be added in preference revelation, in contrast to the commonly adopted single rule of compensatory behaviour. The focus is on a choice model specification that allows for different treatments of pairs of attributes across a sample, in contrast to studies that impose a single rule on all observations, and that does not require supplementary information on whether specific individuals claimed to have added up attributes; rather we structure a non-linear utility function that permits a probabilistic aggregation of each attribute. We translate this into a willingness to pay for travel time-savings for car commuters, in the context of tolling roads in Sydney, and contrast it with the results from the additive model, and a model where self-stated attribute processing information is taken into account. The empirical evidence suggests that mean willingness to pay increases when the addition rule is accounted for. This is a potentially important message for environmental applications where two or more attributes have a common metric.     

Assessing the economic significance of port activity: evidence from ABP Operations in industrial South Wales

The paper seeks to improve the evidence base surrounding regional ports and their economic impact. The paper reveals that industries dependent on the port infrastructure are actually key regional players, often operating in relatively fast growth sectors, and contributing to the economic and social needs of the local economy. The focus in the case element of the paper is the operations of Associated British Ports (ABP) plc in industrial South Wales. In examining the direct and indirect consequences of the port activity the paper adopts an input–output framework of analysis. A better contextualization of the economic impact of ports is shown to be necessary in the devolved policy-making environment in the region.     

Energy Consumption Analysis of Different Bev Powertrain Topologies by Design Optimization

Flexible layout of electric motors in battery electric vehicles (BEVs) has enabled different powertrain topologies to be used. However, these different powertrain topologies also affect the overall efficiency of energy conversion from the electrochemical form stored in the battery to the mechanical form on the driving wheels for vehicle propulsion. In this study, a methodology combining an energy-based BEV simulation model with the genetic algorithm optimization approach is applied to evaluate the energy efficiency of three different BEV powertrain topologies. The analysis is carried out assuming two different urban driving conditions, as exemplified by the New European Drive Cycle (NEDC) and the Japanese JC08 drive cycle. Each of the three BEV powertrain topologies is then optimized – in terms of its electric motor size and, where applicable, gear reduction ratio – for minimum energy consumption. The results show that among the three powertrain topologies, the wheel-hub drive without gear reducers consumes the least energy. The energy consumption of BEVs under the more aggressive JC08 drive cycle is consistently 8 % above that under NEDC for all three powertrain topologies considered.