Delivering mobility as a service (MaaS) through a broker/aggregator business model

Transportation - Mobility as a service (MaaS) promises a bold new future where bundled public transport and shared mobility options (carsharing, ridesharing, bikesharing and microtransit) will...     

Spatiotemporal traffic forecasting: review and proposed directions

This paper systematically reviews studies that forecast short-term traffic conditions using spatial dependence between links. We extract and synthesise 130 research papers, considering two perspectives: (1) methodological framework and (2) methods for capturing spatial information. Spatial information boosts the accuracy of prediction, particularly in congested traffic regimes and for longer horizons. Machine learning methods, which have attracted more attention in recent years, outperform the naïve statistical methods such as historical average and exponential smoothing. However, there is no guarantee of superiority when machine learning methods are compared with advanced statistical methods such as spatiotemporal autoregressive integrated moving average. As for the spatial dependency detection, a large gulf exists between the realistic spatial dependence of traffic links on a real network and the studied networks as follows: (1) studies capture spatial dependency of either adjacent or distant upstream and downstream links with the study link, (2) the spatially relevant links are selected either by prejudgment or by correlation-coefficient analysis, and (3) studies develop forecasting methods in a corridor test sample, where all links are connected sequentially together, assume a similarity between the behaviour of both parallel and adjacent links, and overlook the competitive nature of traffic links.     

Expertise in decision-making for large infrastructure projects: from UK trunk roads to High Speed Rail 2

At the decision-making stage, a large-scale infrastructure project is essentially a broad concept, and this means the expert analyses will differ from each other and become contested over time, leading to the emergence of rival narratives. It is only where there is a limited range of expert analyses that the bases for decision-making will remain relatively clear-cut. Over time the contested nature of expertise can significantly inhibit the construction of effective narratives, either for or against the project, and also make decision-making more complex and problematic. Decision makers may also seek greater clarification through the construction of narratives that rise above these disputed areas of expertise, and the scientific evidence becomes less important. This paper examines the changing nature of contested expertise through a comparative analysis of political decision-making between UK trunk roads policy and the case of High Speed Rail 2, through the framework of epistemic communities.     

Perceived risk of lock-in in the front-end phase of major transportation projects

Transportation - Lock-in is defined as the tendency to continue with an inefficient decision or project proposal. The front-end phase is critical to project success, yet most studies have focused...     

Modification of the Highway Capacity Manual two‐lane highway analysis procedure for Spanish conditions

The US Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) methodology is used in Spain to evaluate traffic operation and quality of service. The effect of passing manoeuvre on two‐lane highway operational performance is considered through adjustment factors to average travel speeds and percent time spent following. The procedure is largely based on simulations in TWOPAS and passing behaviours observed during US calibrations in the 1970s. It is not clear whether US driving behaviour and vehicles' performance are comparable with Spanish conditions. The objective of this research is to adapt the HCM 2010 methodology to Spanish driver behaviour, for base conditions (i.e. no passing restrictions). To do so, TWOPAS was calibrated and validated based on current Spanish passing field data. The calibration used a genetic algorithm. The case study included an ideal two‐lane highway with varying directional traffic flow rate, directional split and percentage of trucks. The updated methodology for base conditions is simpler than the current HCM 2010 and does not rely on interpolation from tables. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Socially and environmentally appropriate urban futures for the motor car

In its relatively short life, the automobile has provided a level of mobility unlikely to have been feasible with a reliance on conventional forms of land based public transport. It has contributed in both a positive and negative way to the quality of life, transforming our cities, our way of life, and giving us a greater command over time and space. Concern over the undesirable social and environmental impacts has increased over time, with calls for governments to take action to reduce the automobile's dominant role. New investment in fixed-track public transport and bus priority systems together with strategies to discourage travel have been proposed to improve accessibility and to aid in cleaning up the physical environment. This paper reviews some of the issues facing society as it works to identify policies to achieve an economically and environmentally sustainabie future. There is a need for a broader set of policies to facilitate alternative land use-transport lifestyles while facing appropriate pricing signals. Some of the key issues are adjustments in the relative prices of location and transport, spatial incentives to make public transport economically viable (i.e. changing urban densities, zoning/incentive changes to allow more infill), road pricing (i.e. charging cars the economic cost of using the roads), new information technology systems (e.g. IVHS) to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of transport infrastructure, major improvements in the fuel efficiency of fossil fuelled vehicles, and alternative-fuelled vehicles (clean-air vehicles).     

The accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice setting: A re-examination and some controversial conclusions

Data is typically gathered from an individual respondent who represents the group or the household. This individual is often identified as the “primary decision maker” and is asked to provide responses as a proxy for the group given that the cost of interviewing each member individually is impractical and/or expensive. The collection of joint preferences is rarely undertaken, with the use of proxy responses not uncommon in travel behaviour research. Under such a framework, there exists an assumption that the primary decision maker has perfect knowledge of other group member preferences, and bargaining behaviour, and is able to synthesise this information when providing a response on their behalf. The validity of such an assumption however remains an open question, with recent research calling the reliability of proxy responses into account (Bateman and Munro, 2009). In this paper, using three models estimated in willingness to pay space, we examine the accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice experiment. We find that there is overlap between a proxy response and the own preferences of the individual providing the proxy choice, but while the proxy responses fail to represent the full preference heterogeneity that exists in the actual choices made by individuals, the proxy responses in aggregate provide a suitable replacement for actual data, subject to a number of caveats.     

Ridership drivers of bus rapid transit systems

We have collected information on 46 bus rapid transit (BRT) systems throughout the world to investigate the potential patronage drivers. From a large number of candidate explanatory variables (quantitative and qualitative), 11 sources of systematic variation are identified which have a statistically significant impact on daily passenger-trip numbers. These sources are fare, headway, the length of the BRT network, the number of corridors, average distance between stations; whether there is: an integrated network of routes and corridors, modal integration at BRT stations, pre-board fare collection and fare verification, quality control oversight from an independent agency, at-level boarding and alighting, as well as the location of BRT. The findings of this paper offer important insights into features of BRT systems that are positive contributors to growing patronage and hence should be taken into account in designing and planning BRT systems.     

A structural model of the use of automobiles by households: a case study of urban Australia

Central to the development of transport energy plans are predictions of automobile use. Together with a knowledge of the fuel efficiency of the vehicle fleet, usage acts interdependently to determine the amount of fuel consumed. In this paper we develop an econometric model system at the household level which treats vehicle use, fuel cost, and vehicle fuel efficiency as functionally interdependent. The data is drawn from Wave 1 of a4‐wave panel of Sydney households. The empirical evidence provides new insights into the influences on vehicle use and sets the context for continuing research efforts.     

Commentaries

Abstract

This paper surveys the technologies available for constructing a pervasive, national‐scale road pricing system. It defines the different types of road pricing, the methods by which a vehicle’s position can be determined, and then examines possible pricing regimes in the context of their technological requirements and implications. The issue of enforcement and the distribution of pricing policies are considered, and further complexities are outlined. An examination of the security aspects of such systems is made, focusing particularly on the need to ensure privacy using technological, rather than solely procedural, methods. The survey concludes that a pervasive, national‐scale deployment is unlikely to be technically achievable in the short‐term.