A practical method to estimate the benefits of improved road network reliability: an application to departing air passengers

This paper develops and applies a practical method to estimate the benefits of improved reliability of road networks. We present a general methodology to estimate the scheduling costs due to travel time variability for car travel. In contrast to existing practical methods, we explicitly consider the effect of travel time variability on departure time choices. We focus on situations when only mean delays are known, which is typically the case when standard transport models are used. We first show how travel time variability can be predicted from mean delays. We then estimate the scheduling costs of travellers, taking into account their optimal departure time choice given the estimated travel time variability. We illustrate the methodology for air passengers traveling by car to Amsterdam Schiphol Airport. We find that on average planned improvements in network reliability only lead to a small reduction in access costs per trip in absolute terms, mainly because most air passengers drive to the airport outside peak hours, when travel time variability tends to be low. However, in relative terms the reduction in access costs due to the improvements in network reliability is substantial. In our case we find that for every 1 Euro reduction in travel time costs, there is an additional cost reduction of 0.7 Euro due to lower travel time variability, and hence lower scheduling costs. Ignoring the benefits from improved reliability may therefore lead to a severe underestimation of the total benefits of infrastructure improvements.     

Interurban road network planning model with accessibility and robustness objectives

Abstract

Road network planning (or design) problems consist of determining the best investment decisions to be made with regard to the improvement of a road network. In this paper, we propose an optimization model for long-term interurban road network planning where accessibility and robustness objectives are simultaneously taken into account. Three network robustness measures were defined to assess different robustness concerns: network spare capacity; city evacuation capacity; and network vulnerability. The results that may be obtained from the application of the model are illustrated for three random networks. Special attention is given to the implications of adopting each one of the robustness measures upon the optimum solution provided by the model.     

WTO与交通企业发展

刘光溪:入世谈判过程本身具有重大意义 入世谈判的过程对于中国经济的发展、中国经济体制改革的深化是一个巨大的教育过程.这次谈判不光是经济和贸易的交锋,还是两种文化、两种理念的碰撞,对中华民族价值取向、理性思维将产生深远的影响.     

Weekly travel-activity behavior

This paper describes a methodology for the analysis of multiday travel-activity patterns in which each multiday travel-activity pattern is characterized as a set of daily travel-activity pattern types. This approach facilitates identification of general weekly travel-activity pattern types as well as examination of the relationships between weekly travel-activity behavior and the hypothesized determinants of that behavior. This methodology is an extension of one developed previously by the author for analysis of daily travel-activity patterns. The methodology is applied to a sample of 112 weekly travel-activity patterns of employed people.The paper develops and examines a number of hypotheses concerning weekly and daily travel-activity patterns and their determinants. The empirical results show that general classes of weekly travel-activity behavior can be identified and that these classes of behavior are related to particular individual and household sociodemographic characteristics. The results also show that, for employed people, daily travel-activity pattern type selection is independent of the day-of-the-week, although there appear to be some specific day-of-week differences in the data used in this research. Further, the empirical results do not reject the hypothesis that the selection of daily travel-activity behavior in a two-stage process (selection of weekly behavior followed by conditional selection of daily behavior), is not influenced by socio-demographic characteristics beyond their impact on selection of the weekly pattern type.     

Intrapersonal variability in daily urban travel behavior: Some additional evidence

Researchers have used multiday travel data sets recently to examine day-to-day variability in travel behavior. This work has shown that there is considerable day-to-day variation in individuals' urban travel behavior in terms of such indicators of behavior as trip frequency, trip chaining, departure time from home, and route choice. These previous studies have also shown that there are a number of important implications of the observed day-to-day variability in travel behavior. For example, it has been shown that it may be possible to improve model parameter estimation precision, without increasing the cost of data collection, by drawing a multiday sample (rather than a single day sample) of traveler behavior, if there is considerable day-to-day variability in the phenomenon being modeled. This paper examines day-to-day variability in urban travel using a three-day travel data set collected recently in Seattle, WA. This research replicates and extends previous work dealing with day-to-day variability in trip-making behavior that was conducted with data collected in Reading, England, in the early 1970s. The present research extends the earlier work by examining day-to-day variations in trip chaining and daily travel time in addition to the variation in trip generation rates. Further, the present paper examines day-to-day variations in travel across the members of two-person households. This paper finds considerable day-to-day variability in the trip frequency, trip chaining and daily travel time of the sample persons and concludes that, in terms of trip frequency, the level of day-to-day variability is very comparable to that observed previously with a data set collected almost 20 years earlier in Reading, England. The paper also finds that day-to-day variability in daily travel time is similar in magnitude to that in daily trip rates. The analysis shows that the level of day-to-day variability is about the same for home-based and non-homebased trips, thus indicating that day-to-day variability in total trip-making is attributable to variation in both home-based and non-home-based trips. Day-to-day variability in the travel behaviors of members of two-person households was also found to be substantial.     

Spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics of particles, bacteria, and pEPS in Arctic winter sea ice

Abundances of particles, total bacteria, and particulate extracellular polymeric substances (pEPS) in Arctic sea ice were tracked through a winter season to examine the impact of combined extremes of low temperature and high salinity on the prokaryotic microbial community. Three horizons, centered at depths of 25, 45, and 65 cm from the ice surface, with mean seasonal temperatures of − 20, − 17, and − 13 °C, respectively, were sampled 16 times over the course of 12 weeks. Microscopic counts of bacteria (stained with DAPI) and particles (stained with acridine orange) reflected the dynamic conditions of the growing ice sheet, with greater abundances and variability in the upper ice horizons compared to the lower. The trend of higher particle and bacterial abundances in the upper ice was corroborated by several full-depth profiles taken during the expedition, which also displayed significantly decreasing cell abundance with depth. Bacterial abundance declined slowly and significantly with time in the upper and middle ice horizons, but not in the lowest, suggesting that much of the prokaryotic microbial community is resilient to extreme environmental conditions. We found that pEPS concentrations increased significantly with time and with decreasing temperatures in all depth horizons, which may lend support to the argument that sea ice bacteria produce EPS in situ as a cryoprotectant.     

A tour-based model of travel mode choice

This paper presents a new tour-based mode choice model. The model is agent-based: both households and individuals are modelled within an object-oriented, microsimulation framework. The model is household-based in that inter-personal household constraints on vehicle usage are modelled, and the auto passenger mode is modelled as a joint decision between the driver and the passenger(s) to ride-share. Decisions are modelled using a random utility framework. Utility signals are used to communicate preferences among the agents and to make trade-offs among competing demands. Each person is assumed to choose the best combination of modes available to execute each tour, subject to auto availability constraints that are determined at the household level. The households allocations of resources (i.e., cars to drivers and drivers to ride-sharing passengers) are based on maximizing overall household utility, subject to current household resource levels. The model is activity-based: it is designed for integration within a household-based activity scheduling microsimulator. The model is both chain-based and trip-based. It is trip-based in that the ultimate output of the model is a chosen, feasible travel mode for each trip in the simulation. These trip modes are, however, determined through a chain-based analysis. A key organizing principle in the model is that if a car is to be used on a tour, it must be used for the entire chain, since the car must be returned home at the end of the tour. No such constraint, however, exists with respect to other modes such as walk and transit. The paper presents the full conceptual model and estimation results for an initial empirical prototype. Because of the complex nature of the model decision structure, choice probabilities are simulated from direct generation of random utilities rather than through an analytical probability expression.     

Optimisation of active suspension control inputs for improved vehicle ride performance

A collocation-type control variable optimisation method is used in the paper to analyse to which extent the fully active suspension (FAS) can improve the vehicle ride comfort while preserving the wheel holding ability. The method is first applied for a cosine-shaped bump road disturbance of different heights, and for both quarter-car and full 10 degree-of-freedom vehicle models. A nonlinear anti-wheel hop constraint is considered, and the influence of bump preview time period is analysed. The analysis is then extended to the case of square- or cosine-shaped pothole with different lengths, and the quarter-car model. In this case, the cost function is extended with FAS energy consumption and wheel damage resilience costs. The FAS action is found to be such to provide a wheel hop over the pothole, in order to avoid or minimise the damage at the pothole trailing edge. In the case of long pothole, when the FAS cannot provide the wheel hop, the wheel is travelling over the pothole bottom and then hops over the pothole trailing edge. The numerical optimisation results are accompanied by a simplified algebraic analysis.